Sunday, October 14, 2007

Fantasy Rankification!: 51-100.

Given this is, in theory, the dear-diary devoted to the sexual-fantasy basketball boxscore scouring, I thought it might be time to set aside the JJ-Redick-Poetry-Nights and/or Searing-Analysis-Of-Racial-Biases and do something so fantasy-friendly as rank up a top 100. I mean, after all, I have a draft of my own looming this coming Sunday; perhaps it's time to lay things out. If only for m'self. So, here goes the second-half of the hundy; with the big boys on their way sometime soonlike.

51. BEN GORDON, G, Bulls.
Last year was an evolutionary one for Gordon. The one-time one-dimensional scorer became a really amazing one-dimensional scorer, exploding for 21.4 PPG, upping his FG% to 45.5, and adding career-highs in rebounds and assists to boot. Oh, and his 380 FTM —up from 211 the year prior— were good for 19th in the league; ahead of stud big-men like Brand and Duncan. The one-time threes specialist has upped his game to the point where he’s a legitimate fantasy force; especially given the fact that he never misses a game.

52. LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE, FC, Trailblazers.
Aldridge in the ought-eight is gonna be well Mexico. The Bail-raisers have the cavernous hole in the interior, and this new-millennial Robert Parish will be lofting high-release jumpers aplenty as Paul Allen’s PDX red-pyjama party goes searching for any kind of offence not named Brandon Roy. In 14 March starts, Aldridge gave us a taste of this season to come: 15.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 1.7 BPG, at 55.5% from the floor. That was when Zach Randolph was still in town, too. As the #1 interior option, the sky’s really the limit for LaMarcus; even if he’s still asterisk’d as potential injury risk.

53. KEVIN DURANT, GF, Sonics.
It’s impossible to know what Durant’s capable of as an NBA rookie, though Carmelo’s first-year numbers could be a guide: 21.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 42.6 FG%, 3.0 TPG. Likely to struggle with shooting numbers and turnovers early, anyone picking Durant is doing so on the potential that, once he gets adjusted to the NBA, his numbers in the new year are going to be phenomenal. At this stage, it’s hard to pick Durant much higher than this, but if he can consistently hit the three, and if the Sonics play at an offensively-friendly pace, KD could easily be climbing the fantasy rankings.

54. MIKE BIBBY, PG, Kings.
Playing though the pain of an injured hand in the season’s early days, the artist formerly known as stud PG Mike Bibby honked it up mighty. In the 25 Kings kontests before the calendar hit Jesus’s birthday jamboree, Bibby posted numbers that’d make Santa Claus himself vomit with rage: 16.3 PPG, 35.1 FG%, 25.1 3PT%, 1.2 3PT, 2.7 TO. Post-Boxing Day, Bibby righted that ship, going, for the rest of the way: 17.4 PPG, 42.8 FG%, 39.8 3PT%, 2.4 3P, 2.3 TO; all whilst not missing a game. Yet, Bibby’s assists, rebounds, and steals all declined; on the whole year, but also as the season progressed, nearly negating the improved shooting. Whilst he still has tremendous value as a deep man, the days of Bibby as a #1 PG seem long hosed.

55. TONY PARKER, PG, Spurs.
Whilst the mighty monobrow was, for so long, fantasy poison due to his meagre assist numbers and non-existent range, his evolution into percentage maestro putting up robust scoring numbers has made him a solid second-tier performer. But, personally, I could never draft someone whose incredibly creepy, dwarfish, fame-whoring wife simply must be interviewed in the middle of every Spurs game.

56. ANDREI KIRILENKO, F, Jazz.
Once rated a top-10 fantasy force, Kirilenko is now a shot-blocker deluxe who offers little of anything else, especially reliability. If he ever got traded to some running team that played him as a freelancing four —like, oh, say, Phoenix— AK47’s fantasy rank would go through the roof. As of now, in Utah, he holds more ‘specialist’ value.

57. RASHEED WALLACE, FC, Pistons.
At a freshly-turned 33, Rasheed Wallace is certainly starting to slow; his scoring falling from 15.1 to 12.4 PPG last season, the lowest it’s been since Sheed’s rookie campaign (for the Bullets!). Yet, as long as he hits 1.4 threes, rips 1.0 steals, and blocks 1.6 shots, the grumpy old man will hold fantasy value way beyond his points/rebounds.

58. DAVID WEST, PF, Hornets.
I get the feeling that very few casual NBA fans would even know who David West was, let alone that he’s been the NOOKies' leading scorer for the past two seasons. Last year, once healthy, West upped his output to 18.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG, and, down the stretch, as the Hornets battled to stay in playoff contention, he killed it for 24.8 PPG and 8.1 RPG over the final 10 contests. Whilst West is what he is —a jumpshooting big-man— his anonymity could lead him to be undervalued in your league.

59. RON ARTEST, SF, Kings.
If Coach Bill Fuller really does run him at the PF, Artest will be a load both on the court and in the boxscore. But can any GM really gamble on Ron-Ron any earlier than this? Could anyone feel comfortable banking their fantasy season on someone so determinedly insane? Unless, of course, the Maloofs’re in your league?

60. MEHMET OKUR, FC, Jazz.
So, whilst his massive spike in three-pointers (129 on the year) turned the Fat Turk and his amusing facial-hair into one of basketball’s more unlikely All-Star stories, did anyone else notice that his rebounds dropped from 9.1 to 7.2? And his blocks from 0.9 to 0.5? And his FTM from 4.3 to 3.7? Whilst such may seem like statistical quibbling, I’m wondering how far Okur is from being naught but a deep-ball specialist.

61. MO WILLIAMS, PG, Bucks.
Mo Will was one of the breakout performers of last season; averaging across-the-board career-highs of 17.1 PPG, an astonishing 4.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Whilst his three-point stroke ain’t so tight (34.7%) and his turnovers are downright frightening (3.0), there’s plenty to like about one of the NBA’s more promising, under-the-radar young PGs.

62. RAYMOND FELTON, G, Bobcats.
So, by now we’ve come to know that the North Carolina scouting report —Felton: can’t shoot— is pretty accurate (38.4 FG%, 33.0 3PT%). But with the Bobcats promising some sort of uptempo, defensively-disinterested season, Felton’s shooting numbers could easily rise by dint of transition baskets and increased penetration. Most importantly, I’d be expecting his assist numbers to hit 8 per this season; ensconcing him amongst the ever-rarified APG elite, and making him a viable fantasy PG play.

63. MANU GINOBILI, SG, Spurs.
I know his across-the-board numbers end up giving him the solid ranking, but I find it eternally hard to be excited about the prospect of drafting a guy who has a hypnotoad baldspot, flops more than a Fantastic Four film, and plays for a dreary team from one of North America’s most unspeakably awful cities. Seriously, if they were the Austin Spurs, they’d be roughly 500 times less reprehensible.

64. RICHARD JEFFERSON, SF, Nets.
Whilst RJ’s numbers took an alarming tumble last year, especially in its early going, the third-best player from Arizona finished strong, once he’d shaken off the injuries. Over the last 19 games, Jefferson averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG and, impressively, hit 28/71 threes at 39.4%. This year, the hope is he's good to go with those for the whole time.

65. SAMUEL DALEMBERT, C, Sixers.
Did anyone notice that Dalembert posted clear career-highs in points (10.7), rebounds (8.9), and assists (a mighty 0.8), and FT% (74.6) last season? All whilst blocking 1.9 shots a night (and goaltending at least a couple more), dumping it in at 54.1% from the floor, and playing in all 82 games? Or are people still too pissed off that he never became the all-star that they —and Billy King— once dreamt of him being?

66. PEJA STOJAKOVIC, GF, Hornets.
Fresh off signing some zany free-agent pact, Peja was disappointing long before he took the year off to rest his achey breaky back. But, such said, even then the Serbian sniper was nailing 2.6 threes a game at 40.5%. Whilst his health the past couple seasons has turned Stojakovic into a perpetual question-mark, taking a flyer seven rounds in on a guy who could average 18, 5, and nearly three three-balls each outing is a calculated risk that could reap sweet rewards.

67. DAVID LEE, F, Knicks.
The arrival of Zach Randolph will’ve, in many people’s minds, had a huge negative impact on David Lee’s fantasy value. But, here’s the thing: last year, he needed only 29 minutes a night to post his 10.7 PPG and 10.4 RPG. Plus, his insane percentages —60.0 FG%, 83.1 FT%— make him effective no matter what the burn. My guess: his stats may come down a shade, but not enough to have him freefalling as far as #84, his current Yahoo! rank.

68. DANNY GRANGER, F, Pacers.
Last year I was watching an Indiana game, and heard a commentator remark that Granger “wasn’t really a three-point shooter” when speaking of which Pacer might take a down-the-stretch three. Obviously, said talking-head didn’t do fantasy in his spare-time. For, anyone who owned Granger would know that the three was the sharpest tool in his shed; the Lobo hitting 110 triples at 38.2%. Unfortunately, Granger’s steal/block totals were almost exactly the same as his rookie year, despite the extra 1000 minutes he played on the season; meaning, anyone hoping he’d become a kind of b-grade Gerald Wallace remained disappointed.

69. AL HARRINGTON, FC, Warriors.
Has anyone else noticed that “Babyfat” Al Harrington is replicating Sam Perkins’ career? From lithe, defensively-aggressive swing-forward, to chubby, slow-footed, vertically-challenged centre chucking up threes at a ridiculous rate, Harrington is but a few tokes away from being the Big Smooth all over again. Last year, Harrington played C in both Indiana and Oakland, drilled 127 three-balls at 43.3%, and, once arrived in Don Nelson’s drunken offence, posted 17.0 PPG and 6.4 RPG a contest. Sure, his passing numbers are a disaster and his hustle-board stats surely poorly, but portly Al’s C eligibility and burgeoning deep-ball game make him a solid selection this far into things.

70. ZACH RANDOLPH, PF, Knicks.
Having a guy who averaged 23 and 10 this far down, below a teammate who averaged just 10 per contest, might seem strange, but beyond his robust scoring totals, Randolph’s fantasy game slips quickly away; his meagre 15 blocks contributing to him having as many turnovers as assists, steals, and blocks combined. If Eddy Curry misses any length of time, Randolph will still be a strong pickup; otherwise, his likely 18 and 9 returns make him a potential fantasy disappointment.

71. ANDRE MILLER, PG, Sixers.
Just as long as you don’t expect him to hit any threes at all, Dr.Dre is a solid yet most unsexy PG pickup. His assists took quite a hit when he went from Furious George’s stat-happy Nuggets machine to being but the lesser of two Andres in the Philly backcourt; dropping a whole two a game. Meaning, these days he's a limited (steals/assists) contributor more than undervalued fantasy factor.

72. ANDREW BOGUT, C, Bucks.
If he can get his FT% out of the toilet, the Association’s proudest Essendon Bomber could be a robust far-into-the-draft fantasy selection; a passing centre (3.0 APG) whose 12.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 55.3 FG% are solid big-man returns. Oh, and he’s still only 22.

73. BEN WALLACE, FC, Bulls.
So, um, I wouldn’t go anywhere near him. But anyone who averaged 10.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG, and 2.0 BPG last time out still has fantasy value, no matter how putrescent their offensive output, no matter how noticeably they’re slipping at 33 years of age with their athleticism starting to wane. Tyson Chandler he ain’t.

74. ANDRIS BIEDRINS, C, Warriors.
Given there’s no knowing what role Nellie’s sketched out in his beer-drinking basketball barney for Biedrins to fill, luckily the heavily hair-gel’d Latvian Orthodox beanpole produces in limited tick; last go’s 9.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 1.7 BPG coming in just 29 minutes per. Of more concern is his late-season swoon. In the Warriors’ final 11 runs, where the Bay Area Bombers went 9-2 to pinch a playoff spot, Biedrins averaged but 22.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, and 0.8 blocks. Oh, and, if Brandan Wright shows anything, his minutes will come at Biedrins’ expense.

75. RANDY FOYE, G, Timberwolves.
Whilst most other positions for the T-Pups're in total flux, here’s one thing we know: Foye will run the one. And, unlike last year, get to play through his mistakes. Given how horrifically he struggled with TOs as a rook, it’s hard to get too excited about Randy Randy, but the games in which he played over 30 minutes offered some suh-weet stats: 15.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, and 1.3 3PFG. And, for a guy who shot 43.3% for the year, his final 16 games show an interesting FG% return: 50.0% exactly. Whilst it’s still to-be-seen whether he, like Chauncey Billups, can one day become an actual genuine NBA point guard, Foye will definitely experience the second-year jump this coming campaign.

76. RICKY DAVIS, GF, Timberwolves.
From here, Ricky Ricky could actually be either boon or bust. At this stage it’s eminently possible that he could become the leading scorer and #1 shot-taker on the young ex-Celtics, trying to lead the only way he knows how (ie: jacking it up). Or, he could lose out minutes to Foye, Brewer, McCants, Green, Buckner, Jaric, Gomes, and the teeming Timberwolf masses; eventually being essentially ‘benched’ in favour of developing the kids. In fact, he could start the season piling up points like crazy, then end it sitting aside so ’Sota can “develop” Gerald Green. Or, he could actually find his minutes being heavily reduced, until being dealt to a contender at the deadline; or, even, being waived with a month or so to go, so he can sign on somewhere else. Or, he could die in a nightclub gunfight. Given such unpredictability, count me as squirmy on Ricky's prospects.

77. MORRIS PETERSON, GF, Hornets.
Last year, Peterson was a flaccid fantasy pick: his minutes plummeted to 21 a game, and he received 11 DNP-CDs. Yet, when not bound to the bench, Mo Pete was ever-productive: hitting 106 threes, whilst posting per-40-minute averages of 16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. This year, suiting up for the eternally banged-up Hornets, Peterson could potentially average 40 minutes a game. Making him, one year on, the sweetest of fantasy sleepers.

78. T.J. FORD, PG, Raptors.
Whilst the TJ/Chuckles trade was always going to be a basketball/chemistry/karma windfall for the Raps, it wasn’t obvious how much Ford’s fantasy game would benefit. Leading the T-Dot playoff party charge, Ford went completely career-high mad, cranking out 14.0 PPG, 7.9 APG, and 1.4 SPG, whilst raising his FG% to an almost-passable 43.6. All whilst playing six less minutes a night than he did for the Bucks the year prior. This coming season, his tick could actually rise, as Sam Mitchell may actually realise that playing Ford and José Calderón together is quite the bright idea.

79. ANDREA BARGNANI, F, Raptors.
Cats who both block shots and bomb threes’re rare, and Bargnani showed he could do each productively in a way-up-and-down rookie turn, dropping 2.4 threes and swatting 1.3 shots per 40 minutes. In the 22 games he played over 30 minutes as a rookie, Bargnani posted 15.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 0.9 BPG, and 2.4 triples, and, with a rough year under his Italian leather belt, his numbers could even be better than that, for 07/08 in total. Installed as Toronto’s starting centre for the foreseeable future, the Italian Stallion should ride his way into genuine fantasy productivity this season.

80. STEPHON MARBURY, PG, Knicks.
Did you know that ‘In The Truck’ had three 40-point games last season? AKA: as many as Dirk, LeBron, and Melo combined? He also ended up with averages of 16.4 and 5.4, ripped a steal a night and hit 1.7 threes per. He’s a mere shadow of the Starbury that existed before Larry Brown ruined his career, but Marbury still holds fantasy value; especially since he’ll likely be draft-day poison in most leagues. Given he’s, y’know, morphed into the Tom Cruise of basketball.

81. ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKAS, C, Cavaliers.
To draft Big Z is to flog a dying horse. There’s still some life left in the beast. But only just.

82. RICHARD HAMILTON, SG, Pistons.
If you’re the kind of guy obsessed with ‘percentages’, drafting Hamilton might be a fine idea. For my tastes, he’s too one-dimensional to ever think of picking up.

83. RUDY GAY, GF, Grizzlies.
Relying on an athlete as laissez-faire as Big Gay Rudy is never a wise idea. But, his rookie stats ooze with potential. In the 32 games he played 30+, Gay went for 16.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, and 1.2 threes per night. If Marc Iavaroni pushes the tempo in Memphis, and Gay gets minutes as an undersized four, his stats could be that good all year; though his FG percentage (42.2%) seems unlikely to pick up no matter what situation he finds himself in.

84. SHANE BATTIER, SF, Rockets.
Fantasy basketball’s greatest across-the-boxscore blender since Doug Christie. That said, with all the new blood in Houston, will his numbers slide to the point of inconsequence? Should Luis Scola actually be in this draft position?

85. DORELL WRIGHT, SF, Heat.
Repeat after me: the 15 times Wright played 30+ minutes last year, he averaged 12.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, and 1.3 BPG. This year, with Jason Kapono and James Posey gone, he could play 30+ every single night.

86. MONTA ELLIS, G, Warriors.
Okay, he finished in the top ten in SPG last year, and shot a pretty robust 47.5% from the floor on his way to a super-breakout 16.5 PPG. But, isn’t anyone else worried that the Warriors have brought in Marco Belinelli and Troy Hudson? And might look to have Kelenna Azubuike in the rotation? And could play Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes on the wings more than up front? So, then, we must ask: Is Ellis still going to get 30+ minutes per? And will he lay off the bricklaying from distance, and Tony Parker his way to a higher ranking by constantly penetrating? Of course, if B-Diddy gets hurt, his value goes through the roof. Otherwise, colour me cautious.

87. RAJON RONDO, PG, Celtics.
Though it’s tough to pick a guy who probably won’t even average in double-figure points this early, Rondo should post some healthy assist numbers, and could quite easily lead the league in steals. But, whilst that’s the good stuff, know that there’re going to be a few 4, 2 and 4 type nights in there, too.

88. BORIS DIAW, FC, Suns.
Fitter, faster, stronger, less resembling a roasting gosling, Boris is back in the valley of the shadow of Nash, hoping to live down the letdown campaign he posted last-time out, in which his numbers took a tumble from the out-of-the-box MIP go-round that preceded such. With Grant Hill in town, it’s possible Boris could get even less burn than the 31 per he ran last season. But, it’s also likely that Diaw won’t be as lame in his court-time as he was in the second-half of last season.

89. JAMAL CRAWFORD, SG, Knicks.
If percentages’re your bag, you might want to steer clear of Jamal. But anyone in on high-volume jacking, points in bunches, and underrated assists should feel free to apply.

90. RAJA BELL, SG, Suns.
2.6 threes per game at 41.3%.

91. KYLE KORVER, SF, Sixers.
Whilst Kylie Kutcher cranked only an astonishingly meek 307 triple-tries last season (he hit 132, at 43.0%), he upped his scoring to a career-high 14.4 per, and shot a blistering 91.4% at the line. On a Sixers team forever in need of any kind of offensive spark, he could score even more this time around. And, hopefully his made threes’ll get back somewhere near the 205-a-season he averaged the two years prior to last.

92. BRAD MILLER, C, Kings.
Was it only two years ago Miller was a top 25 pick? Now, it’s possible all he has left is funny hair and DNPs.

93. CHRIS KAMAN, C, Clippers.
After a 12.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 52.3 FG% turn in 05/06, Kaman was a fantasy bust last season; his inconsistent output finishing up at 10.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG, and 45.1%. This year, with Elton Brand on the sidelines ’til death do us part, the Clippers are desperately in need of anything resembling a warm body inside, let alone a post presence. Kaman’s inevitable place as #1 interior option should, theoretically, get his numbers heading back towards what they were back when the Clips were a playoff squad.

94. NENÊ, FC, Nuggets.
Across the second half of last season, Nenê averaged 15 and 8, with a steal and a block per night thrown in. And shot 61.8% from the floor. It was the long-time-coming delivery on his unspeakable genetically-gifted promise; and such an unexpected explosion that it actually managed to make that idiotic $60mil contract seem less idiotic. But, should anyone bank on Nenê doing this for a whole year? Isn’t he more likely to get hurt than tear it up like that for an entire season?

95. DREW GOODEN, PF, Cavaliers.
So, as we inch ever-closer towards the season, it’s actually growing possible that Anderson Varejão won’t, thanks to Dan Fegan, be showing up to start the season. If that’s the case, Gooden could be on his way to a surprising fantasy campaign. With the arrival of Mike Brown’s bogged-down offence and the emergence of Varejão, Gooden’s numbers’ve dipped for the past couple campaigns; down from the 14.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 BPG, and 81.0 FT% he posted in 04/05, to 10.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.4 BPG, and 69.5 FT% over the past two seasons. If the frizzy-hair’d Brasilian were to skip out on the year, Gooden could easily be a very productive, late-in-the-draft big-man; he still only 26, and still the second-most talented Cavalier.

96. TROY MURPHY, FC, Pacers.
Last year Murphy was completely out of his element amidst the frenzy of Nellie Ball, but he still found time to hit 58 threes at 40.0%. This year, playing for three-happy Jim O’Brien, as the Pacers’ starting centre, the southpaw’ll certainly up those deep-ball numbers. If he can get his RPG back anywhere near his career form (he averaged 10.4 over the previous two seasons before last year’s dreadful 6.0 per), Murphy could be a surprising fantasy factor.

97. AL HORFORD, FC, Hawks.
In four preseason contests thus far, the #3 pick has averaged 10.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 0.7 BPG, 50% FG, in 27 MPG. And this for a Hawks team already running their regular-season rotation. As the season progresses, it shouldn’t be hard for the incredibly-talented Horford to garner even more minutes; he only needing beat out offensive liability Smelldon ‘Downsy’ Williams and defensive liability Zaza Pachulia to get more burn. Horford’s court sense and deft passing skills should mean, when he does play, that he’ll avoid the turnover problems that mar so many rookie bigs. Drafting NBA freshmen is always a fantasy gamble; but Horford’s double-double potential and shotblocking skills offer more reward than other around-these-parts big-men like Chris Wilcox and Udonis Haslem.

98. GRANT HILL, SF, Suns.
Yeah, sure, he’s the injury risk, and, last year, his game seemed to decline to the point where he was just the (incredibly accurate) mid-range jump-shooter. But playing for Phoenix does strange things to men, and I’m guessing that more of Hill’s once-complete game will come out to shine. In two exhibition games in hideous purple-and-grey, Hill’s gone for 14.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and even hit two threes, as many as he made in each of his previous two seasons in Orlando.

99. CHUCKY ATKINS, Nuggets.
Last year, ever-chuckin’ Chucky had a very productive season when he was allowed to run the show for the Grizzz. In the 30 games in which he hit the floor for 30+, Chucky chucked up 17.5 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 2.3 threes at 38.6%. Part of this was playing for a Memphis team lacking offensive options, and part of this was Tony Barone’s run-and-gun fun. But, taking his bag to Denver won’t hurt such; and, should he step into Steve Blake’s vacated PG role, Chucky’ll have a green light to chuck it on a team in desperate need of shooting.

100. CHANNING FRYE, FC, Trailblazers.
Having burst into the NBA consciousness as a jump-shooting, pick-and-roll-running rookie deluxe, Frye tumbled into a sophomore slump in his second season; his numbers down across the board. Especially offensively: he dropping from 47.7% to 43.3% from the floor, on the way down from 12.3 to 9.5 PPG, even though he was getting more minutes. Possibly a victim of Isiah Thomas’s coaching limitations and/or the toxic sludge of MSG chemistry, Frye has been liberated, arriving on a Portland team in desperate need of able-bodied big-men. It would take only an injury to the fore’er-injured Joel Przybilla to have Frye clocking 35+ a night. His per-30-minute averages across his first two years go: 12.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.8 BPG. Finding himself in a more productivity-conducive environment, the still-young Frye could easily improve on those numbers, and is a nice end-of-draft type sleeper.

128. J.J. REDICK, G, Magic.
Do it. Just do it.

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