Friday, October 5, 2007

Bounce-Back Candidates.

You drafted them last year, they honked it up, now you hate them. You steered clear of them last year, poured scorn on your fellow GMs who picked them, and have vowed never to go there. They weren’t simple injury-victims, but pure under-performers, sometimes drastically. Their names’re now poison, their games now in question. They’re former fantasy contributors who’ve earned the rep as statsheet underachievers. But, my dearest fantasy dorks, their tainted reputation could be your draft-day blessing. Here’s a list of 06/07 strugglers who could be better-than-expected in the coming season:

RAYMOND FELTON, Bobcats.
Plenty of GMs got on Ray-Ray early last year, predicting the big breakout sophomore season for the Tarheel PG. But, whilst peers like Monta Ellis and Deron Williams took hold of greater second-year opportunities and turned in evolutionary seasons, Felton was disappointing. Technically, he’s not a ‘bounce back’ player, because last year he posted career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, et al. But after a second-year leap was expected, Felton actually did a lot of things worse. Even though he posted plenty of career-highs, when taken on a per-minute rate, his scoring, rebounding, and steals were all down in his second year. His turnovers were way up, any way you look at it: jumping from 2.3 to 3.0; almost negating his extra passing productivity (7.0 APG) that came from spending more time quarterbacking the club. But, most painfully, his FG% and 3PFG% both dropped to sinking new depths. Many thought, going into last year, that Felton’s shooting struggles were, in part, the problems of an overmatch’d rookie; but his 06/07 numbers —38.4 from the floor, 30.0 from deep— were atrocious. Now that we’ve established Felton as having been worse in his second year, thinking of him as a ‘bounce back’ guy makes more sense. And coming into this season, Felton has plenty of good karma working for him. Mostly: Brevin Knight has, finally!, left town, meaning Felton'll spend far less time looking over his shoulder. Maybe Brittle Brevin only started 25 games last year, but he was always there. And not merely as some perceived threat to Felton’s job, but as a cat who, more often than not, played alongside Felton, pushing the bigger, younger baller to the two-guard spot. True to such, Felton’s career numbers with/without Knight in the lineup are like night and day: 15.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 8.6 APG in the games BK missed, compared to 11.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 5.2 APG with. Whilst much of this is to do with the extra burn (38.3 MPG to 30.9), on a per-minute basis, whilst Felton’s rebounds are slightly down, his points are a shade better, and his assists soar. Finally, now, installed as a full-time point-guard, Felton could easily average 8+ APG on the year in 07/08, something only five players (Nash, Deron, Kidd, Paul, B-Diddy) did in the league last year. Other optimistic signs for this year are more circumstantial than statistical: Sam Vincent is promising an up-tempo offence, which would only generate more offensive opportunities, and the new coach has been, reportedly, cajoling his young PG to penetrate more. Which should make for a higher FG%, and more free-throw opportunities for the 80% shooter. Things feel good with Felton —again!— going into the season. Hopefully, this year, he can capitalise on his opportunities, and actually make his fantasy owners happy.

RICHARD JEFFERSON, Nets.
Though his fantasy game never really has lived up to its rep, I was astonished to see Richard Jefferson’s default Yahoo! ranking introduced at #153 for this coming season, behind such fantasy luminaries as Chris Duhon, Rasho Nesterovic, Anthony Parker, and Damien Wilkins, and a host of guys whose ranking got a boost last year, but will tumble this year as their minutes are sliced (Jarrett Jack, Chuck Hayes, Ime Udoka, Mikki Moore). True, Jefferson was nowhere near his former self in 06/07, his PPG, RPG, APG, FG%, and especially FT% all on the wane. But, Jefferson spent the year battling injuries; with two lengthy IL stretches limiting him to 55 banged-up games on the season. However, if you look at how Jefferson came back from injuries, and there’re good signs on the horizon. Over the last 19 games of last season, Jefferson averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG and, impressively, 28/71 3PG at 39.4%. Whilst I’m not sold on a return to the fantasy elite for RJ, you can expect those numbers for an entire season, with Jefferson’s percentages from the floor and the charity-stripe hopefully back to their career norms. Whilst it’s not star-making stuff, it certainly sounds like a lot more than you’re going to get from Juan Dixon this season; and Jefferson should easily justify being a fifth-round selection.

CHRIS KAMAN, Clippers.
The K-Monster established himself as a rock-solid, bonafide centre in his third pro campaign in 05/06; posting averages of 12.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 52.3% from the floor. Having shown steady improvements in each season, the thinking on Kaman going into last season was that he was a solid middle-round C selection, with potential for growth. The Clippers, fresh off of almost landing in the Conference Finals, obviously agreed, inking him to a 5-year, $55mil contract extension before the season. Yet, Kaman took a nosedive; his numbers dropping back to 10.1 PPG and 7.8 RPG, with his percentages also taking a hit (although, his blocked shots rose from 1.4 to 1.6). Coach Dunleavy seemed to lose confidence in Kaman, and Kaman lost confidence in himself; the Kamaniac ending up playing 4 MPG less, and being much more erratic than reliable. This year, with Elton Brand done for the foreseeable future, and no real backup centre of note, Kaman is guaranteed to get minutes. PF court-time seems to be, at this stage, totally up for grabs between Ruben Patterson, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton, and Josh Powell; all of whom would probably be better suited to minutes at the SF, and none of whom seem like potential answers as a 5. So, Kaman is going to play. And, with Brand out, he’ll also shuffle up the offensive totem-pole. Corey Maggette is clearly going to be the #1 option, but guys #2 and #3 are Sam Cassell, the perennially-injured playmaker, and the just-turned-32-year-old Cuttino Mobley, who history says will —like Glen Rice, Mitch Richmond, Latrell Sprewell et al— soon be on his way to being washed up. So, Kaman has the potential for greater minutes, and greater responsibility. It wouldn’t be unimaginable for Captain Caveman to bump his numbers back towards 13 and 10. If he could block close to 2 shots per game, too, whilst getting his shooting back above 50%, Kaman would have great value as a centre. And, after last year’s swandive, you can probably claim him in the 8th round.

TROY MURPHY, Pacers.
Yeah, another white centre. Murphy got lost last year in the Don Nelson revolution; which turned him from rebounding rock into chronically inconsistent tease. By the time he was shipped to Indiana in a dud deadline deal, Murphy was having a year from hell. Once suiting up for the Pacers, Murphy got only marginally better; he seemingly never winning the favour of soon-to-be-axed coach Rick Carlisle. On the year, the one-time double-double machine averaged a pathetic 6.0 RPG; making Murphy a complete and utter disaster for those who drafted him on the promise of plentiful rebounds in Nellie’s stat-happy system. This year, Murphy could turn things around. Reports are that he’s spent the off-season adding muscle to his frame, after the previous summer found him shedding weight in a vain attempt to conform to Nelson’s aspirations for him. Which should help when it comes to banging inside. The full-time switch to a slower-pace will also help in that regard. But, most importantly, Murphy has a coach, Jim O’Brien, who might be perfect for utilising his talents. O’Brien has a history of letting his teams fly from long-range; he the guy who let Antoine Walker chuck with impunity, and the one who turned a rookie called Kyle Korver into a deluxe fantasy specialist. Lacking three-point threats on the wings —where Marquis Daniels is a perpetual driver, Mike Dunleavy a struggler, and Danny Granger an accurate if not overwhelming bomber— O’Brien may choose to use Murphy as a matchup nightmare; playing him at the 5, then letting him launch from long-range. Murphy has made a handy 58 threes in each of the last two seasons; but last year saw his percentage jump from 32% to 40%. If O’Brien gives him the greenlight, it wouldn’t be too great a stretch to imagine Murphy hitting 100 3PFG. If he can grab somewhere north of 8 RPG —not a huge stretch given he’s posted three double-double seasons in his career— Murphy could be an intriguing later-round pick. He’s currently going in the 10th round of many drafts, but his deep-range potential and C eligibility make him much more intriguing than more one-dimensional rebounders like Udonis Haslem and Chris Wilcox.

MORRIS PETERSON, Hornets.
Completely falling out of favour with Sam Mitchell last season in the T-Dot, Peterson went from under-the-radar fantasy stud —he averaged 16.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and hit 177 3PFG at 39.5% in 05/06— to a guy so inconsistent he couldn’t justify a place on any fantasy roster. Given he’d been pegged as a solid third-round pick, Peterson was the kind of player who ruined fantasy campaigns. Yet, even in his ‘lost season’ —when his minutes plummeted to 21 a game, and he received 11 DNP-CDs— Peterson still found time to hit 106 threes, and post per-40-minute averages of 16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. Meaning, more than any other player on this list, Peterson could be due the mother of all bounce-back seasons. The smooth southpaw is essentially walking into the role vacated by Desmond Mason; who, given the Hornets' dearth of wing players and numerous injuries, played 34 minutes each night last season. Whilst a return from Peja Stojakovic could curb Mo-Pete’s tick, banking on the Serbian sniper’s health, or that of backup combo-guard Bobby Jackson, is a far larger risk than betting on Peterson, a veritable NBA iron-man. And, with Devin Brown recently inked by the Cavs, the Hornets are going into the season with the same sort of numbers on the wings as last season. I can’t see how Peterson won’t start at the SG, and won’t average at least 30 MPG. And if Peja isn’t good to go, or breaks down again, Mo Pete could be called on to play close to 40 minutes every night. 16, 5, and 200 threes shouldn’t be out of the question. And from a potential 9th-rounder, that’s golden.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

all the karma in the world isn't going to turn ray felton into a good shooter. agree that he won't be quite as awful this year, but i can't see him doing enough otherwise to overcome those shooting %s.