Saturday, October 6, 2007

On May Day, May Day, listen for the sound, of the ambulances singing rounds.

The Elvis Perkins-inspired news, today, that Sean May’ll miss the entire upcoming slate was big for two reasons. Firstly, you can pull the big Bobcat from your draft-board. As someone who’s selected May the past two seasons, I know the promise that the cuddly son-of-a-gun holds. If he was actually healthy and actually played 40 minutes per game, May would be some sort of Al-Jefferson-esque young super-stud; his two-year career producing per-40 averages of 19.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG. Those numbers, of course, are a stat-crunching pipedream. May has, in fact, never played 40 minutes in any single NBA game. And has played 30 minutes only six times. He’s only played 58 games, total, in two years; and his longest consecutive stretch of games has been 23. AC Green he ain’t. Given that former coach Bernie Bickerstaff implied, last season, that May was seemingly unwilling, or unable, to play through pain, the likelihood of him coming back strong from this surgery seems, well, unlikely; his far-in-the-future returns more likely to be a few more years dogged by injuries, then a mid-20s retirement. This May Day may mark the day that May’s career was over before it ever really begun; he going the way of his father, Scott, whose career was curtailed by degenerative knees.

Yet, even before May was completely ruled out for the season, I had already warmed to the following idea: the Bobcats were going to start Walter Herrmann and Gerald Wallace at forwards. Wallace, the Marion-esque specimen he is, actually excels as an undersized four, and Herrmann, like his countryman Andres Nocioni, is more than capable of mixing it up with bigger, burlier players. As interchangeable forwards, they could switch defensive assignments to suit; Wallace able, for example, to chase the quicker perimeter wings, Herrmann to bang with the larger fours. Where the Argentine Fabio really seems a lineup necessity, though, is in his shooting ability. If you signed off early on last season, either as Fantasy GM or NBA viewer, too tired of teams shelving their star players in the chase for lottery balls, you may’ve missed the amazing statistical explosion that happened down in Charlotte. Not only that the team played .500 ball for the final four months of the year —including a 22-18 record the last 40 games both Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor were in the lineup together— but that a big part of that late surge was Herrmann. The Argentine’d spent the first half of his rookie year in warm-ups, gazing on; he appearing in just 8 of the Bobcats’ first 37 contests, every appearance reeking of eau de garbage. It was mid-March before the human ponytail entered the rotation in any permanent capacity, yet in his final 18 games, Herrmann’s first go-round was infinitely more successful than lottery-pick teammate Adam Morrison, whose name has become but a punchline. Because, in that stretch —in which the ever-improving ’Cats went 10-8— Herrmann averaged 17.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG, all whilst shooting a ridiculous 40/83 from three-point range (48.1%!). That late-season splurge was actually just a match of Herrmann’s productivity; his per-40 minute averages 18.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 2.26 3PTM. Herrmann wasn’t simply a guy putting up more numbers in more minutes; he’d been that efficient all year long. By the time the season ended, his statistical prowess wasn’t just theoretical; his 46.1% clip from range (53/115) ranking second in the entire NBA, behind Jason Kapono. With Kapono on the move from Miami to Toronto, you could easily make the case that Herrmann could be going into the year as the league’s most reliable deep-ball threat. And that’s the very reason that the Bobcats need Herrmann on the floor, and the reason I believed he was bound to be a starter even before Sean May’s year was lost to the surgeon’s scalpel. Three of the Bobcats’ starters —Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor— aren’t shooters; even if Crash did cash in 120 three-pointers last year (at, we note, a career-‘high’ 32.5%). To make Sam Vincent’s hoped-for up-tempo offence really work, the Bobcats need as many shooters as possible on the floor. With May out, and Charlotte’s frontcourt depth suddenly looking scant, Herrmann should be a natural for major minutes. And, as any Fantasy GM knows, major minutes are the key to any player’s statistical productivity.

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