You would’ve copped long odds, back in the long hot summer, that any of these krazy kidzzz would’ve ended up on active NBA rosters, let alone be big enough contributors that they could clock up enough statistical relevance to be considered worthy of fantasy basketball ownership. Yet, with the preseason hosed and the real games set to start, here are five guys who came on late, and played well enough that they’ve become at least blips on the fantasy radar.
BRANDON BASS, Mavericks.
In his two seasons playing for his (kinda) homestate Hornets, the Bayou Bengal clocked up a mighty 50 appearances, almost all of which were meaningless. Whilst it’s fun to work out that Bass averaged 10.2 points and 10.3 rebounds per 40 minutes in his scant Oklahoma City career, it was hard to see how that would apply when Bass latched onto the Mavericks over summer, seemingly as the roster’s 17th man. But after an impressive preseason —11.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 54.4 FG%, in 25.0 MPG— the 6’8 forward looks set to open the season in the Mavs’ rotation. With Erick Dampier out for the foreseeable future, Didier Ilunga-Mbenga hurting/hurting-for-coordination, and Nick Fazekas the least athletic NBA player since Todd MacCulloch, Bass actually shapes as the only possible frontcourt reserve in Avery Johnson’s arsenal. Whilst the 12 MPG backing up the Diggler ain’t much to crow about, keep in mind that DeSagana Diop played only 18 MPG last season, and is so foul prone that it’d be nearly impossible for him to play any more than about 24 a night. Whilst Johnson’ll surely play some smallball with either Josh Howard or Devean George at the four and Dirk at the five, I’m finding it hard to find a scenario where Bass doesn’t average at least the 25 minutes an outing he did in the exhibition.
AARON GRAY, Bulls.
Early in the exhibition season, as the big white Gray showed NBA-level skill to go with his monster frame, rumours began to float that the ramblin’ Panther was already shaping up as a starter in Scott Skiles’ mind, despite having never played an NBA game. With 6’7 Ben Wallace already locked into the first five, favouring Gray over second-year future-stud Tyrus Thomas, the rationale went, would save Chicago from a starting unit whose tallest player was 6’8, and whose average height is a tiny 6’5. Recent ankle-related developments in Chicago may’ve cemented this Gray-the-starter notion in stone. Last week, Ben Wallace, Joakim Noah, and Tyrus Thomas all were hurt in the Bulls’ final preseason barney. Whilst Thomas was called, thereafter ‘day-to-day’ with a foot strain, both Wallace and Noah were outed by Chicago as being out ‘indefinitely’ with sprained ankles. Given this was only three days ago, it might be a safe bet that neither will play when the Bulls open their season Wednesday in the cultural global epicentre that is East Rutherford. And, thus, Gray looks likely to be in the opening lineup. Whilst it’s possible he’ll be little more than the big white space-eater inside, after a preseason in which he posted 9.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG (incl. 1.8 offensive), 53.6 FG% in only 16.7 MPG, Gray should definitely be on the radar of size-seeking fantasy GMs.
JASON SMITH, Sixers.
In the leadup to the draft, piles of professional opinionaters were proffering Jason Smith as their ‘most likely to be a bust’ type choice, going simply by his size (seven feet), his skin colour (as the cold driven snow), and the fact that he suited up for Mountain West powerhouse Colorado State. How many of these “draft experts” had bothered to actually watch Smith play is another matter; for anyone who watched the generically-named big-man blossom from skinny small-forward freshman to dominating five-spot junior surely would’ve been impressed by Smith’s most un-white combination of quickness and skill. Whilst his exhibition stats aren’t exactly stuffed —8.2 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, a dreadful 38.6% from the floor, in 26.2 MPG— Smith has never seemed overmatched, and has looked roughly ten trillion times better than project lottery-pick Thaddeus Young, and is playing in a Philly frontcourt aching for real, live, healthy big-man bodies. I can’t imagine he’ll do much of anything in the season’s beginnings, but Smith’s shown some intriguing signs for a guy who no one expected absolutely anything of. At all.
VON WAFER, Nuggets.
With the groin-poppin’ injury to ever-chuckin’ Chucky Atkins, the eye-poppin’ bricklayin’ of Yakhouba Diawara, and the continued miseducation of Earl Smith III, the spot on the floor between the Answer and the Backpedaller is far from settled. The smokie to end all smokies in this scenario is Von Wafer, a 6’5, fleet-footed, unrepentant gunner who, as luck has it, hasn’t been arrested a single time this year. Fresh off of averaging 21 points an outing in the D-League last season, and 24.2 PPG in summer league, Wafer’s shown some serious jacking-it-up abilities in the preseason. Without a hole in Furious George’s rotation, Wafer’s chances to make a splash this season appeared minimal. But with Atkins on the sideline and Smith perhaps headed to the doghouse, Wafer could come on strong.
SHAWNE WILLIAMS, Pacers.
Given that he’s out for the first three games of the season for brainless goondom, you can’t exactly watch Williams on the opening night, then pounce upon him if he gets the right amount of court-time. For, there’s no doubt that the young, ridiculously-talented, rangy wing could produce if, say, poured upon the court for as much time as his fellow sophomore Rudy Gay will hit the floor this year. In his fleeting glimpses last year, Williams showed his tantalising, lottery-level package of skills —namely: athleticism, shooting, and defence— when he was trotted out onto the court. If we’re to go by his summer-league, Williams could actually produce in actual meaningful minutes this season, if Coach Jim O’Brien —and his famously-retooled offence— find him a place. Given Danny Granger’s Indiana’s only locked-in piece at the moment, that may not be so easy; but, in the four exhibition tilts in which he hit the court for more than 20 minutes, Williams went off. In 28 MPG, he hung up 17.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.7 BPG, and 8/23 threes (including a 5/10 versus Chicago). At the moment, Williams looks caught in a numbers crunch; but if O’Brien’s Pacers could actually push the pace and do 110+ type games in the regular season, Williams could be intriguing. And if Granger were to go down, he’d be the prized waiver-wire pounce.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Chucky Atkins, Groin Popper, Will Miss 6-8 Weeks.
30-something chucker Chucky Atkins felt his groin "pop" when trying to guard Marcus Banks in the Denver Nuggets' second-to-last exhibition run Thursday, surely feeling more pain than any man need ever know. Whilst Atkins —who is no relation to Dr. Robert Atkins, creator of the high-protein, low-carbohydrate Atkins Diet— had shaped up as a genuine fantasy contributor when signed by the McNuggets in the summer, he was struggling in preseason even prior to the groin-popping. And, now, with a lengthy stint on the sidelines, the veteran guard has come close to losing all of his fantasy value.
Of course, his absence will open up minutes for others, and with 74-year-old bricklayer Anthony 'Remember When My Agent Forgot To Exercise My $4.1mil Option?' Carter thankfully injured, it won't mean him. Really, there're two guys who would shape up as likely contributors in the absence of Atkins. And neither of them are the likely fifth-starter for Denver, Yakhouba Diawara. Nor are they, at this stage, Von Wafer, who I'm quietly eyeing off as late-rising sleeper.
Firstly, there's our old friend JR Smith. When not hitting the town, spitting on girls, or killing friends in unintentional vehicular homicide, the most notorious JR since Rider is known as an unrepentant jacker from deep. Last year, in his first 41 appearances, JR threw up 292 threes —7.1 per night!— thereby gaining a well-deserved reputation as the most conscience-free of 'volume shooters'. Of course, late in the year, Coach Karl tired of the hired goon, riddling his final months with DNP-CDs and garbage-time appearances; and, this season, the Nuggets've been reportedly seeing if there're any trade takers out there for young, hyper-talented, possibly-crazy wings. Yet, Smith has one characteristic that sets him apart from every other player on the Nuggets roster: he's a shooter. If we're to go by the preseason, Smith isn't a particularly good shooter, his six exhibition appearances finding the 6'6 gunner gunning it for 4/26 from range. Yikes. Of course, lacking any other guys with ridiculous range, and playing at the crazy pace that he favours, Furious George may be forced to function with a short memory. And, if he doles out even a decent amount of court-time for JR, Mr.Smith is immediately back into fantasy play as a deep-ball shooter.
A more intriguing possibility is the Vanilla Gorilla, Linas Kleiza. Though the hulking Lithuanian would probably best be suited to a Nocioni-esque role as undersized, hustling, ornery four, Karl has, at times, dared to play the 6'8 beast at shooting guard. Whilst it mightn't seem to make immediate sense, remember that Karl played Boobs Patterson at the two down the stretch in '06; in a lineup —Andre Miller, Melo, K-Mart, Camby— that actually featured no shooters. Kleiza, at least, has a deep-ball stroke, even if it's not the sweetest. And whereas Smith struggled in the exhibitions, Kleiza's preseason was impressive: 15.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5/15 threes, 52.1 FG% in 27.5 MPG. Whilst he's unlikely to be hanging up anywhere near that once Melo, K-Mart, Camby, Nenê and the gang are all on the court every night, Kleiza holds definite intrigue as a wait-and-see possibility heading into the year.
Of course, his absence will open up minutes for others, and with 74-year-old bricklayer Anthony 'Remember When My Agent Forgot To Exercise My $4.1mil Option?' Carter thankfully injured, it won't mean him. Really, there're two guys who would shape up as likely contributors in the absence of Atkins. And neither of them are the likely fifth-starter for Denver, Yakhouba Diawara. Nor are they, at this stage, Von Wafer, who I'm quietly eyeing off as late-rising sleeper.
Firstly, there's our old friend JR Smith. When not hitting the town, spitting on girls, or killing friends in unintentional vehicular homicide, the most notorious JR since Rider is known as an unrepentant jacker from deep. Last year, in his first 41 appearances, JR threw up 292 threes —7.1 per night!— thereby gaining a well-deserved reputation as the most conscience-free of 'volume shooters'. Of course, late in the year, Coach Karl tired of the hired goon, riddling his final months with DNP-CDs and garbage-time appearances; and, this season, the Nuggets've been reportedly seeing if there're any trade takers out there for young, hyper-talented, possibly-crazy wings. Yet, Smith has one characteristic that sets him apart from every other player on the Nuggets roster: he's a shooter. If we're to go by the preseason, Smith isn't a particularly good shooter, his six exhibition appearances finding the 6'6 gunner gunning it for 4/26 from range. Yikes. Of course, lacking any other guys with ridiculous range, and playing at the crazy pace that he favours, Furious George may be forced to function with a short memory. And, if he doles out even a decent amount of court-time for JR, Mr.Smith is immediately back into fantasy play as a deep-ball shooter.
A more intriguing possibility is the Vanilla Gorilla, Linas Kleiza. Though the hulking Lithuanian would probably best be suited to a Nocioni-esque role as undersized, hustling, ornery four, Karl has, at times, dared to play the 6'8 beast at shooting guard. Whilst it mightn't seem to make immediate sense, remember that Karl played Boobs Patterson at the two down the stretch in '06; in a lineup —Andre Miller, Melo, K-Mart, Camby— that actually featured no shooters. Kleiza, at least, has a deep-ball stroke, even if it's not the sweetest. And whereas Smith struggled in the exhibitions, Kleiza's preseason was impressive: 15.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5/15 threes, 52.1 FG% in 27.5 MPG. Whilst he's unlikely to be hanging up anywhere near that once Melo, K-Mart, Camby, Nenê and the gang are all on the court every night, Kleiza holds definite intrigue as a wait-and-see possibility heading into the year.
Mike Bibby, Ghoulish Clown, Will Miss 6-8 Weeks.
Hot-ass breaking newzzz that Mike Bibby will not be endlessly hoisting threes for the Sacramento Kings and/or your ailing fantasy squad for the immediate future. Possessed by the ghost of Cesar Romero, Bibby will undergo 6-8 weeks of intensive exorcism, in hopes of ridding the 6'2 point-guard of the freakish spectre of one of history's most frightening clowns, a "murderously insane supervillain" whose evil, evil presence is believed to have effected the ten-year-veteran's three-point stoke through the exhibition season.
Whilst the Kings're heading for the NBA's toilet, post haste, the Bibble pine-time will, of course, shift fantasy values elsewhere on the roster. As always, it'll be a ripple effect: Ron Artest —a known coulrophobic— will probably do more playmaking, Kevin Martin will get more shots off, Brad Miller will push more little guys to the ground, and Quincy 'Light It Up' Douby should get some sweet, sweet burn. But two guys stand to benefit most from the absence of Pogo The Clown: Francisco Garcia and John 'For Some Reason I Pronouce The L' Salmons.
Salmons has played plenty of point in his career, and is a happy facilitator; a 'blender' who'll always give the ball up (possibly b'cause of his, uh, 'so so' shooting stroke). And, in his career, Johnny Sal has shown he's at his best when star teammates go missing; he seemingly only playing well in the absence of the Answer in Philadelphia, and, last year, performing admirably when Ron-Ron was on the bench. In his 19 starts last year, Salmons posted 11.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.0 APG, and 1.2 SPG. Should Salmons either become starter, or log major 30+ type minutes off the bench, he'll become a legit, solid fantasy play.
Garcia is more the 'sleeper' in this scenario; a guy who'd be unowned even in deep fantasy leagues at the point. Unless, of course, one of the GMs therein rode him down-the-stretch last campaign. For, Garcia would've earnt quite the cult following amongst statsheet geeks for the two-week turn he submitted in the season's closing days; aka: fantasy basketball finals. Over the 9 Sacto dribbles in the season's final fortnight, Garcia went for: 15.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, and 1.2 3PG, with sweet percentages from the floor (48.4), deep (37.9%), and the line (90.3%). Yet, what makes this line so glowing is that Garcia did it in just 28.9 MPG, including only 3 starts. With Bibby out, Garcia could be pressed into extra minutes, and, quite possibly, could average said 29 per night. And, it's possible that Franny Glass could even run some one; new coach Bill Fuller having been an assistant at Louisville when Rick Pitino played the skinny Dominican at the lead guard spot. Whilst Salmons is the solid bet, at this point, Garcia is the make-good gamble; especially for anyone blessed with a league bearing either a deep bench and/or extra-large rosters.
Of course, when Bibby arrives —like foreign mail-order— in 6-8 weeks, all of this will change again. Except for the fact that Sacramento, on the floor, will be horrific this year; Evil Clown at point or no.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Extra! Extra! Isiah Thomas idiotic GM!
Isiah Thomas is an idiot. Not just that he ain't afraid to call a bitch a bitch, knows a ho from a ho, and don't give a fuck about no white people. But the league's most brainless GM just continues to get it wrong. After earning plenty of misguided plaudits for his early-draft-night trade of Steve Francis and Channing Frye for Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, and Fred Jones, Isiah's moves thereafter have been indefensible.
In the second round of this year's draft, Thomas made another deal with Portland; acquiring 53rd-overall selection Demetris Nichols from the Blazers for a 2008 second-rounder. Aside from the fact that Nichols —a jump-shooting, skinny small-forward— seemed to duplicate the skill-set of the Knicks' first-rounder Wilson Chandler —a jump-shooting, skinny small-forward— nearly exactly, the trade was curious for the fact that the Knicks had roughly 20 players, nine of them small-forwards, on the roster at the time.
It seems that, in hindsight, Thomas was hoping to convince Nichols to go spend a year or so playing in Europe, where he could develop at the cost of another organisation; returning when, the hope goes, New York's logjam of a roster had cleared up. Only Nichols had the temerity to show up, trying to earn the roster spot Isiah wasn't holding open for him.
Even though, at that point, the roster seemed overloaded, Thomas wouldn't stop tinkering. On September 30, on the eve of training camp, he acquired rookie point-guard Jared Jordan —a pass-first, pasty-skinned point guard— from the Clippers for cash considerations. This came after the Knicks had bought out the remainder of the contract of Dan Dickau —a pass-first, pasty-skinned point guard— who would then turn around and sign with, uh, the Clippers.
This sort-of-trade of whiteboy PGs clearly confused Zeke; as, on October 15, after a Knicks practice, he said: "I think Dickau is going to be a good player on our team when he's healthy"; even though Dickau never even made it training camp. Damn those crackers, my nigga. They all look the same.
Having given up cash for Jordan, and next year's second rounder for Nichols, you'd imagine that both guys would've ended up on the final 15-man roster. Sure, they'd spend all year in the NBDL, most likely, but it's always nice to develop young guys. And yet, both youngsters were cut. Free to go elsewhere. Unwanted by the Knicks.
Remaining on the roster, however, is one Jerome James. Since being inked up by —who else?— one Isiah Thomas, the colossal free-agent bust has only been notable for one thing: averaging 12.8 fouls per 48 minutes. Last year, in his few fleeting appearances for the Knicks, the morbidly-obese, 7'3 behemoth committed 73 fouls whilst scoring just 76 points; hitting 41.8% from the floor despite his close proximity to the basket. Though he may've had a few mediocre 5-and-4 type years in Seattle, James is clearly done. Forever injured, rarely motivated, raking in an obscene amount of money, and soon to turn 32 years old, James should've been a camp casualty.
Maybe James wouldn't have left for anything less than the $18mil still left on his three remaining years, but, given the Knicks are already shelling out obscene amounts of money to pay for overpaid players past and present and/or sexually-harrassed former employees, couldn't this cash've been rustled up from the seemingly unending Dolan coffers? Wouldn't it have been good karma/PR/chemistry to lose the fat loser, and give a likely kid a chance?
If it were just a matter of money, that kind of feigned 'accountability' is a sham. We've all witnessed how little Isiah has been held accountable for his past string of blown trades, bad contracts, and cap-crippling roster management. Not to mention his apparent complete disregard for human decency. He surely isn't being held accountable for wasting a possibly-pretty-decent second-rounder and 'cash considerations' just to bring in two guys who always seemed on the outside of the numbers game looking in, and didn't even make the roster. And, still, Thomas isn't being held accountable for being a complete and utter idiot.
In the second round of this year's draft, Thomas made another deal with Portland; acquiring 53rd-overall selection Demetris Nichols from the Blazers for a 2008 second-rounder. Aside from the fact that Nichols —a jump-shooting, skinny small-forward— seemed to duplicate the skill-set of the Knicks' first-rounder Wilson Chandler —a jump-shooting, skinny small-forward— nearly exactly, the trade was curious for the fact that the Knicks had roughly 20 players, nine of them small-forwards, on the roster at the time.
It seems that, in hindsight, Thomas was hoping to convince Nichols to go spend a year or so playing in Europe, where he could develop at the cost of another organisation; returning when, the hope goes, New York's logjam of a roster had cleared up. Only Nichols had the temerity to show up, trying to earn the roster spot Isiah wasn't holding open for him.
Even though, at that point, the roster seemed overloaded, Thomas wouldn't stop tinkering. On September 30, on the eve of training camp, he acquired rookie point-guard Jared Jordan —a pass-first, pasty-skinned point guard— from the Clippers for cash considerations. This came after the Knicks had bought out the remainder of the contract of Dan Dickau —a pass-first, pasty-skinned point guard— who would then turn around and sign with, uh, the Clippers.
This sort-of-trade of whiteboy PGs clearly confused Zeke; as, on October 15, after a Knicks practice, he said: "I think Dickau is going to be a good player on our team when he's healthy"; even though Dickau never even made it training camp. Damn those crackers, my nigga. They all look the same.
Having given up cash for Jordan, and next year's second rounder for Nichols, you'd imagine that both guys would've ended up on the final 15-man roster. Sure, they'd spend all year in the NBDL, most likely, but it's always nice to develop young guys. And yet, both youngsters were cut. Free to go elsewhere. Unwanted by the Knicks.
Remaining on the roster, however, is one Jerome James. Since being inked up by —who else?— one Isiah Thomas, the colossal free-agent bust has only been notable for one thing: averaging 12.8 fouls per 48 minutes. Last year, in his few fleeting appearances for the Knicks, the morbidly-obese, 7'3 behemoth committed 73 fouls whilst scoring just 76 points; hitting 41.8% from the floor despite his close proximity to the basket. Though he may've had a few mediocre 5-and-4 type years in Seattle, James is clearly done. Forever injured, rarely motivated, raking in an obscene amount of money, and soon to turn 32 years old, James should've been a camp casualty.
Maybe James wouldn't have left for anything less than the $18mil still left on his three remaining years, but, given the Knicks are already shelling out obscene amounts of money to pay for overpaid players past and present and/or sexually-harrassed former employees, couldn't this cash've been rustled up from the seemingly unending Dolan coffers? Wouldn't it have been good karma/PR/chemistry to lose the fat loser, and give a likely kid a chance?
If it were just a matter of money, that kind of feigned 'accountability' is a sham. We've all witnessed how little Isiah has been held accountable for his past string of blown trades, bad contracts, and cap-crippling roster management. Not to mention his apparent complete disregard for human decency. He surely isn't being held accountable for wasting a possibly-pretty-decent second-rounder and 'cash considerations' just to bring in two guys who always seemed on the outside of the numbers game looking in, and didn't even make the roster. And, still, Thomas isn't being held accountable for being a complete and utter idiot.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Extra! Extra! Kevin McHale Is Bad GM!
Hold the phones. We've got a breaking story here. Shocking, shocking news. Kevin McHale sucks at his job. The Minnesota GM has just phoned in his latest trade, and, yes, it involves him acquiring an ex-Celtic. Antoine Walker is on his way to Minneapolis, for who knows what reason.
Entering this campaign, it seemed the Timberwolves were finally in rebuilding mode; and, added to the swag of young farm-system prospects they copped from Boston for handing over their previously-untouchable Big Ticket, the Minnesota roster was blessed with something good: Theo Ratliff's $11.6mil expiring contract, and Ricky Davis's $6.8mil expiring contract. With that 18-odd million to go play with, the Timberwolves could bring in other quality players by a team looking to dump salary, could help facilitate mega-trades between other teams as a third-party, or could pawn off immediate cap-relief unto ready-to-deal franchises boasting a surplus of draft picks.
McHale accomplished a little of this when he swapped Ricky Davis with the Del Boca Vista Heat's Michael Doleac, himself the owner of $3.1mil expiring deal. For, Rilezzz —the oily, oily snake who has barely been criticised for his fawning, number-retiring treatment of Michael Jordan— threw in some future/financial considerations (draft picks, straight cash homie) to get that deal done. But, oh, wait, there was another part of the deal, Blackheart. The Heaters and the ex-Celtics swapped, uh, a pair of ex-Celtics; or, more aptly, a pair of putrescent pass-never big-guys whose rebounding totals rank somewhere south of suck-ass. Mark Blount for Antoine Walker. A fairly innocuous, highly comic exchange of guys who both honk more than a flock of migrating geese, this bit of the wheeling and/or dealing was also all about the Benoit Benjamins.
Blount has three years, $22mil left on his deal. 'Toine has four years, $39mil on his. So, wait, why did Kevin McHale agree to this? The Timberwolves had all the leverage. They're trying to suck this year, Miami's trying not to. They had the player that Rilezzz had targeted —sudden fantasy stud-in-waiting, Ricky Ricky! Davis— and didn't have to make the trade: Davis's contract was going to come off their cap at the end of the year, just like Doleac's. The Heat were the team in panic mode after an unspeakably awful exhibition slate had wrapt up at a glorious 0-7. Dwyane Wade wasn't walking through that door (yet), PJ Brown wasn't walking through that door (yet), and Tim Hardaway was too busy planning his Brokeback pilgrimage to Kananaskis Country, Alberta to come walking through that door, fans. The Heat had to do something, or else there was the distinct possibility that they could open the regular season with the decaying corpse of Penny Hardaway in the rotation.
Not only was Riley desperate to deal, but he was desperate to rid himself of Walker. Like, really. Check out this conditioning-related tanty Rilezzz recently threw for the benefit of the media, and the belittlement of his former All-Star: "It's beyond irritating. I'm beyond being irritated. I was irritated the first year when I signed him. I was really irritated last year. I'm beyond irritated. I don't have time to be irritated." Ladies and gentleman, Mr. Antoine 'Beyond Irritating!' Walker!
So, given the bad-hand Poo-Rile had handed himself —aching need to improve his roster's talent, yearning to be freed from Employee Number 8%-too-much-body-fat, the sudden realisation that Stan The Porn-Moustached Man has pulled the knives from his back and bounced back ready to kick his in-state ass— it's amazing that the Weasel was able to weasel so much out of someone who should've had no business helping him out. Not only was McHale dealing with a Laker-for-life, but he was dealing with someone down-on-his-luck, a desperate case in desperate straits.
So, given all that, why, in this Blount/Walker bit of the trade, does Kevvy give up a bad contract to take back a really, really, really bad contract? Why does he, essentially, do Rilezzz the favour? Why, oh why, oh why? In the (almost) words of Woody Guthrie: Because, because, because, because (he's Kevin McHale), goodbye, goodbye, goodbye.
Entering this campaign, it seemed the Timberwolves were finally in rebuilding mode; and, added to the swag of young farm-system prospects they copped from Boston for handing over their previously-untouchable Big Ticket, the Minnesota roster was blessed with something good: Theo Ratliff's $11.6mil expiring contract, and Ricky Davis's $6.8mil expiring contract. With that 18-odd million to go play with, the Timberwolves could bring in other quality players by a team looking to dump salary, could help facilitate mega-trades between other teams as a third-party, or could pawn off immediate cap-relief unto ready-to-deal franchises boasting a surplus of draft picks.
McHale accomplished a little of this when he swapped Ricky Davis with the Del Boca Vista Heat's Michael Doleac, himself the owner of $3.1mil expiring deal. For, Rilezzz —the oily, oily snake who has barely been criticised for his fawning, number-retiring treatment of Michael Jordan— threw in some future/financial considerations (draft picks, straight cash homie) to get that deal done. But, oh, wait, there was another part of the deal, Blackheart. The Heaters and the ex-Celtics swapped, uh, a pair of ex-Celtics; or, more aptly, a pair of putrescent pass-never big-guys whose rebounding totals rank somewhere south of suck-ass. Mark Blount for Antoine Walker. A fairly innocuous, highly comic exchange of guys who both honk more than a flock of migrating geese, this bit of the wheeling and/or dealing was also all about the Benoit Benjamins.
Blount has three years, $22mil left on his deal. 'Toine has four years, $39mil on his. So, wait, why did Kevin McHale agree to this? The Timberwolves had all the leverage. They're trying to suck this year, Miami's trying not to. They had the player that Rilezzz had targeted —sudden fantasy stud-in-waiting, Ricky Ricky! Davis— and didn't have to make the trade: Davis's contract was going to come off their cap at the end of the year, just like Doleac's. The Heat were the team in panic mode after an unspeakably awful exhibition slate had wrapt up at a glorious 0-7. Dwyane Wade wasn't walking through that door (yet), PJ Brown wasn't walking through that door (yet), and Tim Hardaway was too busy planning his Brokeback pilgrimage to Kananaskis Country, Alberta to come walking through that door, fans. The Heat had to do something, or else there was the distinct possibility that they could open the regular season with the decaying corpse of Penny Hardaway in the rotation.
Not only was Riley desperate to deal, but he was desperate to rid himself of Walker. Like, really. Check out this conditioning-related tanty Rilezzz recently threw for the benefit of the media, and the belittlement of his former All-Star: "It's beyond irritating. I'm beyond being irritated. I was irritated the first year when I signed him. I was really irritated last year. I'm beyond irritated. I don't have time to be irritated." Ladies and gentleman, Mr. Antoine 'Beyond Irritating!' Walker!
So, given the bad-hand Poo-Rile had handed himself —aching need to improve his roster's talent, yearning to be freed from Employee Number 8%-too-much-body-fat, the sudden realisation that Stan The Porn-Moustached Man has pulled the knives from his back and bounced back ready to kick his in-state ass— it's amazing that the Weasel was able to weasel so much out of someone who should've had no business helping him out. Not only was McHale dealing with a Laker-for-life, but he was dealing with someone down-on-his-luck, a desperate case in desperate straits.
So, given all that, why, in this Blount/Walker bit of the trade, does Kevvy give up a bad contract to take back a really, really, really bad contract? Why does he, essentially, do Rilezzz the favour? Why, oh why, oh why? In the (almost) words of Woody Guthrie: Because, because, because, because (he's Kevin McHale), goodbye, goodbye, goodbye.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Feelin' the Draft: Ten Simple Rules For Not Drafting Vince Carter.
If you're a Yahoo! baller, like me, I'm sure you saw this column. Whilst it's an incredibly thorough piece of statistically-driven draft-preparation, I couldn't help but notice the following things:
Buser recommends you draft Marcus Camby.
Buser recommends you draft Ron Artest.
Buser recommends you draft Ricky Davis.
Buser recommends you draft Brad Miller.
Buser recommends you draft Cuttino Mobley.
Buser, apparently, also recommends war with Iran. How is this not the recipe for disaster? Whilst Camby is forever tantalising due to his robust totals, he's an injury waiting to happen; something you shouldn't wish for your second-round selection. Following the death of Eddie Griffin, Ron-Ron is duking it out with Zach Randolph for odds-on favourite in this year's NBA death-pool. Ricky-Ricky is not merely insane, but could be fantasy poison this season if the T-Pups bench him in favour of the kiddie corps. Brad Miller could conceivably retire halfway through the year if hurt again, and has regressed to the point where his only discernible skill is shoving little guys to the ground. Mobley may be no such injury/insanity risk, but he's reached the age (32) where two-guards start to die; last year finding Stevie Franchise's hetero lifemate posting the lowest PPG/RPG/APG averages he's hung since his rookie year (13.8, 3.4, 2.5), all whilst shooting 44% from the floor and hitting only 101 threes. If you're wanting a rapidly-aging SG who can't even crack the top-50 in 3PTM and will score probably 12 a game this year, get busy and pick the Cat at #103, and get ready to piss your season down the sink.
Whilst the statistically-driven approach seems a sound one, the advice handed down in such contravened so much draft-day wisdom. It just so happens, gentle reader, I've got some more basic fantasy draft rules that I've learnt, sometimes the hard way, over time. They'll serve you just as well in approaching your pick-making.
1. DRAFT A STUD POINT GUARD EARLY.
Steve Nash, the #1 assist guy in the game, averaged 11.6 a night. Stephon Marbury, the #20, averaged 5.5. That's 111% percent more assists from 1 to 20. In RPG, it's 37% (KG's 12.8 to Andris Biedrins' 9.3). In PPG, it's 51% (Kobe's 31.6 to the Boozehound's 20.9). The lesson: elite assist guys're rare. And, many of them go early; Nash, Kidd, Paul, Deron, B-Diddy will all be off the board in the first 30 picks of any league, and all of them will help you in so many ways. Late in the season, or even once the season begins, you'll be able to pick up guys who help in other categories easily; dirty-work rebounder types're a dime a dozen, and often will show up as the season progresses. But you can never, ever find APG on the waiver-wire, at any point of the year. So, I always, every season, grab at least one, more often two, PGs early. Lest I get stuck running Earl Watson as my PG-of-choice.
2. DRAFT A SHOTBLOCKER EARLY.
Once the fantasy season starts, there's going to be piles of BPG guys you can pick up as free-agents in your league, but they're there for a reason: they're bad. I think it's wise to make sure at least one your first 5 picks is not only a deluxe shotblocker, but a viable fantasy contributor in other functions. Pick yourself Shawn Marion and Dwight Howard, say, and you'll be largely set. Some people can handle having Darko or Joel Przybilla or some such shotblocking specialist on their squad just for the one category, but I'm not one of those people. So get on a rejector early. For: the 1-20 difference (Marcus Camby's 3.3 BPG to Sheed's 1.6) is an extra 106%.
3. PICK SECOND-YEAR PLAYERS.
As a general rule, nearly every NBA Player who's anybody has a great second year. The list of Most Improved Player winners is filled with sophomore studs, from Gilbert Arenas to last year's gong, Monta Ellis. Last year, I won myself a league title in a ridiculously-competitive head-to-head comp by filling a squad with them, running out a lineup featuring: Ellis, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack, and David Lee. Had I also drafted Andris Biedrins rather than Sean May (ahhh, the long-held regrets) in the last round, as I was considering, my second-year bonanza would've looked even better. It's like this every year: fleeting rookie promise is turned into prolific soph production. Whilst last year's lame-ass draft class should theoretically mean this year is an exception to the rule, that ain't the case, o homie my homie. As is the way, there's piles of guys who're gonna go much better the second time around, like: Rudy Gay, Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Walter Herrmann, Ronnie Brewer, Craig Smith, Daniel Gibson, and Rajon Rondo. Providing you don't reach on them, these cats have a great chance of exceeding expectations, which is what draft-day picking should be all about.
4. STAY AWAY FROM ROOKIES.
Every year there's maybe two or three rookies who're consistent enough to earn fantasy love. This year, Kevin Durant and Al Horford are the only youngsters seemingly worth an investment, with Juan Carlos Navarro, Al Thornton, Luis Scola, and 35-year-old Yi Jianlian the 'old' rookies, who hold far less risk due to their advanced-age. But anyone drafting Mike Conley Jr., Jeff Green, or Corey Brewer either better be incredibly patient or already ready to waive these guys, because the first couple months of the season will be loaded with up-and-down minutes and more struggles than promise. Personally, I'm thinking that even Durant and Scola are, at the moment, going earlier than perhaps is most wise; for neither of them seem to be guaranteed statistical goldmines. Whilst we all love the allure of the new, owning the freshman rarely makes for a contented, restful fantasy GM.
5. PIN YOUR HOPES ON ONLY ONE MASSIVE INJURY-RISK GUY.
In a draft in a 10-team league that I took part in on Saturday, one GM selected: Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O'Neal, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Peja Stojakovic. As well as the 'stash pick' of Elton Brand. Oh, and Kobe Bryant, too, whose commitment to the season seems a shade questionable, and for whom an Answer-like stint on the sidelines isn't entirely out of the question. Whilst that's a glittering array of talent to rake in, what're the odds that all of them are going to remain fit, focused, and productive for the entire season? Sure, it's a rotisserie league with a four-man bench, so it's more a calculated risk. But I prefer to always err on the side of caution; especially in a head-to-head league. If you're going to select Dwyane Wade early, don't follow it up by picking Marcus Camby or Gerald Wallace. Not only will your season falls to pieces, but you'll become the most annoying GM in your league; the one forever whining "imagine how good my team'd be if Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels, and Jermaine O'Neal weren't hurt!". Oh, wait, that's Larry Bird. But, you get the drift.
6. DON'T BE THE 'IF ONLY' DRAFTER.
This is the logical extension from the above. It's not ideal, after the draft, to have a list of 'If Onlys' so long that projecting a successful season for yourself is loaded with out clauses. For example: if only Marcus Camby stays healthy, and if only Ron Artest doesn't get arrested, and if only Ricky Davis doesn't quit on the season and/or ride the pine, and if only Brad Miller is still able to run by February, and if only Cuttino Mobley isn't yet completely washed up, then, hey, I could actually be pretty okay! Without doubt, that shit never works out. Don't play that game.
7. DON'T PICK GUYS YOU HATE WATCHING IN REAL LIFE.
Once known as the 'Mike Dunleavy Rule', after this preseason I think I can happily change this to the 'JJ Redick Rule'. Sitting down to watch a Cavs/Magic exhibition from China the other day, said rule was manifest in all its ugliness. Having made some ongoing joke out of the Redick-as-sleeper conundrum earlier, I suddenly realised that that joke isn't funny anymore; it's too close to home and it's too near the bone. For one simple reason: JJ has a fauxhawk! If you thought it was impossible Redick could look more of a dick, you've been proven wrong, my friend. Watching the Magic slug it out over an incredibly-mediocre Cavs lineup, I yearned not for JJ to rain them down from deep, but for the newly-bald Zydrunas Ilgauskas to accidently elbow him in the head. Repeatedly. As always, the rule is: Don't do it. Sure, you could load your team up with Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and the roster of the 2007 World Champion San Antonio Spurs, but to do so would be to commit to a season filled with joylessness.
8. PICK GUYS WHO EVERYONE ELSE HATES.
This is the asterisk to the 'JJ Redick Argument', and it's a special circumstance that is far more rare. Let's, for the sake of continuity, call this the 'Manu Corollary'. Sometimes a guy is so roundly detested by all and sundry that it effects their draft-day value to an extreme degree. Case In Point: Manu Ginobili. Everyone hates this guy: think the 'hustling' Spurs, think flopping like an extra in a Western who's just been shot, think berating the refs in hysterical pantomime, think that gleaming baldspot and its hypnotic powers. I hate him, you hate him. We all hate him. And he's worth hating. But, how far do you ride the hatred? In my past Saturday draft, I picked Manu in the ninth round, at #85. Right after someone selected... Cuttino Mobley! Rolling with the Manu Corollary, I overrode the Redick Rule; that far into things, passing up Manu was ridiculous. He finished #16 in the Yahoo! game last year, and should certainly land in the top 50 again this year. Should that happen, I could even learn to... love... Manu, in my own special way.
9. DON'T BE AFRAID OF LEANING TOWARDS YOUR FAVOURITES.
Whilst I'm not advising any crazy reaches, if you're weighing up between two guys, and you just happen to really love the real-life game of one of them, always go with your heart. If Andre Iguodala makes your heart flutter like a palpitating schoolgirl, and Cousin Vinny makes you want to vomit hunks of white-hot rage every time he goes down like he's shot, hobbles off the court, then miraculously returns five minutes later to launch more fadeway jumpers and do that impossibly-moronic motorcycle-revving hand gesture after every dunk, well, the choice between such close-ranked ballers should be nothing to do with statistics.
10. DON'T DRAFT BEN WALLACE.
Trust me: this (career) isn't going to end well.
Buser recommends you draft Marcus Camby.
Buser recommends you draft Ron Artest.
Buser recommends you draft Ricky Davis.
Buser recommends you draft Brad Miller.
Buser recommends you draft Cuttino Mobley.
Buser, apparently, also recommends war with Iran. How is this not the recipe for disaster? Whilst Camby is forever tantalising due to his robust totals, he's an injury waiting to happen; something you shouldn't wish for your second-round selection. Following the death of Eddie Griffin, Ron-Ron is duking it out with Zach Randolph for odds-on favourite in this year's NBA death-pool. Ricky-Ricky is not merely insane, but could be fantasy poison this season if the T-Pups bench him in favour of the kiddie corps. Brad Miller could conceivably retire halfway through the year if hurt again, and has regressed to the point where his only discernible skill is shoving little guys to the ground. Mobley may be no such injury/insanity risk, but he's reached the age (32) where two-guards start to die; last year finding Stevie Franchise's hetero lifemate posting the lowest PPG/RPG/APG averages he's hung since his rookie year (13.8, 3.4, 2.5), all whilst shooting 44% from the floor and hitting only 101 threes. If you're wanting a rapidly-aging SG who can't even crack the top-50 in 3PTM and will score probably 12 a game this year, get busy and pick the Cat at #103, and get ready to piss your season down the sink.
Whilst the statistically-driven approach seems a sound one, the advice handed down in such contravened so much draft-day wisdom. It just so happens, gentle reader, I've got some more basic fantasy draft rules that I've learnt, sometimes the hard way, over time. They'll serve you just as well in approaching your pick-making.
1. DRAFT A STUD POINT GUARD EARLY.
Steve Nash, the #1 assist guy in the game, averaged 11.6 a night. Stephon Marbury, the #20, averaged 5.5. That's 111% percent more assists from 1 to 20. In RPG, it's 37% (KG's 12.8 to Andris Biedrins' 9.3). In PPG, it's 51% (Kobe's 31.6 to the Boozehound's 20.9). The lesson: elite assist guys're rare. And, many of them go early; Nash, Kidd, Paul, Deron, B-Diddy will all be off the board in the first 30 picks of any league, and all of them will help you in so many ways. Late in the season, or even once the season begins, you'll be able to pick up guys who help in other categories easily; dirty-work rebounder types're a dime a dozen, and often will show up as the season progresses. But you can never, ever find APG on the waiver-wire, at any point of the year. So, I always, every season, grab at least one, more often two, PGs early. Lest I get stuck running Earl Watson as my PG-of-choice.
2. DRAFT A SHOTBLOCKER EARLY.
Once the fantasy season starts, there's going to be piles of BPG guys you can pick up as free-agents in your league, but they're there for a reason: they're bad. I think it's wise to make sure at least one your first 5 picks is not only a deluxe shotblocker, but a viable fantasy contributor in other functions. Pick yourself Shawn Marion and Dwight Howard, say, and you'll be largely set. Some people can handle having Darko or Joel Przybilla or some such shotblocking specialist on their squad just for the one category, but I'm not one of those people. So get on a rejector early. For: the 1-20 difference (Marcus Camby's 3.3 BPG to Sheed's 1.6) is an extra 106%.
3. PICK SECOND-YEAR PLAYERS.
As a general rule, nearly every NBA Player who's anybody has a great second year. The list of Most Improved Player winners is filled with sophomore studs, from Gilbert Arenas to last year's gong, Monta Ellis. Last year, I won myself a league title in a ridiculously-competitive head-to-head comp by filling a squad with them, running out a lineup featuring: Ellis, Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack, and David Lee. Had I also drafted Andris Biedrins rather than Sean May (ahhh, the long-held regrets) in the last round, as I was considering, my second-year bonanza would've looked even better. It's like this every year: fleeting rookie promise is turned into prolific soph production. Whilst last year's lame-ass draft class should theoretically mean this year is an exception to the rule, that ain't the case, o homie my homie. As is the way, there's piles of guys who're gonna go much better the second time around, like: Rudy Gay, Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Walter Herrmann, Ronnie Brewer, Craig Smith, Daniel Gibson, and Rajon Rondo. Providing you don't reach on them, these cats have a great chance of exceeding expectations, which is what draft-day picking should be all about.
4. STAY AWAY FROM ROOKIES.
Every year there's maybe two or three rookies who're consistent enough to earn fantasy love. This year, Kevin Durant and Al Horford are the only youngsters seemingly worth an investment, with Juan Carlos Navarro, Al Thornton, Luis Scola, and 35-year-old Yi Jianlian the 'old' rookies, who hold far less risk due to their advanced-age. But anyone drafting Mike Conley Jr., Jeff Green, or Corey Brewer either better be incredibly patient or already ready to waive these guys, because the first couple months of the season will be loaded with up-and-down minutes and more struggles than promise. Personally, I'm thinking that even Durant and Scola are, at the moment, going earlier than perhaps is most wise; for neither of them seem to be guaranteed statistical goldmines. Whilst we all love the allure of the new, owning the freshman rarely makes for a contented, restful fantasy GM.
5. PIN YOUR HOPES ON ONLY ONE MASSIVE INJURY-RISK GUY.
In a draft in a 10-team league that I took part in on Saturday, one GM selected: Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O'Neal, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Peja Stojakovic. As well as the 'stash pick' of Elton Brand. Oh, and Kobe Bryant, too, whose commitment to the season seems a shade questionable, and for whom an Answer-like stint on the sidelines isn't entirely out of the question. Whilst that's a glittering array of talent to rake in, what're the odds that all of them are going to remain fit, focused, and productive for the entire season? Sure, it's a rotisserie league with a four-man bench, so it's more a calculated risk. But I prefer to always err on the side of caution; especially in a head-to-head league. If you're going to select Dwyane Wade early, don't follow it up by picking Marcus Camby or Gerald Wallace. Not only will your season falls to pieces, but you'll become the most annoying GM in your league; the one forever whining "imagine how good my team'd be if Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels, and Jermaine O'Neal weren't hurt!". Oh, wait, that's Larry Bird. But, you get the drift.
6. DON'T BE THE 'IF ONLY' DRAFTER.
This is the logical extension from the above. It's not ideal, after the draft, to have a list of 'If Onlys' so long that projecting a successful season for yourself is loaded with out clauses. For example: if only Marcus Camby stays healthy, and if only Ron Artest doesn't get arrested, and if only Ricky Davis doesn't quit on the season and/or ride the pine, and if only Brad Miller is still able to run by February, and if only Cuttino Mobley isn't yet completely washed up, then, hey, I could actually be pretty okay! Without doubt, that shit never works out. Don't play that game.
7. DON'T PICK GUYS YOU HATE WATCHING IN REAL LIFE.
Once known as the 'Mike Dunleavy Rule', after this preseason I think I can happily change this to the 'JJ Redick Rule'. Sitting down to watch a Cavs/Magic exhibition from China the other day, said rule was manifest in all its ugliness. Having made some ongoing joke out of the Redick-as-sleeper conundrum earlier, I suddenly realised that that joke isn't funny anymore; it's too close to home and it's too near the bone. For one simple reason: JJ has a fauxhawk! If you thought it was impossible Redick could look more of a dick, you've been proven wrong, my friend. Watching the Magic slug it out over an incredibly-mediocre Cavs lineup, I yearned not for JJ to rain them down from deep, but for the newly-bald Zydrunas Ilgauskas to accidently elbow him in the head. Repeatedly. As always, the rule is: Don't do it. Sure, you could load your team up with Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and the roster of the 2007 World Champion San Antonio Spurs, but to do so would be to commit to a season filled with joylessness.
8. PICK GUYS WHO EVERYONE ELSE HATES.
This is the asterisk to the 'JJ Redick Argument', and it's a special circumstance that is far more rare. Let's, for the sake of continuity, call this the 'Manu Corollary'. Sometimes a guy is so roundly detested by all and sundry that it effects their draft-day value to an extreme degree. Case In Point: Manu Ginobili. Everyone hates this guy: think the 'hustling' Spurs, think flopping like an extra in a Western who's just been shot, think berating the refs in hysterical pantomime, think that gleaming baldspot and its hypnotic powers. I hate him, you hate him. We all hate him. And he's worth hating. But, how far do you ride the hatred? In my past Saturday draft, I picked Manu in the ninth round, at #85. Right after someone selected... Cuttino Mobley! Rolling with the Manu Corollary, I overrode the Redick Rule; that far into things, passing up Manu was ridiculous. He finished #16 in the Yahoo! game last year, and should certainly land in the top 50 again this year. Should that happen, I could even learn to... love... Manu, in my own special way.
9. DON'T BE AFRAID OF LEANING TOWARDS YOUR FAVOURITES.
Whilst I'm not advising any crazy reaches, if you're weighing up between two guys, and you just happen to really love the real-life game of one of them, always go with your heart. If Andre Iguodala makes your heart flutter like a palpitating schoolgirl, and Cousin Vinny makes you want to vomit hunks of white-hot rage every time he goes down like he's shot, hobbles off the court, then miraculously returns five minutes later to launch more fadeway jumpers and do that impossibly-moronic motorcycle-revving hand gesture after every dunk, well, the choice between such close-ranked ballers should be nothing to do with statistics.
10. DON'T DRAFT BEN WALLACE.
Trust me: this (career) isn't going to end well.
Pop! Goes The Karma In Charlotte, The Karma In Charlotte Goes Pop!
So, mere hours after I suggest that fuzz-faced Bobcats bricklayer Adam Morrison could one day reclaim his status of diabetic-hero and slowly shake off the stigma of bust --I mean, no one calls Tony Battie "El Busto" anymore, right?-- he goes and does his knee and will now sit for the season. Joining fellow Big Orange baller Sean May in the stable. Whilst I'd never be so egotistical to suggest some sort of curse, maybe I'll have to watch whom I'm seeding the love on from hereon out.
In other news: that Walter-Herrmann-as-deluxe-sleeper column I penned after the Sean May injury now seems doubly poignant. The Bobcats're growing thinner by the day, meaning the Argentine Fabio'll definitely get some sort of gig in even the tightest of eight-man rotations. But, more importantly, Sam Vincent finally —finally!— went with the small lineup we've all been waiting for on Sunday; with former 'starter' Ryan Hollins getting only 9 minutes of tick from deep on the bench. Felton/Richardson/Wallace/Herrmann/Okafor ran most of the game together, and, whilst Charlotte's meagre 88-point return (against Phoenix, no less!) hardly validated the lineup change, our hursuite Herrmann answered the bell. Starting at the four, Amo El Walter! hauled in 14 rebounds. If he can clean the glass at such a rate, to go with his sweet three-ball stroke, Herrmann will earn some serious fantasy value.
The Morrison/May injuries have thinned the ranks to the point where all of the Bobcats' five projected starters must be considered to have solid to extremely-high fantasy value. J-Rich, in particular, is starting to warm up as we get close to the season; his 23/4/4 with 5/11 threes versus Phoenix an elite, top-30 type line. Both he and Wallace could probably be worth bumping up a few spots on your draft-board now that there's very little depth behind them.
In other news: that Walter-Herrmann-as-deluxe-sleeper column I penned after the Sean May injury now seems doubly poignant. The Bobcats're growing thinner by the day, meaning the Argentine Fabio'll definitely get some sort of gig in even the tightest of eight-man rotations. But, more importantly, Sam Vincent finally —finally!— went with the small lineup we've all been waiting for on Sunday; with former 'starter' Ryan Hollins getting only 9 minutes of tick from deep on the bench. Felton/Richardson/Wallace/Herrmann/Okafor ran most of the game together, and, whilst Charlotte's meagre 88-point return (against Phoenix, no less!) hardly validated the lineup change, our hursuite Herrmann answered the bell. Starting at the four, Amo El Walter! hauled in 14 rebounds. If he can clean the glass at such a rate, to go with his sweet three-ball stroke, Herrmann will earn some serious fantasy value.
The Morrison/May injuries have thinned the ranks to the point where all of the Bobcats' five projected starters must be considered to have solid to extremely-high fantasy value. J-Rich, in particular, is starting to warm up as we get close to the season; his 23/4/4 with 5/11 threes versus Phoenix an elite, top-30 type line. Both he and Wallace could probably be worth bumping up a few spots on your draft-board now that there's very little depth behind them.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Adam Morrison: not the biggest bust of all time?
In the space of twelve months, Adam Morrison went from Bird-esque small-school-scoring-machine-with bad-hair-and-worse-moustache, to the bust of all busts, a bricklaying, slow-footed white-guy whose putrescent on-court presence cost the Bobcats not just a blown lottery pick but any chance at the 07 Playoffs. Morrison was no longer diabetic hero, but idiotic smoker; no longer sporting leviathan, but special-needs student; no longer a beacon of Bulldog pride, but the kind of weenie who'd prefer to sit in his room playing Halo. Loser.
In the hyper-saturated, hyper-critical, hyper-swift modern age, Morrison wasn't even afforded what had came to so many before him: rookie struggles. For, struggle he did: 11.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.7 TO, 37.6 FG%, and 33.7 3PT% in 30 minutes a night. Statistically proving defense wasn't his specialty, he had just 28 steals and 6 blocks on the entire season.
With Jason Richardson coming to town, and Matt Carroll and Gerald Wallace freshly inked to the 'Cats' first-ever even-halfway-large contracts, Morrison was, surely, bound for the end of the bench; if not just possible trade fodder (I'm sure Michael Jordan was calling Larry Bird, wondering if he'd like the Moz to team with Foster, Murphy, Dunleavy, Diener and the gang). Yet, over the course of five preseason games, it looks as if Sam Vincent could have a role carved out for Morrison: off-the-bench offence. In 26 MPG, Morrison's exhibition nights've added up to 13.2 PPG, at 48.0 FG%, with 4/11 threes (or: 36.3%).
The rest of his line is still for-shit: 2.0 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.4 TO; and the increasing output in productivity could easily be explained away as the product of one hot night (his 9/14, 20-point turn versus the Hawks), or even simply dismissed with the old standby 'it's just the preseason'.
Yet, the tiny sparks of life in Morrison's once-pronounced-dead career are enough to suggest that the lesson here should be: don't quite write the guy off after one wildly-inconsistent, massively-disappointing rookie campaign. Let's save that 'til the end of this season.
In the hyper-saturated, hyper-critical, hyper-swift modern age, Morrison wasn't even afforded what had came to so many before him: rookie struggles. For, struggle he did: 11.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.7 TO, 37.6 FG%, and 33.7 3PT% in 30 minutes a night. Statistically proving defense wasn't his specialty, he had just 28 steals and 6 blocks on the entire season.
With Jason Richardson coming to town, and Matt Carroll and Gerald Wallace freshly inked to the 'Cats' first-ever even-halfway-large contracts, Morrison was, surely, bound for the end of the bench; if not just possible trade fodder (I'm sure Michael Jordan was calling Larry Bird, wondering if he'd like the Moz to team with Foster, Murphy, Dunleavy, Diener and the gang). Yet, over the course of five preseason games, it looks as if Sam Vincent could have a role carved out for Morrison: off-the-bench offence. In 26 MPG, Morrison's exhibition nights've added up to 13.2 PPG, at 48.0 FG%, with 4/11 threes (or: 36.3%).
The rest of his line is still for-shit: 2.0 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.4 TO; and the increasing output in productivity could easily be explained away as the product of one hot night (his 9/14, 20-point turn versus the Hawks), or even simply dismissed with the old standby 'it's just the preseason'.
Yet, the tiny sparks of life in Morrison's once-pronounced-dead career are enough to suggest that the lesson here should be: don't quite write the guy off after one wildly-inconsistent, massively-disappointing rookie campaign. Let's save that 'til the end of this season.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Fantasy Rankification!: 1-50.
Moreso than any season in recent memory, the top of the draft is loaded with questions. Are Kobe and LeBron gonna pout? Are Amare and Arenas hurting? Will Yao or Bosh break down again? And is Dwyane Wade ever going to be able to put together an entire campaign? Or is all that quite-literal throwing of himself into defenders wearing on the young superbad superstud? And are you there, God? It’s me, Tony.
1. KEVIN GARNETT, F, Celtics.
KG has shades of Barkley-in-93 written all over him. A rebounding title, an MVP, and an Eastern Conference Finals berth all seem in the cards. A season of 19 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, a steal, a block, and robust percentages seems like just the beginning. He may not be as awe-inspiring as he was in 2004, but he’ll still be the #1 guy. Hail to thee, Kamp KG, in your hallowed emerald green.
2. SHAWN MARION, F, Suns.
I know he ends up being ranked #1 in the Yahoo! game every year, and finished 4th in the league in steals and 20th in blocks last season, and promises another year of do-everything ball at glittering all-over-the-book percentages. But I can never, in the preseason, commit to Marion as the #1 guy in fantasy ball. Maybe it’s the fact that 17.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG don’t look so impressive on their lonesome. Or, maybe, it’s just that painful shooting form.
3. KOBE BRYANT, SG, Lakers.
The current dramas surrounding Kobe seem too vague to truly take stock in; I can’t imagine someone as hyper-competitive as the Black Mamba pulling a Carter/McGrady and deliberately dogging it to get dealt. Even if he, y’know, once gave up in a playoff game to make a pathetic point. So, to slide #24 down your board because of trade rumours seems a little crazy; especially if he actually ends up getting dealt. Should Kobe land in Chicago, would he not do so with a monstrous chip on his shoulder, going out every night with a point to prove? And/or taking his ongoing Michael Jordan impersonation to Single White Female —or, moreso, Adulterous Black Male— extremes?
4. LEBRON JAMES, SF, Cavaliers.
Bron Bron hummer’d his way to the top of most humans’ preseason rankings last season, then proceeded to take a huge step back in his fourth year: -4.0 PPG, -112 FTM, -.041 FT%, and -28 threes headlining stats that took an across-the-board downturn. Adding to such pessimism, things’re looking even less rosy with the Cavs this year; LeBron seemingly stuck with a roster redefining mediocrity. As the load The Nailbiter carries grows and grows, he looks increasingly joyless, and often disinterested. Which isn’t exactly what you want from the-future-of-basketball, no?
5. STEVE NASH, PG, Suns.
Conversely, the game’s pre-eminent point-man is an eternal joy to watch; a study in continuous motion, in shot-generating, in risk-taking, in the marriage of unorthodoxy to fundamentals. Last season, he posted career-highs in FG%, 3PTM, 3PT%, and, most of all, assists. His 11.6 per contest are the most skewing statistic in all of fantasy basketball; the difference between that total and the tenth-best in the entire league —Raymond Felton’s 7.0— is incredible.
6. GILBERT ARENAS, PG, Wizards.
When Gilbert Arenas got hurt late last year, 1 minute into game 74 out of 74, he was leading the league in both FTM and 3PTM, was second in PTS, and third in STL. By average, he was third in the league in points, free-throws, and three-pointers, fifth in steals, and 15th in assists. Oh, and, just for kicks, he hung up six 40-point nights, two 50s, and a single sweet 60-point demolition (60/8/8) of the Lakers, as well as providing a seemingly endless arsenal of silly quotes and oddball anecdotes. Were he not coming off major knee surgery, you could make a case for Arenas at #3; especially given how fun it is to scream ‘Hibachi!’ at Wizards boxscores as they tick over.
7. DIRK NOWITZKI, PF, Mavericks.
Even Dirk’s hair seems boring by now. Yeah, yeah, I know: 50/40/90 shooting, 25 and 9, assists on the up. Just wake me when it’s over.
8. PAU GASOL, FC, Grizzlies.
If you think #8 seems too high for Gasol, let me learn you something. Last lap around the block, the furry-faced Iberian Macho, once recovered from a fractured footsie, got busy, consistently and thoroughly. Over his last 43 outings, Pau powered his way to an eyeball-poppin’ line of: 21.4 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.3 BPG, and 52.7 FG%. With Marc Iavaroni promising an uptempo time for the Grizzz, and Gasol’s homie Juan Carlos Navarro along for the ride, things should look that rosy for Pau all season long.
9. YAO MING, C, Rockets.
Yeah, he’s probably gonna average 27 and 10, but how much longer can we possibly keep someone so injury-prone in the top 10? One more 50-game campaign and Yao is officially tired and broken, his tongue twisted with words half-spoken; the next Bill Walton hobbling his way through a ruined career.
10. AMARE STOUDEMIRE, C, Suns.
So, uh, the knee surgery was just minor, right?
11. JASON KIDD, PG, Nets.
Last year, Kidd slipped into the third round in most drafts, fantasy GMs abandoning a guy who looked like he was on the downside of his career, set to groom his supposed replacement, Marcus Williams. Yet, proving that old dogs can learn new tricks, Kidd, in his 13th season, went out and groped up a career-high rebounding mark; his 8.2 a night obliterating his next best season (7.4). He also bumped his assists back up, from 8.4 to 9.2; making for a unique, unexpected renaissance that culminated in 12 regular-season triple-doubles, and a triple-double average in the postseason. His FG% remains forever ghastly, but it’s one of very few holes in an otherwise robust game.
12. RASHARD LEWIS, F, Magic.
If NBA teams paid players by their fantasy productivity, perhaps Lewis’s $118mil deal wouldn’t look so ludicrous. Whilst he’s a borderline All-Star in reality, in fantasy Lewis is a quiet assassin deluxe, someone whose broad range of skills —22.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 2.5 3PG, 84.1 FT%— leaves nary a column unfilled. This year, playing it as Ron Jeremy’s swing forward in a newly-uptempo Orlando offence, Rashard should be able to duplicate those numbers and then some; his unique combination of monstrous three totals and decent steals/blocks pushing him into the fantasy elite. Of course, he’s missed much of the preseason, which makes him yet another injury-risk at the top of this year’s picks…
13. DWIGHT HOWARD, C, Magic.
Amidst all the top-of-the-draft injury concerns, Dweeeezy stands out as a beacon of god-fearing cleanliness. In his three trips around the Association, Howard hasn’t missed a single tip; and, last season, he played under 30 minutes just ten times; under 24 twice. Howard is a rock you can build upon. With Battie dead and Darko gone, the kid could play 40 minutes a night, every night, for all 82. Really. Though some ‘experts’ have his pre-draft value rank somewhere south of the 40s, I ain’t buying that swill. I know, last year, his abhorrent TOs (3.9, 3rd in the league) and bricklaying FT% (58.6%, on 8 attempts a night) were fantasy killers, but, given his age (still only 21) and coach last season (Brian Hill), I don’t think those are permanent concerns. After the Magic played at a crawl —the second-slowest pace in the Eastern Conference— under the overmatched Hill, the arrival of Stanley Van Gundy should speed things up. Where more possessions usually lead to more TOs, with Howard it should help him cut down on such. There’ll be less slow dumps to the post, thus less need to struggle passing it out of double-teams, etc. And the arrival of Lewis means that it’ll be Howard and four shooters on the floor each night, which should open up the interior greatly. As for his FT%, the young buck ripped it for 66.7% for Team USA this summer, and through four preseason games, he’s hit 20/25. That’s 80%, my friends. Whilst it seems unlikely he’ll do that all year, keep in mind Tim Duncan once followed up a 61.8% season from the stripe with a whole campaign at 79.9. These things happen. And I, for one, am hardly gonna punce out on Howard —who, otherwise, should do 20 and 13 with a steal and two blocks— when it looks like the stars’re truly aligning.
14. TIM DUNCAN, FC, Spurs.
Timmy D has now played 80 games in back-to-back seasons, meaning the injury alarm-bells no longer are ringing. Last year, he mixed things up a bit; posting a career low 10.6 RPG whilst kicking his FG% from 48.4 to 54.6, and hauling his PPG averaged back up to 20.0 a night after his first ever year —18.6— below 20. Whilst he’ll obviously never again play the kind of minutes that makes for 23/12 seasons, drafting Duncan is to draft the rock-solid big-man building block. As long as you allow for the slow start to the year, no one should be unhappy to own Timmy.
15. DWYANE WADE, G, Heat.
So, uh, he is going to, y’know, play in November, isn’t he? And he is going to, y’know, stay on court for over 65 contests this season, right? If he was going to be healthy, he’d be probably a top-5 guy, but is sliding him to #15 low enough?
16. CHRIS BOSH, FC, Raptors.
Depending on how much the phrase ‘plantar fasciitis’ strikes the fear of Allah into your sound, sound heart, Bosh at 14’ll read as either larceny or idiocy. When the skinny southpaw’s on song, the world is his oyster cult: 23 and 11 on 16 shots a night; with A/TO numbers bordering on even, and a block-and-a-half per. Last year, he opened up with 14 double-doubles in the first 18 games, averaged 25.7 PPG in an 18-game stretch leading up to the All-Star Game, and generally earnt his place as an elite NBA player, both on the court and in the boxscore. But, uh, how ’bout them foot problems?
17. JOSH SMITH, GF, Hawks.
It’s rare that someone ranked this high is still blessed with the notion of ‘potential’, yet Josh Smith is still but scratching the surface of his. At just 21, the soaring Hawk seems to be forever adding to his game. Last year, he hit career-highs across the statsheet; grabbing the most rebounds in the league by a SF, spanking the second-most BPG in the tilt, and even coughing up a half-decent 3.3 APG. Smith’s high TOs and inconsistent stroke keep a ceiling on things, but as long as he can post nights like March 13 (pasting Philly for 26/17/5/4/3) and March 2 (wizzing on Washington to the tune of 24/14/2/2/7), Smith’s potential will be forever tantalising.
18. ANDRE IGUODALA, GF, Sixers.
When one AI cleared out of the Illadelph Halflife, the other AI stepped up; Iggy clocking 18.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.7 APG, and a third-best-in-the-L 2.0 SPG. His 452 FTM (at 82.0%) ranked 12th in the league, he had eight double-digit assist games, and last year he fucked around and got three triple-doubles. Year One, AAI, and Iguodala impressed. With nary any help on its way, he’ll haveta carry a mighty load for the Sixers this season.
19. VINCE CARTER, GF, Nets.
Yeah, so his numbers are amazoid and all, but what a detestable dickweed.
20. RAY ALLEN, SG, Celtics.
Before getting hurt last season and leaving the Sonics to tank themselves into a Kevin Durant frenzy, 32-year-old Ray Allen was actually averaging a career-high 26.4 PPG, and was, of course, leading the league in threes made at 3.0 a night. Coming across to Boston, Allen’s scoring numbers will slip, even if he’s a dead lock to sit atop the Association in 3PTM, and rank in the FT% top ten. A career 4.0 APG guy, Allen’s passing skills will ease the adjustment to Boston; and it’s easy to imagine his catch-and-shoot capabilities playing perfectly off of KG, and leaving him with at least a 20-a-night scoring clip.
21. BARON DAVIS, PG, Warriors.
Ahhh, B-Diddy. Most other injury-prone guys I stay away from like the plague, but every year, it seems, I end up drafting LeBaron onto at least one of my fantasy squads. And what’s ain’t to love: in Nellie’s drunken-gambling offence last time out, Boom Dizzle went goose silly, to the tune of 20, 4, 8, and 2 rips per. His threes fell, but, thanks to such, his FG% jumped, from 38.9 to 43.9; and his FT% was a decently 74.5, meaning the idea of Baron as percentage-killer was way passé hombre. The only concern is, really: did the Warriors use up all the good karma last year? Or was this just the start of things, for Golden State and their golden point?
22. DERON WILLIAMS, PG, Jazz.
In Yahoo! leagues, Chauncey Billups’ average draft position is #23, whilst Deron Williams’ is #33, proving that far fewer people actually watched the Conference Finals than I thought. I’d say book him in for 18 and 10, and ride the best young quarterback in the comp.
23. CHRIS PAUL, PG, Hornets.
CP3’s APG (8.9) and SPG (1.8) totals are ultra-elite, but, personally, I’m not one to get too swept up in the young kid’s game. Especially because he seems to be a little bit brittle.
24. CARLOS BOOZER, FC, Jazz.
After a couple years of serious pine-riding, the Boozehound hauled his yellow wide-load ass off the IL and delivered —through rain, sleet, snow, and Sloan— a serious statsheet package: 21 and 12 with 3 assists and 1 steal, at a career-high 56% from the floor. And, most importantly, the Booze did this in 74 games. Even when he hurt his knee, mid-season, Carlos came back earlier than expected, effectively ending accusations that his tolerance-to-pain was somewhere south of Matt Geigeresque.
25. AL JEFFERSON, FC, Timberwolves.
Big Al’s post-All-Star numbers were hefty: 19.9 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG, at a 56 clip from the floor. Kids freaked out, Kevin McHale developed a schoolgirl crush, and, before you knew it, KG was a Celtic. With Jefferson set to be the foundation stone in Minnesota’s rebuilding effort, all expectations are that he’s gonna be 20/10 for the year; a legit fantasy big-man. And yet, keep in mind: those above numbers were posted on a team going out of its way to lose, in those ‘dead months’ at the season’s end where Acie Earl can hang up 40 points or Rex Walters can go for 27, 9, and 11. I mean, Chris Porter averaged 13 and 5 down the stretch of his rookie campaign, then was never heard of again. So why is Jefferson different? Because he’ll be the man in Minnesota. Whilst the Timberwolves have an overcrowded roster, no coach in his right mind is going to play a 47-year-old Juwan Howard or Mark ‘cashing a cheque’ Blount ahead of Jefferson. At just 22 years of age, Jefferson is already a gifted post scorer, an elite offensive rebounder (his 3.4 per were 5th in the league), and someone whose turnovers were surprisingly low (2.0) given the load he carried last go. Put it all together, and Jefferson has the potential to be a top-ten guy this time round. Which means #25 isn’t really going overboard.
26. CARON BUTLER, SF, Wizards.
Whilst the kids call him Tough Juice, I prefer to think of him as C-Butt.
27. MARCUS CAMBY, C, Nuggets.
After playing 70 games for the second time in four years, Marcus’s making a case that he’s not fatally injury-prone, just eternally banged up. Whilst his astonishing defensive/rebounding numbers and deft passing skillzzz would have him lodged in the top 10 if he were forever fit, the fact that you’re essentially punting 15% of the season away drafting Camby has him sliding down the rankings. Even at #27, he’s still a draft-day risk.
28. GERALD WALLACE, F, Bobcats.
The just-as-injured Crash would also crash the top 10 party if healthy; he having developed a Marionesque game that, in many facets, out-Marions Marion. Last year, Wallace was one of 12 NBA players to post multiple 40-point games, averaged 23 and 9 over the season’s final four months, ranked 4th in the league in steals, grabbed the second-most boards by a small-forward (7.2), blocked a shot a night, hit 120 threes, and shot over 50% from the floor. When Wallace is on song, it’s a sweet, sweet tune. Too bad he’s so often achin’.
29. PAUL PIERCE, GF, Celtics.
Whilst Ray Allen will slot alongside KG beautifully, the same can’t be guaranteed of Paul Pierce. Not that he’s destined to honk it up now he’ll be pressed into sharing, but if any of the trio’s stats’re set to slip in this glorious new era of non-kidnapping-caper-comedy Celtic Pride, they be Pierce’s; the career Bostonian favouring a pound-the-ball style that comes from being forever sent into isolation sets. Finding a way to maximise The Truth’s talents whilst keeping the ball moving around the new KG/Ray-Ray/Eddie House lineup would need the work of a sharp coaching mind. Unfortunately, the Cs have Doc Rivers.
30. MICHAEL REDD, GF, Bucks.
When Michael Redd went career-best crazy against the Jazzercisers last season, he should’ve been showered with naught but love. But, as so many pointed out: on a 57-point night, Redd had 2 rebounds and 0 assists. So it goes with the lefty slinger, whose hefty stacks of scoring stats —career best averages in PTS, 3PT, FTM last season— are tempered by his lack of much of anything else at all.
31. JOE JOHNSON, G, Hawks.
I’m still unsure if Joe Johnson’s 25 PPG explosion last season was the latest evolutionary step in an ever-improving career, or if it was just a one-of-those-years aberration. With Josh Smith gunning for alpha-dog status, Al Horford now on the block, and Marvin Williams having apparently learnt how to dribble, I don’t see Johnson being the same scoring-machine this time out. That said, 22/4/4, a steal, and 150 threes ain’t quite the burnt stick in your fantasy roster’s eye, either.
32. MIKE MILLER, GF, Grizzlies.
Doubling as the cutest girl in fantasy hoops, Mikey Miller hung up some mighty stats last year for the Grizzz: 18.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, and a 2nd-best-in-the-L 2.9 3PTM. With the Barone-to-Iavaroni switcheroo promising to keep the tempo crankin’ this coming campaign, there’s no reason why Miller couldn’t post that line all over again; making him a deceptively-good fantasy pickup.
33. CARMELO ANTHONY, SF, Nuggets.
Everyone's favourite hightailin' backpedaller (Melo, what're you running from?, etc) became a genuine fantasy contributor last season; posting his first ever positive assist-to-turnover ratio thanks to a career-high 3.8 APG. Still, compared to his robust PPG numbers, Melo's fantasy rank will always be less than you expect.
34. TRACY MCGRADY, GF, Rockets.
Last year, McSooky finally moved into the canny-veteran-with-a-bad-back stage of his NBA tenure. Posting career-low BPG and his lowest-ever rebounding rate, McGrady was obviously no longer the athletic, defensive force he’s been. Instead, he became distributor; with both his assists (6.5) and turnovers (3.0) reaching new heights. This year, on a Rocket roster with about twelve PGs, McGrady may be less of a ballhandler; but the hope is that Rick Adelman’s more free-rein approach to Houston offence (after the Jeff Van Gundy era) could help T-Mac keep his 25-type scoring numbers up. Whilst that’s all well and good, keep in mind Tracy’s only played in an average of 66 contests over the last four seasons.
35. ALLEN IVERSON, G, Nuggets.
After Jim O’Brien moved him back to PG, Iverson posted his two best career seasons in 04/05 and 05/06, improving to the point where he was cracking the fantasy elite. With his assists on the up, his deep-stroke tightening, and the new contact interpretations letting him camp out at the line, the little man’s statistical game overcame his atrocious shot-selection and propensity for turnovers (both products of trying too do to much, not trusting your teammates, making oneself an obvious target for defences, etc). Yet, after posting 33.0 PPG, 9.4 FTM, and 81.4 FT% in his last full Philly season, the Answer’s 50-game stint in Powder Blue has even called his scoring-machine status into question: 24.8 PPG, 6.6 FTM, and 75.9 FT%. And his passing stats, which should theoretically benefit from being surrounded by more talent in a faster-paced system? APG from 7.4 to 7.2, TO from 3.4 to 4.0. So, for anyone expecting 30+ PPG and sweet PG numbers to boot: caveat emptor.
36. TYSON CHANDLER, C, Hornets.
Last season, finally away from the glowering gaze of Scott Skiles, Chandler flourished for the Hornets, putting up way better numbers than Ben Wallace, the old dude the Bulls brought in to ‘upgrade’ his position. Ty lead the league in offensive rebounds —4.4 a night!— whilst hauling in 12.4 RPG, spanking 1.8 BPG, and rounding things off with a career-high 9.5 PPG at an ass-reamingly amazing 62.4 FG%. He even played 73 of the year’s first 75 runs before being shut down. But what has Chandler up this high on the draft board is how he fared once he found his feet. Once the calendar turned over to the ought-seven, the skinny kid done brung it fierce, his averages in the 44 straight contests he played from Jan 2 to Apr 3 rolling: 11.7 PPG, 13.2 RPG, and 1.9 BPG. They’re numbers that he could actually match this whole season.
37. COREY MAGGETTE, GF, Clippers.
Are you ready for Maggette? Beginning last season as the Clips’ forgotten (sixth) man, Corey/Allegory/Montessori exploded after the leaguewide Vegas orgy, his post All-Star Break numbers going: 20.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 7.7 FTM at 79.7%. With Elton Brand sidelined for most of this season’s slate, the Freebie Machine has the potential to lead the league in FTM, and should post career-high rebounding numbers. Something in the neighbourhood of his 04/05 stats —22 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 APG, 1 SPG, and 8 FTM each night— should be just the beginning.
38. ANTAWN JAMISON, F, Wizards.
I remember once watching Jamison play for North Carolina, against NC State, and the young Antawn had some super-weird stat like he scored 30 points even though he only had possession of the ball for 46 seconds of gametime. Of course, I may’ve actually just imagined this, driven insane by the incessant idiocy of “analyst” (or, perhaps, “analrapist”) Dick Vitale. Yet, anyone who watched Jamison play in college saw a clinic in moving without the ball, setting up, catching, finishing. Whilst his game’s evolved much in the decade since, Jamison still does very little needless handling. Meaning, he rarely turns it over. Last year, he coughed it up only 1.5 times a night; and, in the games in which Hibachi! and C-Butt were both in the lineup alongside him, that dropped to 1.3. To go with such, Jamison posted 20 and 8, 2 assists, 2 threes, and a steal per contest. His percentages aren’t particularly power-forwardly, but otherwise Jamison’s game definitely stacks up.
39. KEVIN MARTIN, SG, Kings.
Last year, Kevin Martin needed just 13 FGA a night to hit his 20.2 PPG average. Just as a rough comparison, Richard Hamilton needed 15.6 FGA for his 19.8 PPG, and Larry Hughes’s 13.6 FGA, turned into just 15 points. To get suchbig-man efficiency from a scoring guard is unheard of. On a Kings team going very much nowhere, Martin should see his points rise a little this year; and, if Reggie Theus can truly utilise his lead-guard’s unique talents, Martin’s percentages could clock in at 50/40/85, with sweet steals and threes to boot.
40. CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, PG, Pistons.
When people call Billups’ fantasy game an ‘acquired taste’, it’s often meant as faint praise. Okay, his 8th-best FT% makes the 18th-most FTM, and, thus, Billups can influence that category on his own. His turnovers are still low and, last year, he even set a career high mark for steals. But Mr. Playoff Choke’s points, threes and assists all dropped significantly last year; his 3PT%, most notably, tumbling from 43.3% to 34.5%. Given he’s never been much inside the arc —his first four years in Detroit, he hit at 42.2% inside, 41.1% outside— such slippage from distance is alarming. As is the fact that he’s just turned 31.
41. LAMAR ODOM, F, Lakers.
So, wait, one injury-marred campaign and everyone’s already off the Odom wagon? The ultra-smooth lefty still averaged 16, 10, and 5 on the year, even if his dreadful (29.7%) struggles from range —the product of his sore shoulder/s— curbed a bit of that enthusiasm. Yet, that hardly should lead to the mass-abandonment of a guy who could add the magical boxscore-filling one-steal/one-block/one-three to those triple-double-threat numbers. To me, it’s pretty baffling that Odom is considered a sixth-round pick by many, even as they pencil piles of other injury-risk types in ahead of him.
42. JOSH HOWARD, SF, Mavericks.
After combining for just 81 threes in his first three seasons, Howard hit 92 of them last year; such range-finding bumping his fantasy output way upwards as he posted career-highs in PPG (18.9), RPG (6.8), and BPG (0.8). Notably, his FT% soared, too; the career 72.6% shooter jumping up to 82.7%. Whilst further sharp-improvements this coming campaign are unlikely, Howard has clearly established himself as the second option in Dallas, and his across-the-board numbers add up. If he can stay on the floor —he’s averaged just 68 games a season for his career— Howard will be an even better fantasy play.
43. LUOL DENG, SF, Bulls.
On a perpetually up-and-down Bulls team, the Dengler is as close as you’ll get to a rock. In his breakout 18.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 51.7 FG% season, LuLu posted only four single-figure scoring nights; and only one over the last three months of the season, in which he upped his ante to 20.1 PPG and 7.6 PPG, with his FG% sliding back to 50.6. This year, Deng has the potential to post 20-per on the year, with positive assist/turnover numbers, a steal and a scattering of blocks across his platter. Whilst you could be alarmed that his ‘backup’, Andres Nocioni, demands minutes, take note that Deng has improved noticeably in every season so far; and at just 22, likely isn’t done yet.
44. BRANDON ROY, G, Trailblazers.
Before the preseason dawned, I had the ROY ranked quite higher: he’s undoubtedly going to make a massive improvement in his second season, and his evolution into option #1 in Portland makes a 20/5/5 type season likely. Given he’ll contribute in every category save blocks —his 3PT% could hit 40 this year— Roy should be a fantasy stud in waiting. But, given he managed 57 games battling a variety of injuries last time, missed large stretches of his college career, and is already being ‘rested’ for the possibly the whole exhibition slate, Roy rather resembles an injury-risk in waiting.
45. EMEKA OKAFOR, FC, Bobcats.
Last season was a most unexpected breakout for Okafor, which peaked in career-highs for RPG (11.3), BPG (2.6), and, most importantly, FG%. After shooting a dreadful 41.5% in his truncated sophomore stint, Okafor bumped that shit all the way up to 53.2%, whilst slicing his turnovers from 2.0 to 1.7, and posting a solid 14.4 point per contest. So why the ranking this low? Two words: bad back.
46. JASON RICHARDSON, GF, Bobcats.
On draft night, the expectation was that J-Rich was gonna walk into Charlotte and get ridiculous. But, in his sparing preseason appearances, Richardson hasn’t looked like the guy who hung up 23 and 6 just two years ago. Coming off a hobbled 06/07 campaign, Richardson’s athleticism no longer seems so all-world; and joining a Bobcats squad forever bit by the injury bug hardly augurs confidence. He’s certainly gonna hang up threes in bunches, but it’s starting to seem more like Richo’ll end up at about 18 points per; essentially functioning as a deluxe version of his fellow Richardson, Quentin.
47. KIRK HINRICH, PG, Bulls.
Who would’ve though a guy who looks like such a weenie would end up such a baller. Last year, Cap’n Kirk’s poly-category career-high shooting numbers —44.8 FG%, 41.5 3PT%, 83.5 FT%— helped him hit a personal best 16.6 points per, showing capacity for growth in an otherwise rock-solid game.
48. LEANDRO BARBOSA, G, Suns.
In case you missed it: Lil’ Leandrinho averaged 18.1 PPG last season. Even though he started only 18 games. And played just 32 minutes a tip. The ridiculously-quick Brasilian also hit 190 threes, flirted with a place in the 50/40/80 percentile club, dished out 4.0 APG, and ripped 1.2 steals per. Unless the arrival of Grant Hill and the possible resurrection of Marcus Banks eat too much into his minutes, Barbosa should still be good to go for scoring outbursts at powerful percentages.
49. JASON TERRY, G, Mavericks.
So, is anyone else worried about Avery Johnson’s talk of the backcourt roles being up in the air, with JT and Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse and Trenton Hassell and Eddie Jones and Mo Ager all apparently duking it out? Since arriving in Dallas, Terry has sliced down on the TOs and upped the percentages, to the point where the high-sock’d guard is thought of as sound veteran, not eager chucker. Last year, his %s went 48/44/80; lessening the blow of his declining STL numbers. Before the preseason, I figured Socks was a lock for 17 and 5 and 150 threes, but now I’m not so convinced. He should still be very productive, but if he’s not the lead point-guard, who knows what that productivity will mean.
50. JERMAINE O’NEAL, FC, Pacers.
Perhaps naught surmises the Pacers’ falling fortunes more than the fate of its franchise player. Once thought of as peer to Duncan, Brand et al, O’Neal has slipped to league’s second-tier of big-men; an oft-injured veteran whose best years already seem a long time gone. Last season, O’Neal’s numbers waned to 19.4 PPG and 9.6 RPG, the first time he hasn’t posted 20 a night since 01/02. More disconcertingly, he again coughed it up 3 times a night, and, most woefully, shot just 43.6% from the floor, a lower clip than Kirk Hinrich, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, JR Smith, TJ Ford, Chris Paul, and countless other percentage-challenged guards. When coupled with his incredibly-high injury risk, Jermaine is lucky to still be ranked this high.
1. KEVIN GARNETT, F, Celtics.
KG has shades of Barkley-in-93 written all over him. A rebounding title, an MVP, and an Eastern Conference Finals berth all seem in the cards. A season of 19 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, a steal, a block, and robust percentages seems like just the beginning. He may not be as awe-inspiring as he was in 2004, but he’ll still be the #1 guy. Hail to thee, Kamp KG, in your hallowed emerald green.
2. SHAWN MARION, F, Suns.
I know he ends up being ranked #1 in the Yahoo! game every year, and finished 4th in the league in steals and 20th in blocks last season, and promises another year of do-everything ball at glittering all-over-the-book percentages. But I can never, in the preseason, commit to Marion as the #1 guy in fantasy ball. Maybe it’s the fact that 17.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG don’t look so impressive on their lonesome. Or, maybe, it’s just that painful shooting form.
3. KOBE BRYANT, SG, Lakers.
The current dramas surrounding Kobe seem too vague to truly take stock in; I can’t imagine someone as hyper-competitive as the Black Mamba pulling a Carter/McGrady and deliberately dogging it to get dealt. Even if he, y’know, once gave up in a playoff game to make a pathetic point. So, to slide #24 down your board because of trade rumours seems a little crazy; especially if he actually ends up getting dealt. Should Kobe land in Chicago, would he not do so with a monstrous chip on his shoulder, going out every night with a point to prove? And/or taking his ongoing Michael Jordan impersonation to Single White Female —or, moreso, Adulterous Black Male— extremes?
4. LEBRON JAMES, SF, Cavaliers.
Bron Bron hummer’d his way to the top of most humans’ preseason rankings last season, then proceeded to take a huge step back in his fourth year: -4.0 PPG, -112 FTM, -.041 FT%, and -28 threes headlining stats that took an across-the-board downturn. Adding to such pessimism, things’re looking even less rosy with the Cavs this year; LeBron seemingly stuck with a roster redefining mediocrity. As the load The Nailbiter carries grows and grows, he looks increasingly joyless, and often disinterested. Which isn’t exactly what you want from the-future-of-basketball, no?
5. STEVE NASH, PG, Suns.
Conversely, the game’s pre-eminent point-man is an eternal joy to watch; a study in continuous motion, in shot-generating, in risk-taking, in the marriage of unorthodoxy to fundamentals. Last season, he posted career-highs in FG%, 3PTM, 3PT%, and, most of all, assists. His 11.6 per contest are the most skewing statistic in all of fantasy basketball; the difference between that total and the tenth-best in the entire league —Raymond Felton’s 7.0— is incredible.
6. GILBERT ARENAS, PG, Wizards.
When Gilbert Arenas got hurt late last year, 1 minute into game 74 out of 74, he was leading the league in both FTM and 3PTM, was second in PTS, and third in STL. By average, he was third in the league in points, free-throws, and three-pointers, fifth in steals, and 15th in assists. Oh, and, just for kicks, he hung up six 40-point nights, two 50s, and a single sweet 60-point demolition (60/8/8) of the Lakers, as well as providing a seemingly endless arsenal of silly quotes and oddball anecdotes. Were he not coming off major knee surgery, you could make a case for Arenas at #3; especially given how fun it is to scream ‘Hibachi!’ at Wizards boxscores as they tick over.
7. DIRK NOWITZKI, PF, Mavericks.
Even Dirk’s hair seems boring by now. Yeah, yeah, I know: 50/40/90 shooting, 25 and 9, assists on the up. Just wake me when it’s over.
8. PAU GASOL, FC, Grizzlies.
If you think #8 seems too high for Gasol, let me learn you something. Last lap around the block, the furry-faced Iberian Macho, once recovered from a fractured footsie, got busy, consistently and thoroughly. Over his last 43 outings, Pau powered his way to an eyeball-poppin’ line of: 21.4 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.3 BPG, and 52.7 FG%. With Marc Iavaroni promising an uptempo time for the Grizzz, and Gasol’s homie Juan Carlos Navarro along for the ride, things should look that rosy for Pau all season long.
9. YAO MING, C, Rockets.
Yeah, he’s probably gonna average 27 and 10, but how much longer can we possibly keep someone so injury-prone in the top 10? One more 50-game campaign and Yao is officially tired and broken, his tongue twisted with words half-spoken; the next Bill Walton hobbling his way through a ruined career.
10. AMARE STOUDEMIRE, C, Suns.
So, uh, the knee surgery was just minor, right?
11. JASON KIDD, PG, Nets.
Last year, Kidd slipped into the third round in most drafts, fantasy GMs abandoning a guy who looked like he was on the downside of his career, set to groom his supposed replacement, Marcus Williams. Yet, proving that old dogs can learn new tricks, Kidd, in his 13th season, went out and groped up a career-high rebounding mark; his 8.2 a night obliterating his next best season (7.4). He also bumped his assists back up, from 8.4 to 9.2; making for a unique, unexpected renaissance that culminated in 12 regular-season triple-doubles, and a triple-double average in the postseason. His FG% remains forever ghastly, but it’s one of very few holes in an otherwise robust game.
12. RASHARD LEWIS, F, Magic.
If NBA teams paid players by their fantasy productivity, perhaps Lewis’s $118mil deal wouldn’t look so ludicrous. Whilst he’s a borderline All-Star in reality, in fantasy Lewis is a quiet assassin deluxe, someone whose broad range of skills —22.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 2.5 3PG, 84.1 FT%— leaves nary a column unfilled. This year, playing it as Ron Jeremy’s swing forward in a newly-uptempo Orlando offence, Rashard should be able to duplicate those numbers and then some; his unique combination of monstrous three totals and decent steals/blocks pushing him into the fantasy elite. Of course, he’s missed much of the preseason, which makes him yet another injury-risk at the top of this year’s picks…
13. DWIGHT HOWARD, C, Magic.
Amidst all the top-of-the-draft injury concerns, Dweeeezy stands out as a beacon of god-fearing cleanliness. In his three trips around the Association, Howard hasn’t missed a single tip; and, last season, he played under 30 minutes just ten times; under 24 twice. Howard is a rock you can build upon. With Battie dead and Darko gone, the kid could play 40 minutes a night, every night, for all 82. Really. Though some ‘experts’ have his pre-draft value rank somewhere south of the 40s, I ain’t buying that swill. I know, last year, his abhorrent TOs (3.9, 3rd in the league) and bricklaying FT% (58.6%, on 8 attempts a night) were fantasy killers, but, given his age (still only 21) and coach last season (Brian Hill), I don’t think those are permanent concerns. After the Magic played at a crawl —the second-slowest pace in the Eastern Conference— under the overmatched Hill, the arrival of Stanley Van Gundy should speed things up. Where more possessions usually lead to more TOs, with Howard it should help him cut down on such. There’ll be less slow dumps to the post, thus less need to struggle passing it out of double-teams, etc. And the arrival of Lewis means that it’ll be Howard and four shooters on the floor each night, which should open up the interior greatly. As for his FT%, the young buck ripped it for 66.7% for Team USA this summer, and through four preseason games, he’s hit 20/25. That’s 80%, my friends. Whilst it seems unlikely he’ll do that all year, keep in mind Tim Duncan once followed up a 61.8% season from the stripe with a whole campaign at 79.9. These things happen. And I, for one, am hardly gonna punce out on Howard —who, otherwise, should do 20 and 13 with a steal and two blocks— when it looks like the stars’re truly aligning.
14. TIM DUNCAN, FC, Spurs.
Timmy D has now played 80 games in back-to-back seasons, meaning the injury alarm-bells no longer are ringing. Last year, he mixed things up a bit; posting a career low 10.6 RPG whilst kicking his FG% from 48.4 to 54.6, and hauling his PPG averaged back up to 20.0 a night after his first ever year —18.6— below 20. Whilst he’ll obviously never again play the kind of minutes that makes for 23/12 seasons, drafting Duncan is to draft the rock-solid big-man building block. As long as you allow for the slow start to the year, no one should be unhappy to own Timmy.
15. DWYANE WADE, G, Heat.
So, uh, he is going to, y’know, play in November, isn’t he? And he is going to, y’know, stay on court for over 65 contests this season, right? If he was going to be healthy, he’d be probably a top-5 guy, but is sliding him to #15 low enough?
16. CHRIS BOSH, FC, Raptors.
Depending on how much the phrase ‘plantar fasciitis’ strikes the fear of Allah into your sound, sound heart, Bosh at 14’ll read as either larceny or idiocy. When the skinny southpaw’s on song, the world is his oyster cult: 23 and 11 on 16 shots a night; with A/TO numbers bordering on even, and a block-and-a-half per. Last year, he opened up with 14 double-doubles in the first 18 games, averaged 25.7 PPG in an 18-game stretch leading up to the All-Star Game, and generally earnt his place as an elite NBA player, both on the court and in the boxscore. But, uh, how ’bout them foot problems?
17. JOSH SMITH, GF, Hawks.
It’s rare that someone ranked this high is still blessed with the notion of ‘potential’, yet Josh Smith is still but scratching the surface of his. At just 21, the soaring Hawk seems to be forever adding to his game. Last year, he hit career-highs across the statsheet; grabbing the most rebounds in the league by a SF, spanking the second-most BPG in the tilt, and even coughing up a half-decent 3.3 APG. Smith’s high TOs and inconsistent stroke keep a ceiling on things, but as long as he can post nights like March 13 (pasting Philly for 26/17/5/4/3) and March 2 (wizzing on Washington to the tune of 24/14/2/2/7), Smith’s potential will be forever tantalising.
18. ANDRE IGUODALA, GF, Sixers.
When one AI cleared out of the Illadelph Halflife, the other AI stepped up; Iggy clocking 18.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.7 APG, and a third-best-in-the-L 2.0 SPG. His 452 FTM (at 82.0%) ranked 12th in the league, he had eight double-digit assist games, and last year he fucked around and got three triple-doubles. Year One, AAI, and Iguodala impressed. With nary any help on its way, he’ll haveta carry a mighty load for the Sixers this season.
19. VINCE CARTER, GF, Nets.
Yeah, so his numbers are amazoid and all, but what a detestable dickweed.
20. RAY ALLEN, SG, Celtics.
Before getting hurt last season and leaving the Sonics to tank themselves into a Kevin Durant frenzy, 32-year-old Ray Allen was actually averaging a career-high 26.4 PPG, and was, of course, leading the league in threes made at 3.0 a night. Coming across to Boston, Allen’s scoring numbers will slip, even if he’s a dead lock to sit atop the Association in 3PTM, and rank in the FT% top ten. A career 4.0 APG guy, Allen’s passing skills will ease the adjustment to Boston; and it’s easy to imagine his catch-and-shoot capabilities playing perfectly off of KG, and leaving him with at least a 20-a-night scoring clip.
21. BARON DAVIS, PG, Warriors.
Ahhh, B-Diddy. Most other injury-prone guys I stay away from like the plague, but every year, it seems, I end up drafting LeBaron onto at least one of my fantasy squads. And what’s ain’t to love: in Nellie’s drunken-gambling offence last time out, Boom Dizzle went goose silly, to the tune of 20, 4, 8, and 2 rips per. His threes fell, but, thanks to such, his FG% jumped, from 38.9 to 43.9; and his FT% was a decently 74.5, meaning the idea of Baron as percentage-killer was way passé hombre. The only concern is, really: did the Warriors use up all the good karma last year? Or was this just the start of things, for Golden State and their golden point?
22. DERON WILLIAMS, PG, Jazz.
In Yahoo! leagues, Chauncey Billups’ average draft position is #23, whilst Deron Williams’ is #33, proving that far fewer people actually watched the Conference Finals than I thought. I’d say book him in for 18 and 10, and ride the best young quarterback in the comp.
23. CHRIS PAUL, PG, Hornets.
CP3’s APG (8.9) and SPG (1.8) totals are ultra-elite, but, personally, I’m not one to get too swept up in the young kid’s game. Especially because he seems to be a little bit brittle.
24. CARLOS BOOZER, FC, Jazz.
After a couple years of serious pine-riding, the Boozehound hauled his yellow wide-load ass off the IL and delivered —through rain, sleet, snow, and Sloan— a serious statsheet package: 21 and 12 with 3 assists and 1 steal, at a career-high 56% from the floor. And, most importantly, the Booze did this in 74 games. Even when he hurt his knee, mid-season, Carlos came back earlier than expected, effectively ending accusations that his tolerance-to-pain was somewhere south of Matt Geigeresque.
25. AL JEFFERSON, FC, Timberwolves.
Big Al’s post-All-Star numbers were hefty: 19.9 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG, at a 56 clip from the floor. Kids freaked out, Kevin McHale developed a schoolgirl crush, and, before you knew it, KG was a Celtic. With Jefferson set to be the foundation stone in Minnesota’s rebuilding effort, all expectations are that he’s gonna be 20/10 for the year; a legit fantasy big-man. And yet, keep in mind: those above numbers were posted on a team going out of its way to lose, in those ‘dead months’ at the season’s end where Acie Earl can hang up 40 points or Rex Walters can go for 27, 9, and 11. I mean, Chris Porter averaged 13 and 5 down the stretch of his rookie campaign, then was never heard of again. So why is Jefferson different? Because he’ll be the man in Minnesota. Whilst the Timberwolves have an overcrowded roster, no coach in his right mind is going to play a 47-year-old Juwan Howard or Mark ‘cashing a cheque’ Blount ahead of Jefferson. At just 22 years of age, Jefferson is already a gifted post scorer, an elite offensive rebounder (his 3.4 per were 5th in the league), and someone whose turnovers were surprisingly low (2.0) given the load he carried last go. Put it all together, and Jefferson has the potential to be a top-ten guy this time round. Which means #25 isn’t really going overboard.
26. CARON BUTLER, SF, Wizards.
Whilst the kids call him Tough Juice, I prefer to think of him as C-Butt.
27. MARCUS CAMBY, C, Nuggets.
After playing 70 games for the second time in four years, Marcus’s making a case that he’s not fatally injury-prone, just eternally banged up. Whilst his astonishing defensive/rebounding numbers and deft passing skillzzz would have him lodged in the top 10 if he were forever fit, the fact that you’re essentially punting 15% of the season away drafting Camby has him sliding down the rankings. Even at #27, he’s still a draft-day risk.
28. GERALD WALLACE, F, Bobcats.
The just-as-injured Crash would also crash the top 10 party if healthy; he having developed a Marionesque game that, in many facets, out-Marions Marion. Last year, Wallace was one of 12 NBA players to post multiple 40-point games, averaged 23 and 9 over the season’s final four months, ranked 4th in the league in steals, grabbed the second-most boards by a small-forward (7.2), blocked a shot a night, hit 120 threes, and shot over 50% from the floor. When Wallace is on song, it’s a sweet, sweet tune. Too bad he’s so often achin’.
29. PAUL PIERCE, GF, Celtics.
Whilst Ray Allen will slot alongside KG beautifully, the same can’t be guaranteed of Paul Pierce. Not that he’s destined to honk it up now he’ll be pressed into sharing, but if any of the trio’s stats’re set to slip in this glorious new era of non-kidnapping-caper-comedy Celtic Pride, they be Pierce’s; the career Bostonian favouring a pound-the-ball style that comes from being forever sent into isolation sets. Finding a way to maximise The Truth’s talents whilst keeping the ball moving around the new KG/Ray-Ray/Eddie House lineup would need the work of a sharp coaching mind. Unfortunately, the Cs have Doc Rivers.
30. MICHAEL REDD, GF, Bucks.
When Michael Redd went career-best crazy against the Jazzercisers last season, he should’ve been showered with naught but love. But, as so many pointed out: on a 57-point night, Redd had 2 rebounds and 0 assists. So it goes with the lefty slinger, whose hefty stacks of scoring stats —career best averages in PTS, 3PT, FTM last season— are tempered by his lack of much of anything else at all.
31. JOE JOHNSON, G, Hawks.
I’m still unsure if Joe Johnson’s 25 PPG explosion last season was the latest evolutionary step in an ever-improving career, or if it was just a one-of-those-years aberration. With Josh Smith gunning for alpha-dog status, Al Horford now on the block, and Marvin Williams having apparently learnt how to dribble, I don’t see Johnson being the same scoring-machine this time out. That said, 22/4/4, a steal, and 150 threes ain’t quite the burnt stick in your fantasy roster’s eye, either.
32. MIKE MILLER, GF, Grizzlies.
Doubling as the cutest girl in fantasy hoops, Mikey Miller hung up some mighty stats last year for the Grizzz: 18.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.3 APG, and a 2nd-best-in-the-L 2.9 3PTM. With the Barone-to-Iavaroni switcheroo promising to keep the tempo crankin’ this coming campaign, there’s no reason why Miller couldn’t post that line all over again; making him a deceptively-good fantasy pickup.
33. CARMELO ANTHONY, SF, Nuggets.
Everyone's favourite hightailin' backpedaller (Melo, what're you running from?, etc) became a genuine fantasy contributor last season; posting his first ever positive assist-to-turnover ratio thanks to a career-high 3.8 APG. Still, compared to his robust PPG numbers, Melo's fantasy rank will always be less than you expect.
34. TRACY MCGRADY, GF, Rockets.
Last year, McSooky finally moved into the canny-veteran-with-a-bad-back stage of his NBA tenure. Posting career-low BPG and his lowest-ever rebounding rate, McGrady was obviously no longer the athletic, defensive force he’s been. Instead, he became distributor; with both his assists (6.5) and turnovers (3.0) reaching new heights. This year, on a Rocket roster with about twelve PGs, McGrady may be less of a ballhandler; but the hope is that Rick Adelman’s more free-rein approach to Houston offence (after the Jeff Van Gundy era) could help T-Mac keep his 25-type scoring numbers up. Whilst that’s all well and good, keep in mind Tracy’s only played in an average of 66 contests over the last four seasons.
35. ALLEN IVERSON, G, Nuggets.
After Jim O’Brien moved him back to PG, Iverson posted his two best career seasons in 04/05 and 05/06, improving to the point where he was cracking the fantasy elite. With his assists on the up, his deep-stroke tightening, and the new contact interpretations letting him camp out at the line, the little man’s statistical game overcame his atrocious shot-selection and propensity for turnovers (both products of trying too do to much, not trusting your teammates, making oneself an obvious target for defences, etc). Yet, after posting 33.0 PPG, 9.4 FTM, and 81.4 FT% in his last full Philly season, the Answer’s 50-game stint in Powder Blue has even called his scoring-machine status into question: 24.8 PPG, 6.6 FTM, and 75.9 FT%. And his passing stats, which should theoretically benefit from being surrounded by more talent in a faster-paced system? APG from 7.4 to 7.2, TO from 3.4 to 4.0. So, for anyone expecting 30+ PPG and sweet PG numbers to boot: caveat emptor.
36. TYSON CHANDLER, C, Hornets.
Last season, finally away from the glowering gaze of Scott Skiles, Chandler flourished for the Hornets, putting up way better numbers than Ben Wallace, the old dude the Bulls brought in to ‘upgrade’ his position. Ty lead the league in offensive rebounds —4.4 a night!— whilst hauling in 12.4 RPG, spanking 1.8 BPG, and rounding things off with a career-high 9.5 PPG at an ass-reamingly amazing 62.4 FG%. He even played 73 of the year’s first 75 runs before being shut down. But what has Chandler up this high on the draft board is how he fared once he found his feet. Once the calendar turned over to the ought-seven, the skinny kid done brung it fierce, his averages in the 44 straight contests he played from Jan 2 to Apr 3 rolling: 11.7 PPG, 13.2 RPG, and 1.9 BPG. They’re numbers that he could actually match this whole season.
37. COREY MAGGETTE, GF, Clippers.
Are you ready for Maggette? Beginning last season as the Clips’ forgotten (sixth) man, Corey/Allegory/Montessori exploded after the leaguewide Vegas orgy, his post All-Star Break numbers going: 20.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 7.7 FTM at 79.7%. With Elton Brand sidelined for most of this season’s slate, the Freebie Machine has the potential to lead the league in FTM, and should post career-high rebounding numbers. Something in the neighbourhood of his 04/05 stats —22 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 APG, 1 SPG, and 8 FTM each night— should be just the beginning.
38. ANTAWN JAMISON, F, Wizards.
I remember once watching Jamison play for North Carolina, against NC State, and the young Antawn had some super-weird stat like he scored 30 points even though he only had possession of the ball for 46 seconds of gametime. Of course, I may’ve actually just imagined this, driven insane by the incessant idiocy of “analyst” (or, perhaps, “analrapist”) Dick Vitale. Yet, anyone who watched Jamison play in college saw a clinic in moving without the ball, setting up, catching, finishing. Whilst his game’s evolved much in the decade since, Jamison still does very little needless handling. Meaning, he rarely turns it over. Last year, he coughed it up only 1.5 times a night; and, in the games in which Hibachi! and C-Butt were both in the lineup alongside him, that dropped to 1.3. To go with such, Jamison posted 20 and 8, 2 assists, 2 threes, and a steal per contest. His percentages aren’t particularly power-forwardly, but otherwise Jamison’s game definitely stacks up.
39. KEVIN MARTIN, SG, Kings.
Last year, Kevin Martin needed just 13 FGA a night to hit his 20.2 PPG average. Just as a rough comparison, Richard Hamilton needed 15.6 FGA for his 19.8 PPG, and Larry Hughes’s 13.6 FGA, turned into just 15 points. To get suchbig-man efficiency from a scoring guard is unheard of. On a Kings team going very much nowhere, Martin should see his points rise a little this year; and, if Reggie Theus can truly utilise his lead-guard’s unique talents, Martin’s percentages could clock in at 50/40/85, with sweet steals and threes to boot.
40. CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, PG, Pistons.
When people call Billups’ fantasy game an ‘acquired taste’, it’s often meant as faint praise. Okay, his 8th-best FT% makes the 18th-most FTM, and, thus, Billups can influence that category on his own. His turnovers are still low and, last year, he even set a career high mark for steals. But Mr. Playoff Choke’s points, threes and assists all dropped significantly last year; his 3PT%, most notably, tumbling from 43.3% to 34.5%. Given he’s never been much inside the arc —his first four years in Detroit, he hit at 42.2% inside, 41.1% outside— such slippage from distance is alarming. As is the fact that he’s just turned 31.
41. LAMAR ODOM, F, Lakers.
So, wait, one injury-marred campaign and everyone’s already off the Odom wagon? The ultra-smooth lefty still averaged 16, 10, and 5 on the year, even if his dreadful (29.7%) struggles from range —the product of his sore shoulder/s— curbed a bit of that enthusiasm. Yet, that hardly should lead to the mass-abandonment of a guy who could add the magical boxscore-filling one-steal/one-block/one-three to those triple-double-threat numbers. To me, it’s pretty baffling that Odom is considered a sixth-round pick by many, even as they pencil piles of other injury-risk types in ahead of him.
42. JOSH HOWARD, SF, Mavericks.
After combining for just 81 threes in his first three seasons, Howard hit 92 of them last year; such range-finding bumping his fantasy output way upwards as he posted career-highs in PPG (18.9), RPG (6.8), and BPG (0.8). Notably, his FT% soared, too; the career 72.6% shooter jumping up to 82.7%. Whilst further sharp-improvements this coming campaign are unlikely, Howard has clearly established himself as the second option in Dallas, and his across-the-board numbers add up. If he can stay on the floor —he’s averaged just 68 games a season for his career— Howard will be an even better fantasy play.
43. LUOL DENG, SF, Bulls.
On a perpetually up-and-down Bulls team, the Dengler is as close as you’ll get to a rock. In his breakout 18.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 51.7 FG% season, LuLu posted only four single-figure scoring nights; and only one over the last three months of the season, in which he upped his ante to 20.1 PPG and 7.6 PPG, with his FG% sliding back to 50.6. This year, Deng has the potential to post 20-per on the year, with positive assist/turnover numbers, a steal and a scattering of blocks across his platter. Whilst you could be alarmed that his ‘backup’, Andres Nocioni, demands minutes, take note that Deng has improved noticeably in every season so far; and at just 22, likely isn’t done yet.
44. BRANDON ROY, G, Trailblazers.
Before the preseason dawned, I had the ROY ranked quite higher: he’s undoubtedly going to make a massive improvement in his second season, and his evolution into option #1 in Portland makes a 20/5/5 type season likely. Given he’ll contribute in every category save blocks —his 3PT% could hit 40 this year— Roy should be a fantasy stud in waiting. But, given he managed 57 games battling a variety of injuries last time, missed large stretches of his college career, and is already being ‘rested’ for the possibly the whole exhibition slate, Roy rather resembles an injury-risk in waiting.
45. EMEKA OKAFOR, FC, Bobcats.
Last season was a most unexpected breakout for Okafor, which peaked in career-highs for RPG (11.3), BPG (2.6), and, most importantly, FG%. After shooting a dreadful 41.5% in his truncated sophomore stint, Okafor bumped that shit all the way up to 53.2%, whilst slicing his turnovers from 2.0 to 1.7, and posting a solid 14.4 point per contest. So why the ranking this low? Two words: bad back.
46. JASON RICHARDSON, GF, Bobcats.
On draft night, the expectation was that J-Rich was gonna walk into Charlotte and get ridiculous. But, in his sparing preseason appearances, Richardson hasn’t looked like the guy who hung up 23 and 6 just two years ago. Coming off a hobbled 06/07 campaign, Richardson’s athleticism no longer seems so all-world; and joining a Bobcats squad forever bit by the injury bug hardly augurs confidence. He’s certainly gonna hang up threes in bunches, but it’s starting to seem more like Richo’ll end up at about 18 points per; essentially functioning as a deluxe version of his fellow Richardson, Quentin.
47. KIRK HINRICH, PG, Bulls.
Who would’ve though a guy who looks like such a weenie would end up such a baller. Last year, Cap’n Kirk’s poly-category career-high shooting numbers —44.8 FG%, 41.5 3PT%, 83.5 FT%— helped him hit a personal best 16.6 points per, showing capacity for growth in an otherwise rock-solid game.
48. LEANDRO BARBOSA, G, Suns.
In case you missed it: Lil’ Leandrinho averaged 18.1 PPG last season. Even though he started only 18 games. And played just 32 minutes a tip. The ridiculously-quick Brasilian also hit 190 threes, flirted with a place in the 50/40/80 percentile club, dished out 4.0 APG, and ripped 1.2 steals per. Unless the arrival of Grant Hill and the possible resurrection of Marcus Banks eat too much into his minutes, Barbosa should still be good to go for scoring outbursts at powerful percentages.
49. JASON TERRY, G, Mavericks.
So, is anyone else worried about Avery Johnson’s talk of the backcourt roles being up in the air, with JT and Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse and Trenton Hassell and Eddie Jones and Mo Ager all apparently duking it out? Since arriving in Dallas, Terry has sliced down on the TOs and upped the percentages, to the point where the high-sock’d guard is thought of as sound veteran, not eager chucker. Last year, his %s went 48/44/80; lessening the blow of his declining STL numbers. Before the preseason, I figured Socks was a lock for 17 and 5 and 150 threes, but now I’m not so convinced. He should still be very productive, but if he’s not the lead point-guard, who knows what that productivity will mean.
50. JERMAINE O’NEAL, FC, Pacers.
Perhaps naught surmises the Pacers’ falling fortunes more than the fate of its franchise player. Once thought of as peer to Duncan, Brand et al, O’Neal has slipped to league’s second-tier of big-men; an oft-injured veteran whose best years already seem a long time gone. Last season, O’Neal’s numbers waned to 19.4 PPG and 9.6 RPG, the first time he hasn’t posted 20 a night since 01/02. More disconcertingly, he again coughed it up 3 times a night, and, most woefully, shot just 43.6% from the floor, a lower clip than Kirk Hinrich, Baron Davis, Allen Iverson, JR Smith, TJ Ford, Chris Paul, and countless other percentage-challenged guards. When coupled with his incredibly-high injury risk, Jermaine is lucky to still be ranked this high.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Fantasy Rankification!: 51-100.
Given this is, in theory, the dear-diary devoted to the sexual-fantasy basketball boxscore scouring, I thought it might be time to set aside the JJ-Redick-Poetry-Nights and/or Searing-Analysis-Of-Racial-Biases and do something so fantasy-friendly as rank up a top 100. I mean, after all, I have a draft of my own looming this coming Sunday; perhaps it's time to lay things out. If only for m'self. So, here goes the second-half of the hundy; with the big boys on their way sometime soonlike.
51. BEN GORDON, G, Bulls.
Last year was an evolutionary one for Gordon. The one-time one-dimensional scorer became a really amazing one-dimensional scorer, exploding for 21.4 PPG, upping his FG% to 45.5, and adding career-highs in rebounds and assists to boot. Oh, and his 380 FTM —up from 211 the year prior— were good for 19th in the league; ahead of stud big-men like Brand and Duncan. The one-time threes specialist has upped his game to the point where he’s a legitimate fantasy force; especially given the fact that he never misses a game.
52. LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE, FC, Trailblazers.
Aldridge in the ought-eight is gonna be well Mexico. The Bail-raisers have the cavernous hole in the interior, and this new-millennial Robert Parish will be lofting high-release jumpers aplenty as Paul Allen’s PDX red-pyjama party goes searching for any kind of offence not named Brandon Roy. In 14 March starts, Aldridge gave us a taste of this season to come: 15.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 1.7 BPG, at 55.5% from the floor. That was when Zach Randolph was still in town, too. As the #1 interior option, the sky’s really the limit for LaMarcus; even if he’s still asterisk’d as potential injury risk.
53. KEVIN DURANT, GF, Sonics.
It’s impossible to know what Durant’s capable of as an NBA rookie, though Carmelo’s first-year numbers could be a guide: 21.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 42.6 FG%, 3.0 TPG. Likely to struggle with shooting numbers and turnovers early, anyone picking Durant is doing so on the potential that, once he gets adjusted to the NBA, his numbers in the new year are going to be phenomenal. At this stage, it’s hard to pick Durant much higher than this, but if he can consistently hit the three, and if the Sonics play at an offensively-friendly pace, KD could easily be climbing the fantasy rankings.
54. MIKE BIBBY, PG, Kings.
Playing though the pain of an injured hand in the season’s early days, the artist formerly known as stud PG Mike Bibby honked it up mighty. In the 25 Kings kontests before the calendar hit Jesus’s birthday jamboree, Bibby posted numbers that’d make Santa Claus himself vomit with rage: 16.3 PPG, 35.1 FG%, 25.1 3PT%, 1.2 3PT, 2.7 TO. Post-Boxing Day, Bibby righted that ship, going, for the rest of the way: 17.4 PPG, 42.8 FG%, 39.8 3PT%, 2.4 3P, 2.3 TO; all whilst not missing a game. Yet, Bibby’s assists, rebounds, and steals all declined; on the whole year, but also as the season progressed, nearly negating the improved shooting. Whilst he still has tremendous value as a deep man, the days of Bibby as a #1 PG seem long hosed.
55. TONY PARKER, PG, Spurs.
Whilst the mighty monobrow was, for so long, fantasy poison due to his meagre assist numbers and non-existent range, his evolution into percentage maestro putting up robust scoring numbers has made him a solid second-tier performer. But, personally, I could never draft someone whose incredibly creepy, dwarfish, fame-whoring wife simply must be interviewed in the middle of every Spurs game.
56. ANDREI KIRILENKO, F, Jazz.
Once rated a top-10 fantasy force, Kirilenko is now a shot-blocker deluxe who offers little of anything else, especially reliability. If he ever got traded to some running team that played him as a freelancing four —like, oh, say, Phoenix— AK47’s fantasy rank would go through the roof. As of now, in Utah, he holds more ‘specialist’ value.
57. RASHEED WALLACE, FC, Pistons.
At a freshly-turned 33, Rasheed Wallace is certainly starting to slow; his scoring falling from 15.1 to 12.4 PPG last season, the lowest it’s been since Sheed’s rookie campaign (for the Bullets!). Yet, as long as he hits 1.4 threes, rips 1.0 steals, and blocks 1.6 shots, the grumpy old man will hold fantasy value way beyond his points/rebounds.
58. DAVID WEST, PF, Hornets.
I get the feeling that very few casual NBA fans would even know who David West was, let alone that he’s been the NOOKies' leading scorer for the past two seasons. Last year, once healthy, West upped his output to 18.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG, and, down the stretch, as the Hornets battled to stay in playoff contention, he killed it for 24.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG over the final 10 contests. Whilst West is what he is —a jumpshooting big-man— his anonymity could lead him to be undervalued in your league.
59. RON ARTEST, SF, Kings.
If Coach Bill Fuller really does run him at the PF, Artest will be a load both on the court and in the boxscore. But can any GM really gamble on Ron-Ron any earlier than this? Could anyone feel comfortable banking their fantasy season on someone so determinedly insane? Unless, of course, the Maloofs’re in your league?
60. MEHMET OKUR, FC, Jazz.
So, whilst his massive spike in three-pointers (129 on the year) turned the Fat Turk and his amusing facial-hair into one of basketball’s more unlikely All-Star stories, did anyone else notice that his rebounds dropped from 9.1 to 7.2? And his blocks from 0.9 to 0.5? And his FTM from 4.3 to 3.7? Whilst such may seem like statistical quibbling, I’m wondering how far Okur is from being naught but a deep-ball specialist.
61. MO WILLIAMS, PG, Bucks.
Mo Will was one of the breakout performers of last season; averaging across-the-board career-highs of 17.1 PPG, an astonishing 4.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Whilst his three-point stroke ain’t so tight (34.7%) and his turnovers are downright frightening (3.0), there’s plenty to like about one of the NBA’s more promising, under-the-radar young PGs.
62. RAYMOND FELTON, G, Bobcats.
So, by now we’ve come to know that the North Carolina scouting report —Felton: can’t shoot— is pretty accurate (38.4 FG%, 33.0 3PT%). But with the Bobcats promising some sort of uptempo, defensively-disinterested season, Felton’s shooting numbers could easily rise by dint of transition baskets and increased penetration. Most importantly, I’d be expecting his assist numbers to hit 8 per this season; ensconcing him amongst the ever-rarified APG elite, and making him a viable fantasy PG play.
63. MANU GINOBILI, SG, Spurs.
I know his across-the-board numbers end up giving him the solid ranking, but I find it eternally hard to be excited about the prospect of drafting a guy who has a hypnotoad baldspot, flops more than a Fantastic Four film, and plays for a dreary team from one of North America’s most unspeakably awful cities. Seriously, if they were the Austin Spurs, they’d be roughly 500 times less reprehensible.
64. RICHARD JEFFERSON, SF, Nets.
Whilst RJ’s numbers took an alarming tumble last year, especially in its early going, the third-best player from Arizona finished strong, once he’d shaken off the injuries. Over the last 19 games, Jefferson averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG and, impressively, hit 28/71 threes at 39.4%. This year, the hope is he's good to go with those for the whole time.
65. SAMUEL DALEMBERT, C, Sixers.
Did anyone notice that Dalembert posted clear career-highs in points (10.7), rebounds (8.9), and assists (a mighty 0.8), and FT% (74.6) last season? All whilst blocking 1.9 shots a night (and goaltending at least a couple more), dumping it in at 54.1% from the floor, and playing in all 82 games? Or are people still too pissed off that he never became the all-star that they —and Billy King— once dreamt of him being?
66. PEJA STOJAKOVIC, GF, Hornets.
Fresh off signing some zany free-agent pact, Peja was disappointing long before he took the year off to rest his achey breaky back. But, such said, even then the Serbian sniper was nailing 2.6 threes a game at 40.5%. Whilst his health the past couple seasons has turned Stojakovic into a perpetual question-mark, taking a flyer seven rounds in on a guy who could average 18, 5, and nearly three three-balls each outing is a calculated risk that could reap sweet rewards.
67. DAVID LEE, F, Knicks.
The arrival of Zach Randolph will’ve, in many people’s minds, had a huge negative impact on David Lee’s fantasy value. But, here’s the thing: last year, he needed only 29 minutes a night to post his 10.7 PPG and 10.4 RPG. Plus, his insane percentages —60.0 FG%, 83.1 FT%— make him effective no matter what the burn. My guess: his stats may come down a shade, but not enough to have him freefalling as far as #84, his current Yahoo! rank.
68. DANNY GRANGER, F, Pacers.
Last year I was watching an Indiana game, and heard a commentator remark that Granger “wasn’t really a three-point shooter” when speaking of which Pacer might take a down-the-stretch three. Obviously, said talking-head didn’t do fantasy in his spare-time. For, anyone who owned Granger would know that the three was the sharpest tool in his shed; the Lobo hitting 110 triples at 38.2%. Unfortunately, Granger’s steal/block totals were almost exactly the same as his rookie year, despite the extra 1000 minutes he played on the season; meaning, anyone hoping he’d become a kind of b-grade Gerald Wallace remained disappointed.
69. AL HARRINGTON, FC, Warriors.
Has anyone else noticed that “Babyfat” Al Harrington is replicating Sam Perkins’ career? From lithe, defensively-aggressive swing-forward, to chubby, slow-footed, vertically-challenged centre chucking up threes at a ridiculous rate, Harrington is but a few tokes away from being the Big Smooth all over again. Last year, Harrington played C in both Indiana and Oakland, drilled 127 three-balls at 43.3%, and, once arrived in Don Nelson’s drunken offence, posted 17.0 PPG and 6.4 RPG a contest. Sure, his passing numbers are a disaster and his hustle-board stats surely poorly, but portly Al’s C eligibility and burgeoning deep-ball game make him a solid selection this far into things.
70. ZACH RANDOLPH, PF, Knicks.
Having a guy who averaged 23 and 10 this far down, below a teammate who averaged just 10 per contest, might seem strange, but beyond his robust scoring totals, Randolph’s fantasy game slips quickly away; his meagre 15 blocks contributing to him having as many turnovers as assists, steals, and blocks combined. If Eddy Curry misses any length of time, Randolph will still be a strong pickup; otherwise, his likely 18 and 9 returns make him a potential fantasy disappointment.
71. ANDRE MILLER, PG, Sixers.
Just as long as you don’t expect him to hit any threes at all, Dr.Dre is a solid yet most unsexy PG pickup. His assists took quite a hit when he went from Furious George’s stat-happy Nuggets machine to being but the lesser of two Andres in the Philly backcourt; dropping a whole two a game. Meaning, these days he's a limited (steals/assists) contributor more than undervalued fantasy factor.
72. ANDREW BOGUT, C, Bucks.
If he can get his FT% out of the toilet, the Association’s proudest Essendon Bomber could be a robust far-into-the-draft fantasy selection; a passing centre (3.0 APG) whose 12.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 55.3 FG% are solid big-man returns. Oh, and he’s still only 22.
73. BEN WALLACE, FC, Bulls.
So, um, I wouldn’t go anywhere near him. But anyone who averaged 10.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG, and 2.0 BPG last time out still has fantasy value, no matter how putrescent their offensive output, no matter how noticeably they’re slipping at 33 years of age with their athleticism starting to wane. Tyson Chandler he ain’t.
74. ANDRIS BIEDRINS, C, Warriors.
Given there’s no knowing what role Nellie’s sketched out in his beer-drinking basketball barney for Biedrins to fill, luckily the heavily hair-gel’d Latvian Orthodox beanpole produces in limited tick; last go’s 9.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 1.7 BPG coming in just 29 minutes per. Of more concern is his late-season swoon. In the Warriors’ final 11 runs, where the Bay Area Bombers went 9-2 to pinch a playoff spot, Biedrins averaged but 22.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 0.8 blocks. Oh, and, if Brandan Wright shows anything, his minutes will come at Biedrins’ expense.
75. RANDY FOYE, G, Timberwolves.
Whilst most other positions for the T-Pups're in total flux, here’s one thing we know: Foye will run the one. And, unlike last year, get to play through his mistakes. Given how horrifically he struggled with TOs as a rook, it’s hard to get too excited about Randy Randy, but the games in which he played over 30 minutes offered some suh-weet stats: 15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, and 1.3 3PFG. And, for a guy who shot 43.3% for the year, his final 16 games show an interesting FG% return: 50.0% exactly. Whilst it’s still to-be-seen whether he, like Chauncey Billups, can one day become an actual genuine NBA point guard, Foye will definitely experience the second-year jump this coming campaign.
76. RICKY DAVIS, GF, Timberwolves.
From here, Ricky Ricky could actually be either boon or bust. At this stage it’s eminently possible that he could become the leading scorer and #1 shot-taker on the young ex-Celtics, trying to lead the only way he knows how (ie: jacking it up). Or, he could lose out minutes to Foye, Brewer, McCants, Green, Buckner, Jaric, Gomes, and the teeming Timberwolf masses; eventually being essentially ‘benched’ in favour of developing the kids. In fact, he could start the season piling up points like crazy, then end it sitting aside so ’Sota can “develop” Gerald Green. Or, he could actually find his minutes being heavily reduced, until being dealt to a contender at the deadline; or, even, being waived with a month or so to go, so he can sign on somewhere else. Or, he could die in a nightclub gunfight. Given such unpredictability, count me as squirmy on Ricky's prospects.
77. MORRIS PETERSON, GF, Hornets.
Last year, Peterson was a flaccid fantasy pick: his minutes plummeted to 21 a game, and he received 11 DNP-CDs. Yet, when not bound to the bench, Mo Pete was ever-productive: hitting 106 threes, whilst posting per-40-minute averages of 16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. This year, suiting up for the eternally banged-up Hornets, Peterson could potentially average 40 minutes a game. Making him, one year on, the sweetest of fantasy sleepers.
78. T.J. FORD, PG, Raptors.
Whilst the TJ/Chuckles trade was always going to be a basketball/chemistry/karma windfall for the Raps, it wasn’t obvious how much Ford’s fantasy game would benefit. Leading the T-Dot playoff party charge, Ford went completely career-high mad, cranking out 14.0 PPG, 7.9 APG, and 1.4 SPG, whilst raising his FG% to an almost-passable 43.6. All whilst playing six less minutes a night than he did for the Bucks the year prior. This coming season, his tick could actually rise, as Sam Mitchell may actually realise that playing Ford and José Calderón together is quite the bright idea.
79. ANDREA BARGNANI, F, Raptors.
Cats who both block shots and bomb threes’re rare, and Bargnani showed he could do each productively in a way-up-and-down rookie turn, dropping 2.4 threes and swatting 1.3 shots per 40 minutes. In the 22 games he played over 30 minutes as a rookie, Bargnani posted 15.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 0.9 BPG, and 2.4 triples, and, with a rough year under his Italian leather belt, his numbers could even be better than that, for 07/08 in total. Installed as Toronto’s starting centre for the foreseeable future, the Italian Stallion should ride his way into genuine fantasy productivity this season.
80. STEPHON MARBURY, PG, Knicks.
Did you know that ‘In The Truck’ had three 40-point games last season? AKA: as many as Dirk, LeBron, and Melo combined? He also ended up with averages of 16.4 and 5.4, ripped a steal a night and hit 1.7 threes per. He’s a mere shadow of the Starbury that existed before Larry Brown ruined his career, but Marbury still holds fantasy value; especially since he’ll likely be draft-day poison in most leagues. Given he’s, y’know, morphed into the Tom Cruise of basketball.
81. ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKAS, C, Cavaliers.
To draft Big Z is to flog a dying horse. There’s still some life left in the beast. But only just.
82. RICHARD HAMILTON, SG, Pistons.
If you’re the kind of guy obsessed with ‘percentages’, drafting Hamilton might be a fine idea. For my tastes, he’s too one-dimensional to ever think of picking up.
83. RUDY GAY, GF, Grizzlies.
Relying on an athlete as laissez-faire as Big Gay Rudy is never a wise idea. But, his rookie stats ooze with potential. In the 32 games he played 30+, Gay went for 16.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, and 1.2 threes per night. If Marc Iavaroni pushes the tempo in Memphis, and Gay gets minutes as an undersized four, his stats could be that good all year; though his FG percentage (42.2%) seems unlikely to pick up no matter what situation he finds himself in.
84. SHANE BATTIER, SF, Rockets.
Fantasy basketball’s greatest across-the-boxscore blender since Doug Christie. That said, with all the new blood in Houston, will his numbers slide to the point of inconsequence? Should Luis Scola actually be in this draft position?
85. DORELL WRIGHT, SF, Heat.
Repeat after me: the 15 times Wright played 30+ minutes last year, he averaged 12.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.3 BPG. This year, with Jason Kapono and James Posey gone, he could play 30+ every single night.
86. MONTA ELLIS, G, Warriors.
Okay, he finished in the top ten in SPG last year, and shot a pretty robust 47.5% from the floor on his way to a super-breakout 16.5 PPG. But, isn’t anyone else worried that the Warriors have brought in Marco Belinelli and Troy Hudson? And might look to have Kelenna Azubuike in the rotation? And could play Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes on the wings more than up front? So, then, we must ask: Is Ellis still going to get 30+ minutes per? And will he lay off the bricklaying from distance, and Tony Parker his way to a higher ranking by constantly penetrating? Of course, if B-Diddy gets hurt, his value goes through the roof. Otherwise, colour me cautious.
87. RAJON RONDO, PG, Celtics.
Though it’s tough to pick a guy who probably won’t even average in double-figure points this early, Rondo should post some healthy assist numbers, and could quite easily lead the league in steals. But, whilst that’s the good stuff, know that there’re going to be a few 4, 2 and 4 type nights in there, too.
88. BORIS DIAW, FC, Suns.
Fitter, faster, stronger, less resembling a roasting gosling, Boris is back in the valley of the shadow of Nash, hoping to live down the letdown campaign he posted last-time out, in which his numbers took a tumble from the out-of-the-box MIP go-round that preceded such. With Grant Hill in town, it’s possible Boris could get even less burn than the 31 per he ran last season. But, it’s also likely that Diaw won’t be as lame in his court-time as he was in the second-half of last season.
89. JAMAL CRAWFORD, SG, Knicks.
If percentages’re your bag, you might want to steer clear of Jamal. But anyone in on high-volume jacking, points in bunches, and underrated assists should feel free to apply.
90. RAJA BELL, SG, Suns.
2.6 threes per game at 41.3%.
91. KYLE KORVER, SF, Sixers.
Whilst Kylie Kutcher cranked only an astonishingly meek 307 triple-tries last season (he hit 132, at 43.0%), he upped his scoring to a career-high 14.4 per, and shot a blistering 91.4% at the line. On a Sixers team forever in need of any kind of offensive spark, he could score even more this time around. And, hopefully his made threes’ll get back somewhere near the 205-a-season he averaged the two years prior to last.
92. BRAD MILLER, C, Kings.
Was it only two years ago Miller was a top 25 pick? Now, it’s possible all he has left is funny hair and DNPs.
93. CHRIS KAMAN, C, Clippers.
After a 12.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 52.3 FG% turn in 05/06, Kaman was a fantasy bust last season; his inconsistent output finishing up at 10.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG, and 45.1%. This year, with Elton Brand on the sidelines ’til death do us part, the Clippers are desperately in need of anything resembling a warm body inside, let alone a post presence. Kaman’s inevitable place as #1 interior option should, theoretically, get his numbers heading back towards what they were back when the Clips were a playoff squad.
94. NENÊ, FC, Nuggets.
Across the second half of last season, Nenê averaged 15 and 8, with a steal and a block per night thrown in. And shot 61.8% from the floor. It was the long-time-coming delivery on his unspeakable genetically-gifted promise; and such an unexpected explosion that it actually managed to make that idiotic $60mil contract seem less idiotic. But, should anyone bank on Nenê doing this for a whole year? Isn’t he more likely to get hurt than tear it up like that for an entire season?
95. DREW GOODEN, PF, Cavaliers.
So, as we inch ever-closer towards the season, it’s actually growing possible that Anderson Varejão won’t, thanks to Dan Fegan, be showing up to start the season. If that’s the case, Gooden could be on his way to a surprising fantasy campaign. With the arrival of Mike Brown’s bogged-down offence and the emergence of Varejão, Gooden’s numbers’ve dipped for the past couple campaigns; down from the 14.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG, and 81.0 FT% he posted in 04/05, to 10.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.4 BPG, and 69.5 FT% over the past two seasons. If the frizzy-hair’d Brasilian were to skip out on the year, Gooden could easily be a very productive, late-in-the-draft big-man; he still only 26, and still the second-most talented Cavalier.
96. TROY MURPHY, FC, Pacers.
Last year Murphy was completely out of his element amidst the frenzy of Nellie Ball, but he still found time to hit 58 threes at 40.0%. This year, playing for three-happy Jim O’Brien, as the Pacers’ starting centre, the southpaw’ll certainly up those deep-ball numbers. If he can get his RPG back anywhere near his career form (he averaged 10.4 over the previous two seasons before last year’s dreadful 6.0 per), Murphy could be a surprising fantasy factor.
97. AL HORFORD, FC, Hawks.
In four preseason contests thus far, the #3 pick has averaged 10.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 0.7 BPG, 50% FG, in 27 MPG. And this for a Hawks team already running their regular-season rotation. As the season progresses, it shouldn’t be hard for the incredibly-talented Horford to garner even more minutes; he only needing beat out offensive liability Smelldon ‘Downsy’ Williams and defensive liability Zaza Pachulia to get more burn. Horford’s court sense and deft passing skills should mean, when he does play, that he’ll avoid the turnover problems that mar so many rookie bigs. Drafting NBA freshmen is always a fantasy gamble; but Horford’s double-double potential and shotblocking skills offer more reward than other around-these-parts big-men like Chris Wilcox and Udonis Haslem.
98. GRANT HILL, SF, Suns.
Yeah, sure, he’s the injury risk, and, last year, his game seemed to decline to the point where he was just the (incredibly accurate) mid-range jump-shooter. But playing for Phoenix does strange things to men, and I’m guessing that more of Hill’s once-complete game will come out to shine. In two exhibition games in hideous purple-and-grey, Hill’s gone for 14.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and even hit two threes, as many as he made in each of his previous two seasons in Orlando.
99. CHUCKY ATKINS, Nuggets.
Last year, ever-chuckin’ Chucky had a very productive season when he was allowed to run the show for the Grizzz. In the 30 games in which he hit the floor for 30+, Chucky chucked up 17.5 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 2.3 threes at 38.6%. Part of this was playing for a Memphis team lacking offensive options, and part of this was Tony Barone’s run-and-gun fun. But, taking his bag to Denver won’t hurt such; and, should he step into Steve Blake’s vacated PG role, Chucky’ll have a green light to chuck it on a team in desperate need of shooting.
100. CHANNING FRYE, FC, Trailblazers.
Having burst into the NBA consciousness as a jump-shooting, pick-and-roll-running rookie deluxe, Frye tumbled into a sophomore slump in his second season; his numbers down across the board. Especially offensively: he dropping from 47.7% to 43.3% from the floor, on the way down from 12.3 to 9.5 PPG, even though he was getting more minutes. Possibly a victim of Isiah Thomas’s coaching limitations and/or the toxic sludge of MSG chemistry, Frye has been liberated, arriving on a Portland team in desperate need of able-bodied big-men. It would take only an injury to the fore’er-injured Joel Przybilla to have Frye clocking 35+ a night. His per-30-minute averages across his first two years go: 12.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.8 BPG. Finding himself in a more productivity-conducive environment, the still-young Frye could easily improve on those numbers, and is a nice end-of-draft type sleeper.
128. J.J. REDICK, G, Magic.
Do it. Just do it.
51. BEN GORDON, G, Bulls.
Last year was an evolutionary one for Gordon. The one-time one-dimensional scorer became a really amazing one-dimensional scorer, exploding for 21.4 PPG, upping his FG% to 45.5, and adding career-highs in rebounds and assists to boot. Oh, and his 380 FTM —up from 211 the year prior— were good for 19th in the league; ahead of stud big-men like Brand and Duncan. The one-time threes specialist has upped his game to the point where he’s a legitimate fantasy force; especially given the fact that he never misses a game.
52. LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE, FC, Trailblazers.
Aldridge in the ought-eight is gonna be well Mexico. The Bail-raisers have the cavernous hole in the interior, and this new-millennial Robert Parish will be lofting high-release jumpers aplenty as Paul Allen’s PDX red-pyjama party goes searching for any kind of offence not named Brandon Roy. In 14 March starts, Aldridge gave us a taste of this season to come: 15.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 1.7 BPG, at 55.5% from the floor. That was when Zach Randolph was still in town, too. As the #1 interior option, the sky’s really the limit for LaMarcus; even if he’s still asterisk’d as potential injury risk.
53. KEVIN DURANT, GF, Sonics.
It’s impossible to know what Durant’s capable of as an NBA rookie, though Carmelo’s first-year numbers could be a guide: 21.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 42.6 FG%, 3.0 TPG. Likely to struggle with shooting numbers and turnovers early, anyone picking Durant is doing so on the potential that, once he gets adjusted to the NBA, his numbers in the new year are going to be phenomenal. At this stage, it’s hard to pick Durant much higher than this, but if he can consistently hit the three, and if the Sonics play at an offensively-friendly pace, KD could easily be climbing the fantasy rankings.
54. MIKE BIBBY, PG, Kings.
Playing though the pain of an injured hand in the season’s early days, the artist formerly known as stud PG Mike Bibby honked it up mighty. In the 25 Kings kontests before the calendar hit Jesus’s birthday jamboree, Bibby posted numbers that’d make Santa Claus himself vomit with rage: 16.3 PPG, 35.1 FG%, 25.1 3PT%, 1.2 3PT, 2.7 TO. Post-Boxing Day, Bibby righted that ship, going, for the rest of the way: 17.4 PPG, 42.8 FG%, 39.8 3PT%, 2.4 3P, 2.3 TO; all whilst not missing a game. Yet, Bibby’s assists, rebounds, and steals all declined; on the whole year, but also as the season progressed, nearly negating the improved shooting. Whilst he still has tremendous value as a deep man, the days of Bibby as a #1 PG seem long hosed.
55. TONY PARKER, PG, Spurs.
Whilst the mighty monobrow was, for so long, fantasy poison due to his meagre assist numbers and non-existent range, his evolution into percentage maestro putting up robust scoring numbers has made him a solid second-tier performer. But, personally, I could never draft someone whose incredibly creepy, dwarfish, fame-whoring wife simply must be interviewed in the middle of every Spurs game.
56. ANDREI KIRILENKO, F, Jazz.
Once rated a top-10 fantasy force, Kirilenko is now a shot-blocker deluxe who offers little of anything else, especially reliability. If he ever got traded to some running team that played him as a freelancing four —like, oh, say, Phoenix— AK47’s fantasy rank would go through the roof. As of now, in Utah, he holds more ‘specialist’ value.
57. RASHEED WALLACE, FC, Pistons.
At a freshly-turned 33, Rasheed Wallace is certainly starting to slow; his scoring falling from 15.1 to 12.4 PPG last season, the lowest it’s been since Sheed’s rookie campaign (for the Bullets!). Yet, as long as he hits 1.4 threes, rips 1.0 steals, and blocks 1.6 shots, the grumpy old man will hold fantasy value way beyond his points/rebounds.
58. DAVID WEST, PF, Hornets.
I get the feeling that very few casual NBA fans would even know who David West was, let alone that he’s been the NOOKies' leading scorer for the past two seasons. Last year, once healthy, West upped his output to 18.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG, and, down the stretch, as the Hornets battled to stay in playoff contention, he killed it for 24.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG over the final 10 contests. Whilst West is what he is —a jumpshooting big-man— his anonymity could lead him to be undervalued in your league.
59. RON ARTEST, SF, Kings.
If Coach Bill Fuller really does run him at the PF, Artest will be a load both on the court and in the boxscore. But can any GM really gamble on Ron-Ron any earlier than this? Could anyone feel comfortable banking their fantasy season on someone so determinedly insane? Unless, of course, the Maloofs’re in your league?
60. MEHMET OKUR, FC, Jazz.
So, whilst his massive spike in three-pointers (129 on the year) turned the Fat Turk and his amusing facial-hair into one of basketball’s more unlikely All-Star stories, did anyone else notice that his rebounds dropped from 9.1 to 7.2? And his blocks from 0.9 to 0.5? And his FTM from 4.3 to 3.7? Whilst such may seem like statistical quibbling, I’m wondering how far Okur is from being naught but a deep-ball specialist.
61. MO WILLIAMS, PG, Bucks.
Mo Will was one of the breakout performers of last season; averaging across-the-board career-highs of 17.1 PPG, an astonishing 4.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Whilst his three-point stroke ain’t so tight (34.7%) and his turnovers are downright frightening (3.0), there’s plenty to like about one of the NBA’s more promising, under-the-radar young PGs.
62. RAYMOND FELTON, G, Bobcats.
So, by now we’ve come to know that the North Carolina scouting report —Felton: can’t shoot— is pretty accurate (38.4 FG%, 33.0 3PT%). But with the Bobcats promising some sort of uptempo, defensively-disinterested season, Felton’s shooting numbers could easily rise by dint of transition baskets and increased penetration. Most importantly, I’d be expecting his assist numbers to hit 8 per this season; ensconcing him amongst the ever-rarified APG elite, and making him a viable fantasy PG play.
63. MANU GINOBILI, SG, Spurs.
I know his across-the-board numbers end up giving him the solid ranking, but I find it eternally hard to be excited about the prospect of drafting a guy who has a hypnotoad baldspot, flops more than a Fantastic Four film, and plays for a dreary team from one of North America’s most unspeakably awful cities. Seriously, if they were the Austin Spurs, they’d be roughly 500 times less reprehensible.
64. RICHARD JEFFERSON, SF, Nets.
Whilst RJ’s numbers took an alarming tumble last year, especially in its early going, the third-best player from Arizona finished strong, once he’d shaken off the injuries. Over the last 19 games, Jefferson averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG and, impressively, hit 28/71 threes at 39.4%. This year, the hope is he's good to go with those for the whole time.
65. SAMUEL DALEMBERT, C, Sixers.
Did anyone notice that Dalembert posted clear career-highs in points (10.7), rebounds (8.9), and assists (a mighty 0.8), and FT% (74.6) last season? All whilst blocking 1.9 shots a night (and goaltending at least a couple more), dumping it in at 54.1% from the floor, and playing in all 82 games? Or are people still too pissed off that he never became the all-star that they —and Billy King— once dreamt of him being?
66. PEJA STOJAKOVIC, GF, Hornets.
Fresh off signing some zany free-agent pact, Peja was disappointing long before he took the year off to rest his achey breaky back. But, such said, even then the Serbian sniper was nailing 2.6 threes a game at 40.5%. Whilst his health the past couple seasons has turned Stojakovic into a perpetual question-mark, taking a flyer seven rounds in on a guy who could average 18, 5, and nearly three three-balls each outing is a calculated risk that could reap sweet rewards.
67. DAVID LEE, F, Knicks.
The arrival of Zach Randolph will’ve, in many people’s minds, had a huge negative impact on David Lee’s fantasy value. But, here’s the thing: last year, he needed only 29 minutes a night to post his 10.7 PPG and 10.4 RPG. Plus, his insane percentages —60.0 FG%, 83.1 FT%— make him effective no matter what the burn. My guess: his stats may come down a shade, but not enough to have him freefalling as far as #84, his current Yahoo! rank.
68. DANNY GRANGER, F, Pacers.
Last year I was watching an Indiana game, and heard a commentator remark that Granger “wasn’t really a three-point shooter” when speaking of which Pacer might take a down-the-stretch three. Obviously, said talking-head didn’t do fantasy in his spare-time. For, anyone who owned Granger would know that the three was the sharpest tool in his shed; the Lobo hitting 110 triples at 38.2%. Unfortunately, Granger’s steal/block totals were almost exactly the same as his rookie year, despite the extra 1000 minutes he played on the season; meaning, anyone hoping he’d become a kind of b-grade Gerald Wallace remained disappointed.
69. AL HARRINGTON, FC, Warriors.
Has anyone else noticed that “Babyfat” Al Harrington is replicating Sam Perkins’ career? From lithe, defensively-aggressive swing-forward, to chubby, slow-footed, vertically-challenged centre chucking up threes at a ridiculous rate, Harrington is but a few tokes away from being the Big Smooth all over again. Last year, Harrington played C in both Indiana and Oakland, drilled 127 three-balls at 43.3%, and, once arrived in Don Nelson’s drunken offence, posted 17.0 PPG and 6.4 RPG a contest. Sure, his passing numbers are a disaster and his hustle-board stats surely poorly, but portly Al’s C eligibility and burgeoning deep-ball game make him a solid selection this far into things.
70. ZACH RANDOLPH, PF, Knicks.
Having a guy who averaged 23 and 10 this far down, below a teammate who averaged just 10 per contest, might seem strange, but beyond his robust scoring totals, Randolph’s fantasy game slips quickly away; his meagre 15 blocks contributing to him having as many turnovers as assists, steals, and blocks combined. If Eddy Curry misses any length of time, Randolph will still be a strong pickup; otherwise, his likely 18 and 9 returns make him a potential fantasy disappointment.
71. ANDRE MILLER, PG, Sixers.
Just as long as you don’t expect him to hit any threes at all, Dr.Dre is a solid yet most unsexy PG pickup. His assists took quite a hit when he went from Furious George’s stat-happy Nuggets machine to being but the lesser of two Andres in the Philly backcourt; dropping a whole two a game. Meaning, these days he's a limited (steals/assists) contributor more than undervalued fantasy factor.
72. ANDREW BOGUT, C, Bucks.
If he can get his FT% out of the toilet, the Association’s proudest Essendon Bomber could be a robust far-into-the-draft fantasy selection; a passing centre (3.0 APG) whose 12.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 55.3 FG% are solid big-man returns. Oh, and he’s still only 22.
73. BEN WALLACE, FC, Bulls.
So, um, I wouldn’t go anywhere near him. But anyone who averaged 10.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG, and 2.0 BPG last time out still has fantasy value, no matter how putrescent their offensive output, no matter how noticeably they’re slipping at 33 years of age with their athleticism starting to wane. Tyson Chandler he ain’t.
74. ANDRIS BIEDRINS, C, Warriors.
Given there’s no knowing what role Nellie’s sketched out in his beer-drinking basketball barney for Biedrins to fill, luckily the heavily hair-gel’d Latvian Orthodox beanpole produces in limited tick; last go’s 9.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 1.7 BPG coming in just 29 minutes per. Of more concern is his late-season swoon. In the Warriors’ final 11 runs, where the Bay Area Bombers went 9-2 to pinch a playoff spot, Biedrins averaged but 22.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 0.8 blocks. Oh, and, if Brandan Wright shows anything, his minutes will come at Biedrins’ expense.
75. RANDY FOYE, G, Timberwolves.
Whilst most other positions for the T-Pups're in total flux, here’s one thing we know: Foye will run the one. And, unlike last year, get to play through his mistakes. Given how horrifically he struggled with TOs as a rook, it’s hard to get too excited about Randy Randy, but the games in which he played over 30 minutes offered some suh-weet stats: 15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, and 1.3 3PFG. And, for a guy who shot 43.3% for the year, his final 16 games show an interesting FG% return: 50.0% exactly. Whilst it’s still to-be-seen whether he, like Chauncey Billups, can one day become an actual genuine NBA point guard, Foye will definitely experience the second-year jump this coming campaign.
76. RICKY DAVIS, GF, Timberwolves.
From here, Ricky Ricky could actually be either boon or bust. At this stage it’s eminently possible that he could become the leading scorer and #1 shot-taker on the young ex-Celtics, trying to lead the only way he knows how (ie: jacking it up). Or, he could lose out minutes to Foye, Brewer, McCants, Green, Buckner, Jaric, Gomes, and the teeming Timberwolf masses; eventually being essentially ‘benched’ in favour of developing the kids. In fact, he could start the season piling up points like crazy, then end it sitting aside so ’Sota can “develop” Gerald Green. Or, he could actually find his minutes being heavily reduced, until being dealt to a contender at the deadline; or, even, being waived with a month or so to go, so he can sign on somewhere else. Or, he could die in a nightclub gunfight. Given such unpredictability, count me as squirmy on Ricky's prospects.
77. MORRIS PETERSON, GF, Hornets.
Last year, Peterson was a flaccid fantasy pick: his minutes plummeted to 21 a game, and he received 11 DNP-CDs. Yet, when not bound to the bench, Mo Pete was ever-productive: hitting 106 threes, whilst posting per-40-minute averages of 16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. This year, suiting up for the eternally banged-up Hornets, Peterson could potentially average 40 minutes a game. Making him, one year on, the sweetest of fantasy sleepers.
78. T.J. FORD, PG, Raptors.
Whilst the TJ/Chuckles trade was always going to be a basketball/chemistry/karma windfall for the Raps, it wasn’t obvious how much Ford’s fantasy game would benefit. Leading the T-Dot playoff party charge, Ford went completely career-high mad, cranking out 14.0 PPG, 7.9 APG, and 1.4 SPG, whilst raising his FG% to an almost-passable 43.6. All whilst playing six less minutes a night than he did for the Bucks the year prior. This coming season, his tick could actually rise, as Sam Mitchell may actually realise that playing Ford and José Calderón together is quite the bright idea.
79. ANDREA BARGNANI, F, Raptors.
Cats who both block shots and bomb threes’re rare, and Bargnani showed he could do each productively in a way-up-and-down rookie turn, dropping 2.4 threes and swatting 1.3 shots per 40 minutes. In the 22 games he played over 30 minutes as a rookie, Bargnani posted 15.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 0.9 BPG, and 2.4 triples, and, with a rough year under his Italian leather belt, his numbers could even be better than that, for 07/08 in total. Installed as Toronto’s starting centre for the foreseeable future, the Italian Stallion should ride his way into genuine fantasy productivity this season.
80. STEPHON MARBURY, PG, Knicks.
Did you know that ‘In The Truck’ had three 40-point games last season? AKA: as many as Dirk, LeBron, and Melo combined? He also ended up with averages of 16.4 and 5.4, ripped a steal a night and hit 1.7 threes per. He’s a mere shadow of the Starbury that existed before Larry Brown ruined his career, but Marbury still holds fantasy value; especially since he’ll likely be draft-day poison in most leagues. Given he’s, y’know, morphed into the Tom Cruise of basketball.
81. ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKAS, C, Cavaliers.
To draft Big Z is to flog a dying horse. There’s still some life left in the beast. But only just.
82. RICHARD HAMILTON, SG, Pistons.
If you’re the kind of guy obsessed with ‘percentages’, drafting Hamilton might be a fine idea. For my tastes, he’s too one-dimensional to ever think of picking up.
83. RUDY GAY, GF, Grizzlies.
Relying on an athlete as laissez-faire as Big Gay Rudy is never a wise idea. But, his rookie stats ooze with potential. In the 32 games he played 30+, Gay went for 16.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, and 1.2 threes per night. If Marc Iavaroni pushes the tempo in Memphis, and Gay gets minutes as an undersized four, his stats could be that good all year; though his FG percentage (42.2%) seems unlikely to pick up no matter what situation he finds himself in.
84. SHANE BATTIER, SF, Rockets.
Fantasy basketball’s greatest across-the-boxscore blender since Doug Christie. That said, with all the new blood in Houston, will his numbers slide to the point of inconsequence? Should Luis Scola actually be in this draft position?
85. DORELL WRIGHT, SF, Heat.
Repeat after me: the 15 times Wright played 30+ minutes last year, he averaged 12.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.3 BPG. This year, with Jason Kapono and James Posey gone, he could play 30+ every single night.
86. MONTA ELLIS, G, Warriors.
Okay, he finished in the top ten in SPG last year, and shot a pretty robust 47.5% from the floor on his way to a super-breakout 16.5 PPG. But, isn’t anyone else worried that the Warriors have brought in Marco Belinelli and Troy Hudson? And might look to have Kelenna Azubuike in the rotation? And could play Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes on the wings more than up front? So, then, we must ask: Is Ellis still going to get 30+ minutes per? And will he lay off the bricklaying from distance, and Tony Parker his way to a higher ranking by constantly penetrating? Of course, if B-Diddy gets hurt, his value goes through the roof. Otherwise, colour me cautious.
87. RAJON RONDO, PG, Celtics.
Though it’s tough to pick a guy who probably won’t even average in double-figure points this early, Rondo should post some healthy assist numbers, and could quite easily lead the league in steals. But, whilst that’s the good stuff, know that there’re going to be a few 4, 2 and 4 type nights in there, too.
88. BORIS DIAW, FC, Suns.
Fitter, faster, stronger, less resembling a roasting gosling, Boris is back in the valley of the shadow of Nash, hoping to live down the letdown campaign he posted last-time out, in which his numbers took a tumble from the out-of-the-box MIP go-round that preceded such. With Grant Hill in town, it’s possible Boris could get even less burn than the 31 per he ran last season. But, it’s also likely that Diaw won’t be as lame in his court-time as he was in the second-half of last season.
89. JAMAL CRAWFORD, SG, Knicks.
If percentages’re your bag, you might want to steer clear of Jamal. But anyone in on high-volume jacking, points in bunches, and underrated assists should feel free to apply.
90. RAJA BELL, SG, Suns.
2.6 threes per game at 41.3%.
91. KYLE KORVER, SF, Sixers.
Whilst Kylie Kutcher cranked only an astonishingly meek 307 triple-tries last season (he hit 132, at 43.0%), he upped his scoring to a career-high 14.4 per, and shot a blistering 91.4% at the line. On a Sixers team forever in need of any kind of offensive spark, he could score even more this time around. And, hopefully his made threes’ll get back somewhere near the 205-a-season he averaged the two years prior to last.
92. BRAD MILLER, C, Kings.
Was it only two years ago Miller was a top 25 pick? Now, it’s possible all he has left is funny hair and DNPs.
93. CHRIS KAMAN, C, Clippers.
After a 12.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 52.3 FG% turn in 05/06, Kaman was a fantasy bust last season; his inconsistent output finishing up at 10.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG, and 45.1%. This year, with Elton Brand on the sidelines ’til death do us part, the Clippers are desperately in need of anything resembling a warm body inside, let alone a post presence. Kaman’s inevitable place as #1 interior option should, theoretically, get his numbers heading back towards what they were back when the Clips were a playoff squad.
94. NENÊ, FC, Nuggets.
Across the second half of last season, Nenê averaged 15 and 8, with a steal and a block per night thrown in. And shot 61.8% from the floor. It was the long-time-coming delivery on his unspeakable genetically-gifted promise; and such an unexpected explosion that it actually managed to make that idiotic $60mil contract seem less idiotic. But, should anyone bank on Nenê doing this for a whole year? Isn’t he more likely to get hurt than tear it up like that for an entire season?
95. DREW GOODEN, PF, Cavaliers.
So, as we inch ever-closer towards the season, it’s actually growing possible that Anderson Varejão won’t, thanks to Dan Fegan, be showing up to start the season. If that’s the case, Gooden could be on his way to a surprising fantasy campaign. With the arrival of Mike Brown’s bogged-down offence and the emergence of Varejão, Gooden’s numbers’ve dipped for the past couple campaigns; down from the 14.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG, and 81.0 FT% he posted in 04/05, to 10.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.4 BPG, and 69.5 FT% over the past two seasons. If the frizzy-hair’d Brasilian were to skip out on the year, Gooden could easily be a very productive, late-in-the-draft big-man; he still only 26, and still the second-most talented Cavalier.
96. TROY MURPHY, FC, Pacers.
Last year Murphy was completely out of his element amidst the frenzy of Nellie Ball, but he still found time to hit 58 threes at 40.0%. This year, playing for three-happy Jim O’Brien, as the Pacers’ starting centre, the southpaw’ll certainly up those deep-ball numbers. If he can get his RPG back anywhere near his career form (he averaged 10.4 over the previous two seasons before last year’s dreadful 6.0 per), Murphy could be a surprising fantasy factor.
97. AL HORFORD, FC, Hawks.
In four preseason contests thus far, the #3 pick has averaged 10.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 0.7 BPG, 50% FG, in 27 MPG. And this for a Hawks team already running their regular-season rotation. As the season progresses, it shouldn’t be hard for the incredibly-talented Horford to garner even more minutes; he only needing beat out offensive liability Smelldon ‘Downsy’ Williams and defensive liability Zaza Pachulia to get more burn. Horford’s court sense and deft passing skills should mean, when he does play, that he’ll avoid the turnover problems that mar so many rookie bigs. Drafting NBA freshmen is always a fantasy gamble; but Horford’s double-double potential and shotblocking skills offer more reward than other around-these-parts big-men like Chris Wilcox and Udonis Haslem.
98. GRANT HILL, SF, Suns.
Yeah, sure, he’s the injury risk, and, last year, his game seemed to decline to the point where he was just the (incredibly accurate) mid-range jump-shooter. But playing for Phoenix does strange things to men, and I’m guessing that more of Hill’s once-complete game will come out to shine. In two exhibition games in hideous purple-and-grey, Hill’s gone for 14.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and even hit two threes, as many as he made in each of his previous two seasons in Orlando.
99. CHUCKY ATKINS, Nuggets.
Last year, ever-chuckin’ Chucky had a very productive season when he was allowed to run the show for the Grizzz. In the 30 games in which he hit the floor for 30+, Chucky chucked up 17.5 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 2.3 threes at 38.6%. Part of this was playing for a Memphis team lacking offensive options, and part of this was Tony Barone’s run-and-gun fun. But, taking his bag to Denver won’t hurt such; and, should he step into Steve Blake’s vacated PG role, Chucky’ll have a green light to chuck it on a team in desperate need of shooting.
100. CHANNING FRYE, FC, Trailblazers.
Having burst into the NBA consciousness as a jump-shooting, pick-and-roll-running rookie deluxe, Frye tumbled into a sophomore slump in his second season; his numbers down across the board. Especially offensively: he dropping from 47.7% to 43.3% from the floor, on the way down from 12.3 to 9.5 PPG, even though he was getting more minutes. Possibly a victim of Isiah Thomas’s coaching limitations and/or the toxic sludge of MSG chemistry, Frye has been liberated, arriving on a Portland team in desperate need of able-bodied big-men. It would take only an injury to the fore’er-injured Joel Przybilla to have Frye clocking 35+ a night. His per-30-minute averages across his first two years go: 12.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.8 BPG. Finding himself in a more productivity-conducive environment, the still-young Frye could easily improve on those numbers, and is a nice end-of-draft type sleeper.
128. J.J. REDICK, G, Magic.
Do it. Just do it.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
J.J. Watch, the beat goes on.
Just when I thought I was out of the cult of Redick-as-sleeper, 19 points on 5/6 FG (including 3/3 from range) pull me back in. Just when I thought I was done with following the prospects of everyone's most belovable cute and cuddly widdle Dookie, I saw the light. JJ came to me in a vision when I was at my worst, my heart nearly burst, he laid down some mad verse, and it quenched my thirst.
"A lightning bolt strikes, I feel a sudden energy
Thunder clouds approach, I can't run from destiny
A tornado tears me down, but I will stand again
My life is a hurricane, but I'll weather it to the end."
Hear that, Stu Scott, you jive-talkin' pussy! His life is a hurricane! And, so, o!, how I'm excited about Redick the killer fantasy roughie once again. I mean, what other potential twelfth-round pick has a life that resembles an area of low atmospheric pressure near the Earth's surface?
"A lightning bolt strikes, I feel a sudden energy
Thunder clouds approach, I can't run from destiny
A tornado tears me down, but I will stand again
My life is a hurricane, but I'll weather it to the end."
Hear that, Stu Scott, you jive-talkin' pussy! His life is a hurricane! And, so, o!, how I'm excited about Redick the killer fantasy roughie once again. I mean, what other potential twelfth-round pick has a life that resembles an area of low atmospheric pressure near the Earth's surface?
Thursday, October 11, 2007
The Boxscore Watchin'!: The Sequel Edition.
More things we’ve learnt from the unspeakably exciting NBA Exhibition Season thus far, in which the past comes back to haunt us and the future continues to taunt us:
YI JIANLIAN PLAYS BASKETBALL FINE, DESPITE SLANTY EYES!
Remember, o friends, back in the long-distant days of summer 2002, back when America invading Iraq was still just a zany frat-prank scheme, and every basketball media mouthpiece with a soapbox to stand on came out and declared Yao Ming was going to be a colossal bust. Basing their opinions on, well, um, nothing-but-unspeakable-racism, pundits like Charles Barkley openly opined that the Rockets were totally crazy for passing up, um, Jay ‘I threw it all away’ Williams, to draft a guy who would end up averaging 25 and 10. Of course, even in those early days, as Yao proved himself to be both bonafide NBA player and not-mindless-communist-automaton, opinions changed. Shaquille O’Neal showed how far sentiment had swayed mid-way during Yao’s rookie year, with his sensitive, heartfelt, eloquent reflection on the experiences of all immigrating Asian-Americans: “ching-chong-yang-wah-ah-soh!”. In an eerie five-years-later sequel, Yi Jianlian has been already labeled the bust to end all busts by so many notable critics, most of whom haven’t, like, seen him play. Or, if so, have seen him only work out against the immortal Chair. Yet, anyone who watched, say, the 2006 World Championships, would know that Yi, whatever his age, certainly has enough potential to wager a draft-pick on. Likely to split time with Chuckles Villanueva this coming year, Yi will be presented with an opportunity to play, and an opportunity to prove all those draft doubters wrong pretty early in his career. Today, in his second-ever run in anything remotely resembling an NBA-styled game, Yi had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and showed his three-point range. He actually seems like he could be, y’know, pretty good. Even though he’s Chinese.
BRAD MILLER, PARTYING LIKE IT’S 1999!
Proving that all… what’s the right euphemism… urban fashion-trends eventually end up on crackers from Middle America, Brad Miller has busted out the headband-and-cornrow combo that would’ve made him totally happening in the AAU scene back in ’99. If Miller were physically able to complete an alley-oop, it mightn’t even be out of the question for him to do some righteous head-pounding. Sacto fans are now just hoping that Miller’s knees don’t go the same way of his newly-adopted style icon, Darius Miles.
PEJA STOJAKOVIC IS BACK, HAS BAD BACK!
Still lurking at the tacked-on end to most fantasy dorks’ pre-draft rankifying, Peja Stojakovic is doing his best to confuse people. As in: he’s played and started both Hornets games, showing more resiliency than he did in the 2006 Playoffs. In such, he’s piled up 44 combined minutes in back-to-back (Yeah! Yeah! And you know that!) nights, and, in such, the swarthy Serb has cranked up 15 three-pointers. Even if his weird across-the-face stroke has yet to get tighten’d back up. Translation: 4/15. Whilst such struggles could easily be excused as meaningless numbers from meaningless preseason warm-ups, it’s hard not to be a little wary of Peja, given his age (30), health, injury possibilities, and recent stat-slipping tendencies. As it stands, I’ve got him at #65 on my draft-board. It’s the definition of fence-sitting: from there, he'll likely play as either boon or bust. Health pending.
PASTY REDHEADS IN FOREST GREEN OUTFITS WITH WEIRD PLASTIC FACEMASKS STRAPPED TO THEIR (RED) HEADS ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLY ATTRACTIVE!
We haven’t actually learnt this, but, hey, this is a preseason fantasy column, so allow me to forecast into the future. When I heard the news “Luke Ridnour has the broken beak! It was like all smashed up by that crazy dude who did MJ’s ribs!”, my first thought was: soon, my pretties, soon, Lil’ Lukey will be suiting up in the facemask. Meaning, he will be rekindling memories of those glorious April days of the ought-six, back when Ramblin’ Bobby Swift donned the creepy plastic and looked even more awkward than normal for a handful of highly arousing games. Ladies, the look will soon be back en vogue. Take heed.
J.J. WATCH, PART DEUX!
Maybe this is where I clarify: JJ Redick truly is a deluxe fantasy sleeper. Crank those stats, work those numbers, see how it all pans out. Today, with its 19 points and 5/8 threes, is more grist for such a statistical mill. But he is, when you get down to it, JJ Redick. No bandage can cover his scars. It’s hard living life behind invisible bars.
JUST IN CASE YOU MISSED IT LAST YEAR: THE ATLANTA HAWKS, SUMMER PICK-UP BALL PRIMED!
The unstoppable Hawks juggernaut rolled to 2-0 on the exhibition slate with an overtime squeaker against a Miami Heat team featuring a couple of actual NBA players actually playing (including Shaq!). Behind the efforts of their six recent lottery selections —from Josh Childress’s hair to Acie Law’s knuckleball— the newly-blue ATL machine pulled it out over a Heat squad that wore a 22/12 night from Udonis Haslem and 6 blocks by my soon-to-be fantasy factor Dorell Wright. Where the Heat still look to be sorting the wheat (Brian Chase) from the chaff (Antoine Walker), pawing through the refuse to see who’ll be riding their bench this season, the Hawks’re on song; playing their regulars large (Josh Smith, 34 minzzz) and playing to win. Which, of course, may be the problem. Last year, despite the sinking feeling that came whenever guaranteed-#5-pick Smelldon ‘Downsy’ Williams subbed into the game instead of Brandon ROY, the Yardbirds soared to a 6-3 preseason mark, and took that winning form into the actual season, jumping out of the gates a Zazatastic 4-1. Of course, going 5-20 over the next two months dampened a little of that early-season optimism. But not so much that they’re not going to turn the trick again this year. Exhibition foes, cower in fear! The Mighty Ducks of Atlanta are here!
YI JIANLIAN PLAYS BASKETBALL FINE, DESPITE SLANTY EYES!
Remember, o friends, back in the long-distant days of summer 2002, back when America invading Iraq was still just a zany frat-prank scheme, and every basketball media mouthpiece with a soapbox to stand on came out and declared Yao Ming was going to be a colossal bust. Basing their opinions on, well, um, nothing-but-unspeakable-racism, pundits like Charles Barkley openly opined that the Rockets were totally crazy for passing up, um, Jay ‘I threw it all away’ Williams, to draft a guy who would end up averaging 25 and 10. Of course, even in those early days, as Yao proved himself to be both bonafide NBA player and not-mindless-communist-automaton, opinions changed. Shaquille O’Neal showed how far sentiment had swayed mid-way during Yao’s rookie year, with his sensitive, heartfelt, eloquent reflection on the experiences of all immigrating Asian-Americans: “ching-chong-yang-wah-ah-soh!”. In an eerie five-years-later sequel, Yi Jianlian has been already labeled the bust to end all busts by so many notable critics, most of whom haven’t, like, seen him play. Or, if so, have seen him only work out against the immortal Chair. Yet, anyone who watched, say, the 2006 World Championships, would know that Yi, whatever his age, certainly has enough potential to wager a draft-pick on. Likely to split time with Chuckles Villanueva this coming year, Yi will be presented with an opportunity to play, and an opportunity to prove all those draft doubters wrong pretty early in his career. Today, in his second-ever run in anything remotely resembling an NBA-styled game, Yi had 12 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and showed his three-point range. He actually seems like he could be, y’know, pretty good. Even though he’s Chinese.
BRAD MILLER, PARTYING LIKE IT’S 1999!
Proving that all… what’s the right euphemism… urban fashion-trends eventually end up on crackers from Middle America, Brad Miller has busted out the headband-and-cornrow combo that would’ve made him totally happening in the AAU scene back in ’99. If Miller were physically able to complete an alley-oop, it mightn’t even be out of the question for him to do some righteous head-pounding. Sacto fans are now just hoping that Miller’s knees don’t go the same way of his newly-adopted style icon, Darius Miles.
PEJA STOJAKOVIC IS BACK, HAS BAD BACK!
Still lurking at the tacked-on end to most fantasy dorks’ pre-draft rankifying, Peja Stojakovic is doing his best to confuse people. As in: he’s played and started both Hornets games, showing more resiliency than he did in the 2006 Playoffs. In such, he’s piled up 44 combined minutes in back-to-back (Yeah! Yeah! And you know that!) nights, and, in such, the swarthy Serb has cranked up 15 three-pointers. Even if his weird across-the-face stroke has yet to get tighten’d back up. Translation: 4/15. Whilst such struggles could easily be excused as meaningless numbers from meaningless preseason warm-ups, it’s hard not to be a little wary of Peja, given his age (30), health, injury possibilities, and recent stat-slipping tendencies. As it stands, I’ve got him at #65 on my draft-board. It’s the definition of fence-sitting: from there, he'll likely play as either boon or bust. Health pending.
PASTY REDHEADS IN FOREST GREEN OUTFITS WITH WEIRD PLASTIC FACEMASKS STRAPPED TO THEIR (RED) HEADS ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLY ATTRACTIVE!
We haven’t actually learnt this, but, hey, this is a preseason fantasy column, so allow me to forecast into the future. When I heard the news “Luke Ridnour has the broken beak! It was like all smashed up by that crazy dude who did MJ’s ribs!”, my first thought was: soon, my pretties, soon, Lil’ Lukey will be suiting up in the facemask. Meaning, he will be rekindling memories of those glorious April days of the ought-six, back when Ramblin’ Bobby Swift donned the creepy plastic and looked even more awkward than normal for a handful of highly arousing games. Ladies, the look will soon be back en vogue. Take heed.
J.J. WATCH, PART DEUX!
Maybe this is where I clarify: JJ Redick truly is a deluxe fantasy sleeper. Crank those stats, work those numbers, see how it all pans out. Today, with its 19 points and 5/8 threes, is more grist for such a statistical mill. But he is, when you get down to it, JJ Redick. No bandage can cover his scars. It’s hard living life behind invisible bars.
JUST IN CASE YOU MISSED IT LAST YEAR: THE ATLANTA HAWKS, SUMMER PICK-UP BALL PRIMED!
The unstoppable Hawks juggernaut rolled to 2-0 on the exhibition slate with an overtime squeaker against a Miami Heat team featuring a couple of actual NBA players actually playing (including Shaq!). Behind the efforts of their six recent lottery selections —from Josh Childress’s hair to Acie Law’s knuckleball— the newly-blue ATL machine pulled it out over a Heat squad that wore a 22/12 night from Udonis Haslem and 6 blocks by my soon-to-be fantasy factor Dorell Wright. Where the Heat still look to be sorting the wheat (Brian Chase) from the chaff (Antoine Walker), pawing through the refuse to see who’ll be riding their bench this season, the Hawks’re on song; playing their regulars large (Josh Smith, 34 minzzz) and playing to win. Which, of course, may be the problem. Last year, despite the sinking feeling that came whenever guaranteed-#5-pick Smelldon ‘Downsy’ Williams subbed into the game instead of Brandon ROY, the Yardbirds soared to a 6-3 preseason mark, and took that winning form into the actual season, jumping out of the gates a Zazatastic 4-1. Of course, going 5-20 over the next two months dampened a little of that early-season optimism. But not so much that they’re not going to turn the trick again this year. Exhibition foes, cower in fear! The Mighty Ducks of Atlanta are here!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)