If you're a Yahoo! baller, like me, I'm sure you saw this column. Whilst it's an incredibly thorough piece of statistically-driven draft-preparation, I couldn't help but notice the following things:
Buser recommends you draft Marcus Camby.
Buser recommends you draft Ron Artest.
Buser recommends you draft Ricky Davis.
Buser recommends you draft Brad Miller.
Buser recommends you draft Cuttino Mobley.
Buser, apparently, also recommends war with Iran. How is this not the recipe for disaster? Whilst Camby is forever tantalising due to his robust totals, he's an injury waiting to happen; something you shouldn't wish for your second-round selection. Following the death of Eddie Griffin, Ron-Ron is duking it out with Zach Randolph for odds-on favourite in this year's NBA death-pool. Ricky-Ricky is not merely insane, but could be fantasy poison this season if the T-Pups bench him in favour of the kiddie corps. Brad Miller could conceivably retire halfway through the year if hurt again, and has regressed to the point where his only discernible skill is shoving little guys to the ground. Mobley may be no such injury/insanity risk, but he's reached the age (32) where two-guards start to die; last year finding Stevie Franchise's hetero lifemate posting the lowest PPG/RPG/APG averages he's hung since his rookie year (13.8, 3.4, 2.5), all whilst shooting 44% from the floor and hitting only 101 threes. If you're wanting a rapidly-aging SG who can't even crack the top-50 in 3PTM and will score probably 12 a game this year, get busy and pick the Cat at #103, and get ready to piss your season down the sink.
Whilst the statistically-driven approach seems a sound one, the advice handed down in such contravened so much draft-day wisdom. It just so happens, gentle reader, I've got some more basic fantasy draft rules that I've learnt, sometimes the hard way, over time. They'll serve you just as well in approaching your pick-making.
1. DRAFT A STUD POINT GUARD EARLY.
Steve Nash, the #1 assist guy in the game, averaged 11.6 a night. Stephon Marbury, the #20, averaged 5.5. That's 111% percent more assists from 1 to 20. In RPG, it's 37% (KG's 12.8 to Andris Biedrins' 9.3). In PPG, it's 51% (Kobe's 31.6 to the Boozehound's 20.9). The lesson: elite assist guys're rare. And, many of them go early; Nash, Kidd, Paul, Deron, B-Diddy will all be off the board in the first 30 picks of any league, and all of them will help you in so many ways. Late in the season, or even once the season begins, you'll be able to pick up guys who help in other categories easily; dirty-work rebounder types're a dime a dozen, and often will show up as the season progresses. But you can never, ever find APG on the waiver-wire, at any point of the year. So, I always, every season, grab at least one, more often two, PGs early. Lest I get stuck running Earl Watson as my PG-of-choice.
2. DRAFT A SHOTBLOCKER EARLY.
Once the fantasy season starts, there's going to be piles of BPG guys you can pick up as free-agents in your league, but they're there for a reason: they're bad. I think it's wise to make sure at least one your first 5 picks is not only a deluxe shotblocker, but a viable fantasy contributor in other functions. Pick yourself Shawn Marion and Dwight Howard, say, and you'll be largely set. Some people can handle having Darko or Joel Przybilla or some such shotblocking specialist on their squad just for the one category, but I'm not one of those people. So get on a rejector early. For: the 1-20 difference (Marcus Camby's 3.3 BPG to Sheed's 1.6) is an extra 106%.
3. PICK SECOND-YEAR PLAYERS.
As a general rule, nearly every NBA Player who's anybody has a great second year. The list of Most Improved Player winners is filled with sophomore studs, from Gilbert Arenas to last year's gong, Monta Ellis. Last year, I won myself a league title in a ridiculously-competitive head-to-head comp by filling a squad with them, running out a lineup featuring: Ellis, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack, and David Lee. Had I also drafted Andris Biedrins rather than Sean May (ahhh, the long-held regrets) in the last round, as I was considering, my second-year bonanza would've looked even better. It's like this every year: fleeting rookie promise is turned into prolific soph production. Whilst last year's lame-ass draft class should theoretically mean this year is an exception to the rule, that ain't the case, o homie my homie. As is the way, there's piles of guys who're gonna go much better the second time around, like: Rudy Gay, Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Walter Herrmann, Ronnie Brewer, Craig Smith, Daniel Gibson, and Rajon Rondo. Providing you don't reach on them, these cats have a great chance of exceeding expectations, which is what draft-day picking should be all about.
4. STAY AWAY FROM ROOKIES.
Every year there's maybe two or three rookies who're consistent enough to earn fantasy love. This year, Kevin Durant and Al Horford are the only youngsters seemingly worth an investment, with Juan Carlos Navarro, Al Thornton, Luis Scola, and 35-year-old Yi Jianlian the 'old' rookies, who hold far less risk due to their advanced-age. But anyone drafting Mike Conley Jr., Jeff Green, or Corey Brewer either better be incredibly patient or already ready to waive these guys, because the first couple months of the season will be loaded with up-and-down minutes and more struggles than promise. Personally, I'm thinking that even Durant and Scola are, at the moment, going earlier than perhaps is most wise; for neither of them seem to be guaranteed statistical goldmines. Whilst we all love the allure of the new, owning the freshman rarely makes for a contented, restful fantasy GM.
5. PIN YOUR HOPES ON ONLY ONE MASSIVE INJURY-RISK GUY.
In a draft in a 10-team league that I took part in on Saturday, one GM selected: Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O'Neal, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Peja Stojakovic. As well as the 'stash pick' of Elton Brand. Oh, and Kobe Bryant, too, whose commitment to the season seems a shade questionable, and for whom an Answer-like stint on the sidelines isn't entirely out of the question. Whilst that's a glittering array of talent to rake in, what're the odds that all of them are going to remain fit, focused, and productive for the entire season? Sure, it's a rotisserie league with a four-man bench, so it's more a calculated risk. But I prefer to always err on the side of caution; especially in a head-to-head league. If you're going to select Dwyane Wade early, don't follow it up by picking Marcus Camby or Gerald Wallace. Not only will your season falls to pieces, but you'll become the most annoying GM in your league; the one forever whining "imagine how good my team'd be if Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels, and Jermaine O'Neal weren't hurt!". Oh, wait, that's Larry Bird. But, you get the drift.
6. DON'T BE THE 'IF ONLY' DRAFTER.
This is the logical extension from the above. It's not ideal, after the draft, to have a list of 'If Onlys' so long that projecting a successful season for yourself is loaded with out clauses. For example: if only Marcus Camby stays healthy, and if only Ron Artest doesn't get arrested, and if only Ricky Davis doesn't quit on the season and/or ride the pine, and if only Brad Miller is still able to run by February, and if only Cuttino Mobley isn't yet completely washed up, then, hey, I could actually be pretty okay! Without doubt, that shit never works out. Don't play that game.
7. DON'T PICK GUYS YOU HATE WATCHING IN REAL LIFE.
Once known as the 'Mike Dunleavy Rule', after this preseason I think I can happily change this to the 'JJ Redick Rule'. Sitting down to watch a Cavs/Magic exhibition from China the other day, said rule was manifest in all its ugliness. Having made some ongoing joke out of the Redick-as-sleeper conundrum earlier, I suddenly realised that that joke isn't funny anymore; it's too close to home and it's too near the bone. For one simple reason: JJ has a fauxhawk! If you thought it was impossible Redick could look more of a dick, you've been proven wrong, my friend. Watching the Magic slug it out over an incredibly-mediocre Cavs lineup, I yearned not for JJ to rain them down from deep, but for the newly-bald Zydrunas Ilgauskas to accidently elbow him in the head. Repeatedly. As always, the rule is: Don't do it. Sure, you could load your team up with Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and the roster of the 2007 World Champion San Antonio Spurs, but to do so would be to commit to a season filled with joylessness.
8. PICK GUYS WHO EVERYONE ELSE HATES.
This is the asterisk to the 'JJ Redick Argument', and it's a special circumstance that is far more rare. Let's, for the sake of continuity, call this the 'Manu Corollary'. Sometimes a guy is so roundly detested by all and sundry that it effects their draft-day value to an extreme degree. Case In Point: Manu Ginobili. Everyone hates this guy: think the 'hustling' Spurs, think flopping like an extra in a Western who's just been shot, think berating the refs in hysterical pantomime, think that gleaming baldspot and its hypnotic powers. I hate him, you hate him. We all hate him. And he's worth hating. But, how far do you ride the hatred? In my past Saturday draft, I picked Manu in the ninth round, at #85. Right after someone selected... Cuttino Mobley! Rolling with the Manu Corollary, I overrode the Redick Rule; that far into things, passing up Manu was ridiculous. He finished #16 in the Yahoo! game last year, and should certainly land in the top 50 again this year. Should that happen, I could even learn to... love... Manu, in my own special way.
9. DON'T BE AFRAID OF LEANING TOWARDS YOUR FAVOURITES.
Whilst I'm not advising any crazy reaches, if you're weighing up between two guys, and you just happen to really love the real-life game of one of them, always go with your heart. If Andre Iguodala makes your heart flutter like a palpitating schoolgirl, and Cousin Vinny makes you want to vomit hunks of white-hot rage every time he goes down like he's shot, hobbles off the court, then miraculously returns five minutes later to launch more fadeway jumpers and do that impossibly-moronic motorcycle-revving hand gesture after every dunk, well, the choice between such close-ranked ballers should be nothing to do with statistics.
10. DON'T DRAFT BEN WALLACE.
Trust me: this (career) isn't going to end well.
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