Breakout Performers.

Forget ‘sleepers’, the below guys are guaranteed to be far more productive than they were last year. As any good Fantasy GM knows, the key contributing factor in any player’s potential output —other than whether they can actually, y’know, play— is opportunity. Per-minute averages mean little if someone doesn’t get on the court; and recent years have found plenty of highly-talented guys buried deep on benches (Tyrus Thomas, James Singleton et al), all whilst tools like Smush Parker become solid fantasy contributors based solely on the fact that their coach, for reasons known only to he, is playing them major minutes. All of these cats will be blessed with plenty of minutes in the coming year; they handed golden opportunities to step right up for the 07/08 campaign.

LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE, Trailblazers.
Zach Randolph’s joined Eddy Curry in New York for a frightening frontcourt redux of the Starbury/Stevie backcourt (Isiah apparently having not yet learnt that bringing in a borderline all-star with questionable motivational issues to play alongside another borderline all-star with questionable motivational issues whose skill-set he duplicates exactly is a bad idea). Greg Oden, bless his 100-year-old soul, is at home playing video-games. And Raef LaFrentz, the old Beaker, is coming off a 27-game, 3.7 PPG campaign. So, my friends, suddenly someone is going to get a whole heap of interior touches for those erstwhile Bail-raisers. Whilst Channing Frye looms as an intriguing end-of-the-draft sleeper, LaMarcus Aldridge is the guy who’s definitely going to get the mighty stat-bump this season. Brandon Roy could’ve easily earned pride-of-place on this list, for he’ll likely be doing 20/5/5 as the Blazers’ main man; but he’s already ranked #36 overall (ahead of Joe Johnson, for example), and had a very productive rookie campaign, so the word’s is already out on the ROY. Aldridge is another story. His rookie totals aren’t up to much; he only posted 9 and 5 on his debut trip around the league. But in 14 games as a starter through the whole of March, LaMarcus and his crazy-high release-point clocked in for nightly totals of 15.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 1.7 BPG, at 55.5% from the floor. With a year under his belt, and the trust of Nate McMillan earned, the lanky Longhorn could easily duplicate those numbers across an entire season. And, in the absence of Oden, it’s conceivable that his averages could actually end up even better. Whilst Aldridge has yet to, in either college or the pros, show any semblance of durability, at the moment you can take a flyer on this top-50-potential C in as late as the 8th round.

RANDY FOYE, Timberwolves.
The Mike James for Juwan Howard trade sent out one message loud-and-clear: Kevin McHale is an atrocious GM. Oh, wait, and another: the T-Pups are hitching their wagon to Randy Foye’s budding star. Whilst the new-look Minnesota lineup is overloaded on the wings, and filled with camp-battles up front, all Foye need do to claim the starting PG job is beat out Bassy ‘playing-my-way-to-Spain’ Telfair. Whilst his 10/3/3 rookie turn hardly turned heads —especially when coupled with 1.9 TO per night— it should be noted that at no point of the season did he have a defined role; be that full-time point-guard and/or instant-offence off the bench. Even his post All-Star break numbers, those so often the key to young guys primed for a breakout, aren’t much better than his season totals: 11.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 1.1 3PFG in 25 MPG. But, the games in which Foye played over 30 minutes, his numbers were more robust: 15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, and 1.3 3PFG. And, for a guy who shot 43.3% for the year, his final 16 games show an interesting FG% return: 50.0% exactly. Whilst Foye’s numbers don’t project out to superstardom, there is plenty of reason for optimism: the clearing-out of James and Troy Hudson, the youth movement that places Foye and Al Jefferson as Minnesota’s key young pieces, and the simple fact that Foye is entering his second season, the year in which almost all ballers make a quantum leap in terms of production. With the added minutes and responsibilities coming his way in the Twin Cities this season, Foye will likely average somewhere upwards of 15 PPG; a nice number for a guy currently ranked at #138 on the Yahoo! game. But his real value will come if Foye can make his assist/turnover ratio something a little less hideous than 1.52, can hit well over 100 threes, and can continually get to the line, where his 85.4% holds great value. If he does all the above, Foye’ll make a lot of fantasy owners happy.

COREY MAGGETTE, Clippers.
Corey Maggette didn’t exactly have an off-year last time out. He played in 75 games, highest since his rookie season. He averaged 17 PPG, 6 RPG, and continued to camp out at the charity stripe, his 519 FTM the 3rd-highest total in the entire league (behind only Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas). Yet, for much of the year, Maggette was a question-mark. Seemingly on the outer with Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy, the randy Dookie was reduced to openly wondering why he’d been consigned to a 6th-man role, and to ‘demanding’ unlikely-to-be-granted trade requests. But once Dum-Dum-leavy’s lightbulb finally went off, and he realised that Maggette was his second-best player —making him a permanent starter following the All-Star break— Are You Ready For Maggette? put up some seriously impressive numbers. In 28 post-ASG appearances, all but one of them starts, the SF hung up 20.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, and made an ungodly 217 FTM at 79.7%. Long known as a free-throw machine, Maggette hit 7.7 FTM per night over that stretch; an average that would’ve been 4th-best on the whole year (trailing Bryant, Arenas, and Dwyane Wade). With Elton Brand due to miss a monster portion of the season —even optimistic progress reports have him down as a March returnee— Maggette goes from being the Clippers’ 6th-man, as he started last season, to being their #1 guy. Without Brand on hand, Maggette will clearly be the first option on offence for the Clippers; his ability to live at the free-throw line almost as good as dumping it down to a low-post bruiser. And, without Brand in the post —and no obvious replacement on hand to fill in at the four— it’s possible that the Clippers will push the pace this year; which should also contribute to Maggette getting plentiful opportunities. At worst, you’d imagine he’s heading for numbers very similar to his 04/05 campaign: 22 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 APG, 1 SPG, and 8 FTM each night. But, minus the big guy in the middle, it’s possible Maggette could do even more. Yet, going into camp, Yahoo! has him ranked #106 in the game. Needless to say, if you’re drafting soon, get on it.

RAJON RONDO, Celtics.
Yeah, so everyone knows it already. Rondo is on the way up. When your franchise trades 8 players away to get two, anyone left is going to get more minutes. Even if the two guys brought in are Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. As the only legit PG on the Celtics roster, Rondo looks to be the most obvious recipient of the wheeling-and-dealing; he looking to be a guy who makes the most of opportunities created when trading for a superstar. When Tracy McGrady arrived in Houston, Jimmy Jackson stepped into the cavernous opening and had one great fantasy campaign. When Miami cleared out a crew of dudes in a deal for Shaq, former benchwarmers like Udonis Haslem, Damon Jones, and Rasual Butler made the most of the suddenly-available tick. And Rondo, despite his detractors, is set to do the same this year. Whilst Eddie House —who’s, shhhh!, a fantasy super-sleeper no one’s yet warmed to— and Tony Allen will also get minutes at whatever resembles the ‘one’ in Boston’s new-world order, Rondo has been anointed most likely. Could we pencil him in for 30 minutes a night? Let’s. So, what happened in the 25 contests in which Rondo played at least 30 minutes last season? 10.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 6.5 APG, and 2.6 SPG, that’s what. And, for a guy who can’t shoot a lick, his 45.4% is Diplo mad decent; a far better clip than Chris Paul, TJ Ford, Antonio Daniels, Carlos Arroyo, Speedy Claxton, and other small, deep-ball-challenged PGs could muster. Although many would proffer the opinion that playing alongside three deluxe studs like Garnett, Allen, and Pierce will curb Rondo’s output, it’s just as likely that the contrary will be true; and the presence of those three will allow Rondo to play in a more efficient, focused fashion than last season. With Garnett and Kendrick Perkins on the back-lines, Rondo will be free to be aggressive on the defensive end. Meaning, he could possibly post 2.5 steals every night. Where would those numbers have placed him, league-wide, if delivered last season? First. With daylight second. As it was, Rondo ranked 8th in the league in steals despite playing only 23 minutes a game and starting only 25 contests. At the very least, Rondo will pay value as a SPG specialist next year; but his triple-double potential could deliver so much more.

DORELL WRIGHT, Heat.
Time and again, Pat Riley’s shown that, as coach, he’ll take a washed-up veteran over a young stud any time he can; even if that veteran’s just signed mid-season, and is dead (Eddie Jones), dying (Kendall Gill), or just plain disinterested (Rod Strickland). This year, with the free-agent departures of Jason Kapono and James Posey, Riles finally has to start his young stud-in-waiting; the Heat’s other DW a rangy, slashing, defensively-minded swingman who boards and blocks shots like a big-man. Well, either that or Pat’ll play Penny Hardaway. But, my money’s on Riley finally waking up to his wondrously-talented wing, no matter what history says. When given the opportunity to play major minutes for the geriatric Florida Retirees last season, Wright showed enough stuff to go beyond flashes of potential. In an 18-game stretch as starter through December, Wright averaged 8.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.1 APG, and 1.0 BPG, even though Riley kept yanking his minutes around. Wright’s last game as a starter in that early-season run —and, unbelievably, he’d only get to start one more game for the entire year— was unspeakably monstrous: 21 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, and 6 blocks. Whilst it’d be pure pipedreamery to expect nightly totals like that, the fact that Wright’s due to receive major minutes on the wings —Daequan Cook is not ready for NBA court-time, and Antoine Walker seems the only other option at SF— means he’s due to become a productive fantasy player. The 15 times he played over 30 minutes last season, he averaged 12.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.3 BPG. Even more promisingly, in the games in which he was on court for 30+, Wright shot the ball at 51.7% from the floor; compared to his season average of 44.5%. With the lack of options on the wings, and Dwyane Wade seemingly set to miss the first couple weeks of the season, it’s possible Wright will have the chance to establish himself as a genuine starter. If he can get 30 minutes a night, the above averages are possible. At this stage, 11 and 7 with a steal and a block per game seems like all you could expect; those certainly decent stats for a guy you could probably get on a late-round flyer. But, given how young (still just 21!) and talented he is, the sky is really the limit for Wright. Depending, of course, on whether Riley actually deigns to give him the burn he deserves.