I've long dreamt that Phil Jackson would one day play Sasha Vujacic more. You can take your Kobe. For me, there’s little that’s as entertaining on the Lakeshow as when Dr.Phil inserts the skinny Slovenian, and turns him loose for a few mere minutes per half. Not merely because Vujacic's puppydog approach to the game fills me with a quiet joy, but because the role Jaxxx has carved out --wait, that should sound more spiritual/intellectual... um... the role the Zenmaster has imagined-- for one wee Aleksandar Vujačić is a conceptual kind of high-comedy. Blessed/cursed with a Laker roster wholly lacking a Rodman-like buffoon or Fox-like ham, Lucky Phil’s choices for token ‘goon’, these days, are thinner than Sasha's legs. So, when the greatest-coach-that-ever-whistled wants to do something so blacktop as annoy the opposition, he turns to his babyfaced, 23-year-old, metrosexual European point-guard. Really. Vujacic, in return, gets right up into the grill of his opposite number, playing the run-with role once filled, in LA, by the immortal Tyronn Lue. Vujacic's defence is, in a purely basketball sense, more liability than anything else; it more personal harrassment than solid containment as part of a working five-man unit. Sasha V's over-aggressive, over-pursuing defence actually means that he gets burnt, often, especially by better guards. Steve Nash, famously, has a quizzical look on his face each time he beats the up-too-close Vujacic off the dribble. Yet, even the Nasty Nash gets a little, um, nasty with Sasha up on him, and this is par for the Vujacic course: he totally pisses off the opposition.
To that end, I've often long'd for Vujacic to hit the court more often; to have more moments in which theoretical, self-styled gangstas like Allen Iverson flip out that this white weenie is all up in their inherently macho faces. This would have the appealing trickle-on effect of making Sasha at least some sort of fantasy player (for he does take a lot of threes). I can only imagine that opposing GMs would be Nash-like in their annoyance if you had Sasha Vujacic sticking it to them in a head-to-head showdown. These dreams of mine resurfaced yesterday, when Vujacic went for 15 points in an impressive 23-minute turn in the run-and-gun game in Hawai'i against the Warriors. I know that such is a pure fantasy mirage --15 points is a higher total than Sasha post'd in all but two games last year-- but, for a brief moment, I was left to remember my dreams of having Sasha V on hand as an annoying villain; both for the Lakers, and, more fondly, for my own fantasy squad. Alas, alas, when the morning-after comes, once more dreams die, crashed upon the rocks of reality.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
The Boxscore Watchin'!: Day One.
Whilst there've been a couple of boxscores trickling over from Europe already, t'day marked the beginning of the preseason schedule, in earnest; meaning there were numerous games, numerous stories, and numerous lessons to learn. To the roundup!:
DAVID LEE, ISIAH'S SECOND-LEAST HATED WHITE PERSON (BEHIND JAMES DOLAN)!
Dearest Zekeypoo: I know it's been a difficult summer, and all, what with trying to work out the logistics of that weird Dan Dickau/Jared Jordan trade thing, and trying to sketch together the details of Jerome James's potential buyout, and trying to psych out Demetris Nichols into playing in Italy rather than daring to show up, and trying to find out Zach Randolph's whereabouts on the eve of camp, and trying to find a taker for Jared Jeffries and that stupid contract you signed him to last year, and trying to clarify the distinctions between men of different ethnicities using the word 'bitch' in reference to women of different ethnicities (and, whilst I've got you here, it's been bugging me all week: what if a half-Japanese, half-Kurdish man calls a half-Hawai'ian, half-Tibetan woman a bitch?), and trying to work out whether the phrase "very, very innocent" actually makes linguistic sense, and trying to come up with an offensive scheme that can possibly involve both Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry at the same time, but, I was wondering, over this long, hot, finally-over summer —the summer of intern love!— have you found a way to get David Lee on the court more than 29 minutes a game? Other than, y’know, hoping Eddy (No, not Whoopi Goldberg, silly! That guy with the heart defect!) injures his shoulder in training camp? I noticed you played Lee 31 minutes in tonight’s meaningless preseason game. Meaning, once the stakes get higher, he’s surely gonna play more, right? Like, you’re pretty much not going to sit him at all, no? Given how he’s, y’know, the team’s best player, and best defensive player, and best rebounder, and best off-the-ball player, and best passer on the nights when Stephon’s not quite ‘in the game’, and best hustler, and best source-of-inspiration, and best loved by the crowd. You’re not going to bench him in favour of, say, running Curry and Randolph together, endlessly, pig-headedly, even though it’s clear they’re not gelling, are you? Or bench him to try and ‘showcase’ James or Jeffries or Malik Rose for a trade that’ll never come, right? I’m sorry to ask. These questions are so dumb and obvious, but, for some reason, I feel the need to check in with you, just to make sure we’re on the same page. I know we are. I don’t give a fuck about white people, too. Even ones that average double-doubles in minutes limited only by coaching idiocy. Love, Stan, Your Biggest Fan.
J.J. REDICK, ALSO WHITE!
The other day I, in all my prognosticatory wisdom, spent whole paragraphs detailing why JJ Redick was a piss-in for fantasy-friendly role-player this season, breaking down the statistical reasons that everyone’s most favouritest ever Dookie would be a beloved addition to any final-round-picking fantasy squadron. Whilst tonight didn’t prove me wrong —30 minutes, 10 points, 1/3 threes— it did make me realise something that I should’ve thought of well before I ever committed those words to, uh, print (browser?). Cheering for JJ Redick is as much fun as you’d imagine. My public-declaration of Redick’s potential makes me feel like I should be pulling/rooting/other-double-entendres for him already, given that positive results would only validate my beliefs, and my opinions, and the very existence of this weblog. Yet, after one game, I’m wishing my own fantasy draft/s will roll around, so I can have people other than JJ to cheer for (I mean, other than just Eddie House). Like, last year, in one league, I drafted Mike Dunleavy Jr. Whilst his eventual output ended up justifying his selection, there was not a single day in the entire season when I felt excited to be owning Lil’ Dunny. Not to mention that every one of the 450-odd trades I proposed with Junior as part of the package were rejected with an Eatonesque viciousness by opposing GMs. Apparently, this painful life-lesson taught me nothing at all; for already I have talked myself into owning JJ Redick(!!!) for the forthcoming fantasy season. Thankfully, today’s boxscore watching has made me wake up to the obvious: to own the most abhorrent sporting poet this side of Stu Scott would be an utterly joyless experience, from day one.
MIAMI RUNS OUT D-LEAGUE SQUAD!
Ladies and gentleman, Michael Doleac! In the absence of Shaquille O'Neal, Udonis Haslem, Antoine Walker, Dwyane Wade, Smush Parker --a quintet that, you'd guess, will end up starting at least one game together, as five-man-unit, this season-- and top reserve Alonzo Mourning, Doleac was the only Riley-friendly member of the Del Boca Vista Heat's senior's circuit that hit the court; the Shufflin' Ute looking like he was working off about three years worth of rust in a (futile) attempt to prove he's more than just one big expiring contract with a blonde buzzcut. With the actual, y’know, team absent, Rilezzz actually got to trot out some limbre young legs in Miami's opening run; an 86-103, intensity-lacking pasting at the hands of the Pistons that was over early. Meaning, Daequan Cook actually got on the court; something that, rest assured, won't happen once the season begins. Whilst Dorell Wright, of course!, impressed in his game-high 31 minutes --9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks-- the rest of the roster resembled guys gunning it in a glorified open tryout; the Heat having less NBA-calibre talent on the floor than last April's Milwaukee Bucks. In regards to such: Marcus Slaughter got a jump on playing his way into one of the vacant roster-spots, and tiny Brian Chase looked roughly a dozen times better than Chris Quinn, the babyfaced Irishman who rather looks a dead roster-spot walking. A question for another day: how on earth did Chris Quinn get an NBA shot, whilst Chris Thomas never did? Oh, and, PS: Penny Hardaway = DNP-CD.
NO-NECK JOHNSON, WORST PLAYER TO EVER SCORE 40 IN A PLAYOFF GAME!
Not that there’s anything wrong with being the Hawks’ fourth-string point-guard, or going 0/5 with 0 assists in 10 pre-season minutes, or, for that matter, in having no neck, but, um, could it really have only been 17 months ago that No-Neck Johnson was hanging 40 points on Jason Kidd’s large head in a playoff game? Wha’ Happened? The guy who was stumbling, stiff-legged, about for Atlanta tonight looked like he’d have trouble scoring 40 points in a one-on-none game, let alone someone who can be counted on for ever coming close to that, ever again, in an NBA game. With Speedy Claxton roughly five minutes away from his latest broken bone, and Acie Law IV seeming like a rather suspect lottery selection, once more Atlanta fans, in their teeming dozens, are anxiously awaiting the return of Tyronn Lue.
DAVID LEE, ISIAH'S SECOND-LEAST HATED WHITE PERSON (BEHIND JAMES DOLAN)!
Dearest Zekeypoo: I know it's been a difficult summer, and all, what with trying to work out the logistics of that weird Dan Dickau/Jared Jordan trade thing, and trying to sketch together the details of Jerome James's potential buyout, and trying to psych out Demetris Nichols into playing in Italy rather than daring to show up, and trying to find out Zach Randolph's whereabouts on the eve of camp, and trying to find a taker for Jared Jeffries and that stupid contract you signed him to last year, and trying to clarify the distinctions between men of different ethnicities using the word 'bitch' in reference to women of different ethnicities (and, whilst I've got you here, it's been bugging me all week: what if a half-Japanese, half-Kurdish man calls a half-Hawai'ian, half-Tibetan woman a bitch?), and trying to work out whether the phrase "very, very innocent" actually makes linguistic sense, and trying to come up with an offensive scheme that can possibly involve both Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry at the same time, but, I was wondering, over this long, hot, finally-over summer —the summer of intern love!— have you found a way to get David Lee on the court more than 29 minutes a game? Other than, y’know, hoping Eddy (No, not Whoopi Goldberg, silly! That guy with the heart defect!) injures his shoulder in training camp? I noticed you played Lee 31 minutes in tonight’s meaningless preseason game. Meaning, once the stakes get higher, he’s surely gonna play more, right? Like, you’re pretty much not going to sit him at all, no? Given how he’s, y’know, the team’s best player, and best defensive player, and best rebounder, and best off-the-ball player, and best passer on the nights when Stephon’s not quite ‘in the game’, and best hustler, and best source-of-inspiration, and best loved by the crowd. You’re not going to bench him in favour of, say, running Curry and Randolph together, endlessly, pig-headedly, even though it’s clear they’re not gelling, are you? Or bench him to try and ‘showcase’ James or Jeffries or Malik Rose for a trade that’ll never come, right? I’m sorry to ask. These questions are so dumb and obvious, but, for some reason, I feel the need to check in with you, just to make sure we’re on the same page. I know we are. I don’t give a fuck about white people, too. Even ones that average double-doubles in minutes limited only by coaching idiocy. Love, Stan, Your Biggest Fan.
J.J. REDICK, ALSO WHITE!
The other day I, in all my prognosticatory wisdom, spent whole paragraphs detailing why JJ Redick was a piss-in for fantasy-friendly role-player this season, breaking down the statistical reasons that everyone’s most favouritest ever Dookie would be a beloved addition to any final-round-picking fantasy squadron. Whilst tonight didn’t prove me wrong —30 minutes, 10 points, 1/3 threes— it did make me realise something that I should’ve thought of well before I ever committed those words to, uh, print (browser?). Cheering for JJ Redick is as much fun as you’d imagine. My public-declaration of Redick’s potential makes me feel like I should be pulling/rooting/other-double-entendres for him already, given that positive results would only validate my beliefs, and my opinions, and the very existence of this weblog. Yet, after one game, I’m wishing my own fantasy draft/s will roll around, so I can have people other than JJ to cheer for (I mean, other than just Eddie House). Like, last year, in one league, I drafted Mike Dunleavy Jr. Whilst his eventual output ended up justifying his selection, there was not a single day in the entire season when I felt excited to be owning Lil’ Dunny. Not to mention that every one of the 450-odd trades I proposed with Junior as part of the package were rejected with an Eatonesque viciousness by opposing GMs. Apparently, this painful life-lesson taught me nothing at all; for already I have talked myself into owning JJ Redick(!!!) for the forthcoming fantasy season. Thankfully, today’s boxscore watching has made me wake up to the obvious: to own the most abhorrent sporting poet this side of Stu Scott would be an utterly joyless experience, from day one.
MIAMI RUNS OUT D-LEAGUE SQUAD!
Ladies and gentleman, Michael Doleac! In the absence of Shaquille O'Neal, Udonis Haslem, Antoine Walker, Dwyane Wade, Smush Parker --a quintet that, you'd guess, will end up starting at least one game together, as five-man-unit, this season-- and top reserve Alonzo Mourning, Doleac was the only Riley-friendly member of the Del Boca Vista Heat's senior's circuit that hit the court; the Shufflin' Ute looking like he was working off about three years worth of rust in a (futile) attempt to prove he's more than just one big expiring contract with a blonde buzzcut. With the actual, y’know, team absent, Rilezzz actually got to trot out some limbre young legs in Miami's opening run; an 86-103, intensity-lacking pasting at the hands of the Pistons that was over early. Meaning, Daequan Cook actually got on the court; something that, rest assured, won't happen once the season begins. Whilst Dorell Wright, of course!, impressed in his game-high 31 minutes --9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks-- the rest of the roster resembled guys gunning it in a glorified open tryout; the Heat having less NBA-calibre talent on the floor than last April's Milwaukee Bucks. In regards to such: Marcus Slaughter got a jump on playing his way into one of the vacant roster-spots, and tiny Brian Chase looked roughly a dozen times better than Chris Quinn, the babyfaced Irishman who rather looks a dead roster-spot walking. A question for another day: how on earth did Chris Quinn get an NBA shot, whilst Chris Thomas never did? Oh, and, PS: Penny Hardaway = DNP-CD.
NO-NECK JOHNSON, WORST PLAYER TO EVER SCORE 40 IN A PLAYOFF GAME!
Not that there’s anything wrong with being the Hawks’ fourth-string point-guard, or going 0/5 with 0 assists in 10 pre-season minutes, or, for that matter, in having no neck, but, um, could it really have only been 17 months ago that No-Neck Johnson was hanging 40 points on Jason Kidd’s large head in a playoff game? Wha’ Happened? The guy who was stumbling, stiff-legged, about for Atlanta tonight looked like he’d have trouble scoring 40 points in a one-on-none game, let alone someone who can be counted on for ever coming close to that, ever again, in an NBA game. With Speedy Claxton roughly five minutes away from his latest broken bone, and Acie Law IV seeming like a rather suspect lottery selection, once more Atlanta fans, in their teeming dozens, are anxiously awaiting the return of Tyronn Lue.
Monday, October 8, 2007
The Alarm-Bells Sound!
Halt! Do you hear them ringing? The alarm bells? Pay heed, Fantasy GMs, and listen to the woe foretold in every toll, listen to the warning sound bewarning thee of these harbingers of boxscore-checking doom. Every year, many formerly-productive fantasy players are drafted, owners believing that these known names bring with them guarantees of statistical glee. Yet, as any wise drafter knows, heeding the advanced signs of players on the wane is one of the great keys to assembling any potent lineup. So, behold! The alarm-bells sound for thee! Draft these behex’d ballers at your very peril!
RICKY DAVIS, Timberwolves.
Beware the unhappy vet on the rebuilding roster. Beware the guy who’ll spend the year in perpetual trade-rumours. Beware Ricky Davis, a headcase whose recent run of solid fantasy seasons should come to an end as the Timberwolves invest minutes in Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, and Ryan Gomes, assumedly give Greg Buckner some court time in an attempt to show trading for him was no mere salary dump, and continue to play Marko Jaric in the vain attempt to convince someone to take on that contract in a trade. To call Minnesota overloaded on the wings is to call Minneapolis cold. I’ve already talked up Mo Peterson’s bounce-back capabilities, now that he’s walking into a wide-open situation in New Orleans; but the recent rise-fall(-rise?) chart of Peterson’s career is analogous to Davis. As in: Ricky Davis is, like Mo Pete a few years back, a genuine fantasy force; a guy who’s averaged 18.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 98 threes over the past two seasons, on two different teams to boot. Yet, Davis’s productivity has been wholly dependent on the minutes he’s played; he having averaged 39.1 MPG the past couple seasons. What would happen if Davis averaged, say, 20 minutes a game this coming campaign? That, my friend, is an excellent question. Whilst every fantasy geek loves extrapolating small samples out into per-40-minute averages, few do it in the other direction. Because you get depressing results like this: Ricky Davis’s per-20-minute averages over the last two seasons: 9.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.5 SPG, with 51 threes. If you’re scoffing ‘yeah, but Davis isn’t going to get only 20 minutes per’, think back to our old pal Mo Pete. Last year, Peterson found himself on a team that was going in another direction. The Raptors had brought in Anthony Parker, Fred Jones, and TJ Ford, and damn sure if they weren’t going to play them. Peterson, in the last year of his deal and not part of the future plans, found his minutes slashed; going from a robust 38.1 to a paltry 21.1 minutes per. This year, Davis is the veteran on a young team heading in another direction. He’s the guy in the last year of his contract. He’s the cat who’s going to watch on as a bunch of other ex-Celtics get minutes ahead of him. He’s a guy who I wouldn’t want to draft onto my fantasy squad. And, yet, Yahoo!’s default rankings still have him at #55. Yikes.
JARRETT JACK, Trailblazers.
I’ve always liked Jarrett Jack’s game. Big, strong, defensively-aggressive, and blessed with a genuine point-guard mentality, Jack is an impressive, evidently hard-working young guy. I, once, actually saw Jack on the street in Portland, back in August 2005, not long after he’d been drafted. I almost wanted to stop and tell him that he was surely going to beat out Bassy Telfair for a job (but, of course, didn't). Such a claim didn’t exactly unfold so, entirely, in his rookie year, but by last season, Jack had clearly emerged as Nate McMillan’s chosen young point; perhaps helped by the fact that Jack surely reminded Coach Nate of himself, back in his playing days up the I-5. On the year, Jack quarterbacked the Blazers to the tune of 12.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.1 SPG. If you limit those numbers to the 56 games he played 30+ minutes (ie. the ones in which he was given decent burn), Jack’s returns were a very solid 14.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.8 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Yet, coming into this season, it hardly seems as if Jack is entrenched as the first option at the point. Firstly, the ever-flashy Sergio Rodriguez generated some mighty impressive passing statistics, and actual optimism, amongst the Blazers’ glum faithful last season. When the off-season came, Paul Allen and Kevin Pritchard apparently held the same perception; Rodriguez being, apparently, thought of as off-limits, whilst Jack was dangled as trade-bait, in hopes of getting another lottery pick to go with the #1 one. That didn’t happen, but later in the draft Portland bought off one of Phoenix’s annually-raffled late-first-rounders, and used it to pick Rodriguez’s Spanish backcourt buddy Rudy Fernández, with whom Spanish Chocolate already has incredibly chemistry (on the Spanish World Championship-winning team of last year, they subbed in together as high-energy reserves, changing up the pace from the Calderón/Navarro starting unit). When draft night ticked over into the second round, Pritchard picked Taurean Green, fresh off running point on a couple Gators’ championship squads. Oh, and, then, they brought back former Blazer Steve Blake, signed as a free-agent after earning some quality burn alongside The Answer in the Nuggets’ lineup late last season. Meaning, Jack is now one of four PGs jockeying for minutes at the helm of the Blazers; McMillan having already talked up both Blake and Green to the media in the past week. Given he’s not the kind of guy who can star in limited minutes, I’d think any reduction in Jack’s burn would kill any chance of him being a meaningful fantasy contributor this coming season. Meaning: dark and difficult times lie ahead.
ANTHONY PARKER, Raptors.
Anthony ‘Don’t Call Me Tony’ Parker was, in a strictly basketball sense, a fantastic addition for the Raptors last season; an athletic, veteran two-guard who could D up the opposing team’s top wing, provide veteran stability, and help cultivate the ‘European’ atmosphere being dreamt of by the League’s only North-of-the-Border survivors. Along with sweaty Spaniard Jorge Garbajosa, Parker was a huge reason the chemistry and culture of the Raps changed into something magical; he contributing mightily to a season that ended up, unexpectedly, in the playoffs. There, Parker played his best ball of the year; barely leaving the court as he averaged 15 a night, and got up in My Cousin Vinny’s frowny-faced grill. Those who watched Parker play in the postseason may not think much is untoward with his #70 Yahoo! ranking; Parker having earnt such via his refined three-point stroke (44.1%) and solid numbers. But, on closer inspection, I think you’ll find his hat is made of out liquorice. Like so many SGs, Parker does little more than score; he averaging just 4 rebounds and 2 assists a contest. But, as his 12.4 PPG may attest, Parker doesn’t even score that much; he posting only seven 20-point games on the entire year. If he were just maintaining the status-quo, Parker could be a half-decent, no-risk pick in the last round, perhaps, but here’s the thing: the Raptors went out in the off-season and acquired Carlos Delfino and Jason Kapono, meaning that the 33 minutes per that Parker played last year may not be a total he matches this season. Especially given that Jose Calderón and TJ Ford should be on the floor, together, at the same time far more this season. In today’s exhibition match against Lottomatica Roma, for example, Mitchell stuck almost wholly to what’ll be his regular ten-man rotation —including playing stud big-man Chris Bosh 30 minutes— and Parker got on the court for but 20 minutes. The result? 5 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists. Add it all up, and Parker comes close to ‘do not draft’ status.
ZACH RANDOLPH, Knicks.
It’s hard for a guy who averaged 23 and 10 to be thought of as a mediocre fantasy player, yet Zach Randolph was just that last season. Despite doing a lot of scoring —and a lot of shooting— Randolph’s career-high points didn’t end up adding up to much. Mostly, because of his Eddy Curry-esque abilities at filling out the rest of the boxscore. Last year, Randolph’s assists, steals, and blocks combined to equal a 1:1 ratio, exctly; 215 each. Randolph was hardly helped by the fact that he can’t get off the floor; his 15 blocked shots a tally worse than (insert tiny guard here) clocked on the season. Or, if you can’t be bothered finding your own funny name: Luke Ridnour, Kirk Hinrich, Jamaal Tinsley, Ben Gordon, and, oh yes, the gingeriffic Brian Scalabrine. In a comedy boon, Randolph is now taking his Eddy Curry-esque game away from the safe confines of the Rose Garden to be booed at MSG, playing alongside, uhh, Eddy Curry. And I, for one, can see it only being a disaster. Remember what happened when Isiah, in all his wisdom, paired Stephon ‘in the truck’ Marbury with Stevie ‘ironically nicknamed’ Franchise? The two guys duplicated skill-sets exactly, making the other redundant. They played poorly when on the floor together, and, when one of them was on the bench, the benched one pouted. Randolph and Curry aren’t quite as sour as either of those little men, but some time on the pine could change that. I can’t see how the two can co-exist. They both demand the ball on the block, and are veritable black-holes when it’s thrown to them. As their assist/turnover ratios show, when doubled, neither of them are crisp with the exit passes. So, when one of them is going to work on the block, the other will be standing and watching. Though Randolph’s rebounds are far superior to Curry’s, he’s not the kind of guy who’s going to work away from the ball; and Curry certainly isn’t. David Lee —one of the very finest young basketballers in all the association— is the perfect guy to play foil to either of these wide-bodied behemoths, but, due possibly to the fact that Isiah don’t give a fuck about white people, Lee was a curious casualty of the Knicks’ front-court minutes-squeeze last year; even though any sane person could see that keeping him off the court for the work of Jared Jeffries/Channing Frye made no sense at all. So, assumedly, Isiah the Coach, insistently out to prove that Isiah the GM makes no mistakes, will be bull-headed enough to play Curry and Randolph as the two-headed monster. Whilst Curry’s value is the one likely to truly plummet —although, given how low his fantasy output is, I’m not sure plummeting is even possible— there’s no doubt that Randolph is due to take a major hit. Whereas, last year, he was playing in a lineup stacked with defensive role-players like Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, and Joel Przybilla, this year he’s coming to a Knicks club quarterbacked by Marbury, Nate Robinson, and Jamal Crawford. Last year, with Brandon Roy missing so much time, Randolph was Portland’s 1 and 2 option most nights. This year, he’s fighting for his shots. It’d be no surprise for his numbers to fall back to their 05/06 totals: 18.0 and 8.0; and it’d hardly be a shock for them to tumble lower, a victim of the caustic chemistry of the Thomas-era Knicks. Given such, and given the holes in the rest of his statistical game, Randolph can only be seen as a total draft risk this fantasy season; certainly not worthy of the fifth-round selection most have him pegged as being.
ROBERT SWIFT, Sonics.
Whether it’s been simply fuelled by the high-comedy value that comes from drafting the flaming redhead, Robert Swift has gathered some momentum, heading into the season, as a great late-round flyer, a potential starting centre who can be picked up as a late-round gamble. But I just don’t see it. Whilst I’m well-aware that Swift flashed plenty of potential as a second-year player (when he averaged 6.4 PPG and 5.6 RPG in just 21 minutes a night), that was two seasons and two coaches ago. This year, Swift —fresh off of sitting out an entire year with an ACL injury— is coming into a crowded frontcourt; one filled with not just incumbents Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox, but newly-added veteran Kurt Thomas. Oh, and, don’t forget, there’s still —still!— project centres Mouhamed Sene and Johan Petro, fore’er looming, ready to be thrown to the wolves whenever a losing streak starts turning everyone’s minds towards the mythological ‘future’. Furthermore, when Seattle decides to go small —running a lineup of, say, Earl Watson, Delonte West, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Chris Wilcox; one that looks pretty good from this vantage— Swift will be edged out of more minutes. Given he’s also averaged a foul every 6.6 minutes he’s been on the floor, in his short career thus far, Swift also seems like he’s prone to foul trouble. And, there’s also reports, already, that Bobby’s surgically-repaired knee is already suffering from tendonitis mere days into training camp. So, why on earth is anyone banking on this guy beating out an array of more-qualified players for minutes, then piling up enough of them to produce at anything approaching a fantasy-friendly level? I, for one, am lost. Perhaps it’s just the rad tatts?
RICKY DAVIS, Timberwolves.
Beware the unhappy vet on the rebuilding roster. Beware the guy who’ll spend the year in perpetual trade-rumours. Beware Ricky Davis, a headcase whose recent run of solid fantasy seasons should come to an end as the Timberwolves invest minutes in Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, and Ryan Gomes, assumedly give Greg Buckner some court time in an attempt to show trading for him was no mere salary dump, and continue to play Marko Jaric in the vain attempt to convince someone to take on that contract in a trade. To call Minnesota overloaded on the wings is to call Minneapolis cold. I’ve already talked up Mo Peterson’s bounce-back capabilities, now that he’s walking into a wide-open situation in New Orleans; but the recent rise-fall(-rise?) chart of Peterson’s career is analogous to Davis. As in: Ricky Davis is, like Mo Pete a few years back, a genuine fantasy force; a guy who’s averaged 18.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 98 threes over the past two seasons, on two different teams to boot. Yet, Davis’s productivity has been wholly dependent on the minutes he’s played; he having averaged 39.1 MPG the past couple seasons. What would happen if Davis averaged, say, 20 minutes a game this coming campaign? That, my friend, is an excellent question. Whilst every fantasy geek loves extrapolating small samples out into per-40-minute averages, few do it in the other direction. Because you get depressing results like this: Ricky Davis’s per-20-minute averages over the last two seasons: 9.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 0.5 SPG, with 51 threes. If you’re scoffing ‘yeah, but Davis isn’t going to get only 20 minutes per’, think back to our old pal Mo Pete. Last year, Peterson found himself on a team that was going in another direction. The Raptors had brought in Anthony Parker, Fred Jones, and TJ Ford, and damn sure if they weren’t going to play them. Peterson, in the last year of his deal and not part of the future plans, found his minutes slashed; going from a robust 38.1 to a paltry 21.1 minutes per. This year, Davis is the veteran on a young team heading in another direction. He’s the guy in the last year of his contract. He’s the cat who’s going to watch on as a bunch of other ex-Celtics get minutes ahead of him. He’s a guy who I wouldn’t want to draft onto my fantasy squad. And, yet, Yahoo!’s default rankings still have him at #55. Yikes.
JARRETT JACK, Trailblazers.
I’ve always liked Jarrett Jack’s game. Big, strong, defensively-aggressive, and blessed with a genuine point-guard mentality, Jack is an impressive, evidently hard-working young guy. I, once, actually saw Jack on the street in Portland, back in August 2005, not long after he’d been drafted. I almost wanted to stop and tell him that he was surely going to beat out Bassy Telfair for a job (but, of course, didn't). Such a claim didn’t exactly unfold so, entirely, in his rookie year, but by last season, Jack had clearly emerged as Nate McMillan’s chosen young point; perhaps helped by the fact that Jack surely reminded Coach Nate of himself, back in his playing days up the I-5. On the year, Jack quarterbacked the Blazers to the tune of 12.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.1 SPG. If you limit those numbers to the 56 games he played 30+ minutes (ie. the ones in which he was given decent burn), Jack’s returns were a very solid 14.1 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.8 APG, and 1.3 SPG. Yet, coming into this season, it hardly seems as if Jack is entrenched as the first option at the point. Firstly, the ever-flashy Sergio Rodriguez generated some mighty impressive passing statistics, and actual optimism, amongst the Blazers’ glum faithful last season. When the off-season came, Paul Allen and Kevin Pritchard apparently held the same perception; Rodriguez being, apparently, thought of as off-limits, whilst Jack was dangled as trade-bait, in hopes of getting another lottery pick to go with the #1 one. That didn’t happen, but later in the draft Portland bought off one of Phoenix’s annually-raffled late-first-rounders, and used it to pick Rodriguez’s Spanish backcourt buddy Rudy Fernández, with whom Spanish Chocolate already has incredibly chemistry (on the Spanish World Championship-winning team of last year, they subbed in together as high-energy reserves, changing up the pace from the Calderón/Navarro starting unit). When draft night ticked over into the second round, Pritchard picked Taurean Green, fresh off running point on a couple Gators’ championship squads. Oh, and, then, they brought back former Blazer Steve Blake, signed as a free-agent after earning some quality burn alongside The Answer in the Nuggets’ lineup late last season. Meaning, Jack is now one of four PGs jockeying for minutes at the helm of the Blazers; McMillan having already talked up both Blake and Green to the media in the past week. Given he’s not the kind of guy who can star in limited minutes, I’d think any reduction in Jack’s burn would kill any chance of him being a meaningful fantasy contributor this coming season. Meaning: dark and difficult times lie ahead.
ANTHONY PARKER, Raptors.
Anthony ‘Don’t Call Me Tony’ Parker was, in a strictly basketball sense, a fantastic addition for the Raptors last season; an athletic, veteran two-guard who could D up the opposing team’s top wing, provide veteran stability, and help cultivate the ‘European’ atmosphere being dreamt of by the League’s only North-of-the-Border survivors. Along with sweaty Spaniard Jorge Garbajosa, Parker was a huge reason the chemistry and culture of the Raps changed into something magical; he contributing mightily to a season that ended up, unexpectedly, in the playoffs. There, Parker played his best ball of the year; barely leaving the court as he averaged 15 a night, and got up in My Cousin Vinny’s frowny-faced grill. Those who watched Parker play in the postseason may not think much is untoward with his #70 Yahoo! ranking; Parker having earnt such via his refined three-point stroke (44.1%) and solid numbers. But, on closer inspection, I think you’ll find his hat is made of out liquorice. Like so many SGs, Parker does little more than score; he averaging just 4 rebounds and 2 assists a contest. But, as his 12.4 PPG may attest, Parker doesn’t even score that much; he posting only seven 20-point games on the entire year. If he were just maintaining the status-quo, Parker could be a half-decent, no-risk pick in the last round, perhaps, but here’s the thing: the Raptors went out in the off-season and acquired Carlos Delfino and Jason Kapono, meaning that the 33 minutes per that Parker played last year may not be a total he matches this season. Especially given that Jose Calderón and TJ Ford should be on the floor, together, at the same time far more this season. In today’s exhibition match against Lottomatica Roma, for example, Mitchell stuck almost wholly to what’ll be his regular ten-man rotation —including playing stud big-man Chris Bosh 30 minutes— and Parker got on the court for but 20 minutes. The result? 5 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists. Add it all up, and Parker comes close to ‘do not draft’ status.
ZACH RANDOLPH, Knicks.
It’s hard for a guy who averaged 23 and 10 to be thought of as a mediocre fantasy player, yet Zach Randolph was just that last season. Despite doing a lot of scoring —and a lot of shooting— Randolph’s career-high points didn’t end up adding up to much. Mostly, because of his Eddy Curry-esque abilities at filling out the rest of the boxscore. Last year, Randolph’s assists, steals, and blocks combined to equal a 1:1 ratio, exctly; 215 each. Randolph was hardly helped by the fact that he can’t get off the floor; his 15 blocked shots a tally worse than (insert tiny guard here) clocked on the season. Or, if you can’t be bothered finding your own funny name: Luke Ridnour, Kirk Hinrich, Jamaal Tinsley, Ben Gordon, and, oh yes, the gingeriffic Brian Scalabrine. In a comedy boon, Randolph is now taking his Eddy Curry-esque game away from the safe confines of the Rose Garden to be booed at MSG, playing alongside, uhh, Eddy Curry. And I, for one, can see it only being a disaster. Remember what happened when Isiah, in all his wisdom, paired Stephon ‘in the truck’ Marbury with Stevie ‘ironically nicknamed’ Franchise? The two guys duplicated skill-sets exactly, making the other redundant. They played poorly when on the floor together, and, when one of them was on the bench, the benched one pouted. Randolph and Curry aren’t quite as sour as either of those little men, but some time on the pine could change that. I can’t see how the two can co-exist. They both demand the ball on the block, and are veritable black-holes when it’s thrown to them. As their assist/turnover ratios show, when doubled, neither of them are crisp with the exit passes. So, when one of them is going to work on the block, the other will be standing and watching. Though Randolph’s rebounds are far superior to Curry’s, he’s not the kind of guy who’s going to work away from the ball; and Curry certainly isn’t. David Lee —one of the very finest young basketballers in all the association— is the perfect guy to play foil to either of these wide-bodied behemoths, but, due possibly to the fact that Isiah don’t give a fuck about white people, Lee was a curious casualty of the Knicks’ front-court minutes-squeeze last year; even though any sane person could see that keeping him off the court for the work of Jared Jeffries/Channing Frye made no sense at all. So, assumedly, Isiah the Coach, insistently out to prove that Isiah the GM makes no mistakes, will be bull-headed enough to play Curry and Randolph as the two-headed monster. Whilst Curry’s value is the one likely to truly plummet —although, given how low his fantasy output is, I’m not sure plummeting is even possible— there’s no doubt that Randolph is due to take a major hit. Whereas, last year, he was playing in a lineup stacked with defensive role-players like Jarrett Jack, Ime Udoka, and Joel Przybilla, this year he’s coming to a Knicks club quarterbacked by Marbury, Nate Robinson, and Jamal Crawford. Last year, with Brandon Roy missing so much time, Randolph was Portland’s 1 and 2 option most nights. This year, he’s fighting for his shots. It’d be no surprise for his numbers to fall back to their 05/06 totals: 18.0 and 8.0; and it’d hardly be a shock for them to tumble lower, a victim of the caustic chemistry of the Thomas-era Knicks. Given such, and given the holes in the rest of his statistical game, Randolph can only be seen as a total draft risk this fantasy season; certainly not worthy of the fifth-round selection most have him pegged as being.
ROBERT SWIFT, Sonics.
Whether it’s been simply fuelled by the high-comedy value that comes from drafting the flaming redhead, Robert Swift has gathered some momentum, heading into the season, as a great late-round flyer, a potential starting centre who can be picked up as a late-round gamble. But I just don’t see it. Whilst I’m well-aware that Swift flashed plenty of potential as a second-year player (when he averaged 6.4 PPG and 5.6 RPG in just 21 minutes a night), that was two seasons and two coaches ago. This year, Swift —fresh off of sitting out an entire year with an ACL injury— is coming into a crowded frontcourt; one filled with not just incumbents Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox, but newly-added veteran Kurt Thomas. Oh, and, don’t forget, there’s still —still!— project centres Mouhamed Sene and Johan Petro, fore’er looming, ready to be thrown to the wolves whenever a losing streak starts turning everyone’s minds towards the mythological ‘future’. Furthermore, when Seattle decides to go small —running a lineup of, say, Earl Watson, Delonte West, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and Chris Wilcox; one that looks pretty good from this vantage— Swift will be edged out of more minutes. Given he’s also averaged a foul every 6.6 minutes he’s been on the floor, in his short career thus far, Swift also seems like he’s prone to foul trouble. And, there’s also reports, already, that Bobby’s surgically-repaired knee is already suffering from tendonitis mere days into training camp. So, why on earth is anyone banking on this guy beating out an array of more-qualified players for minutes, then piling up enough of them to produce at anything approaching a fantasy-friendly level? I, for one, am lost. Perhaps it’s just the rad tatts?
Saturday, October 6, 2007
It's only just begun.
One boxscore in the books, and I'm already feeling pretty good about one of my previously-proffered out-of-left-field super-sleepers for the season. Whilst the Celtics' offence ran wholly through its three All-Stars --Garnett, Pierce, and Allen played 95 minutes, and took 42 of the teams' 76 shots-- there was enough opportunity for my chosen child Eddie House to hang up 14 points in 23 minutes, including 2/6 from deep. Though it's far too early to come to any sort of conclusions, I'd say House has certainly got the early jump on being the instant-offence-off-the-bench for the Celtics; given the projected other starters, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins, are in there for their defence.
There's less significance in Toronto's boxscore, given that they ran out 12 guys, and only played one --Carlos Delfino-- more than 24 minutes. Although, that said, those who got on the court are clearly their top 12; and it seems as if Sam Mitchell is leaning towards having a first unit and a second unit once more. That in itself holds huge fantasy concerns, for if their wings --Anthony Parker and Jason Kapono as starters, Juan Dixon and Delfino as reserves-- do anything that resembles splitting-time, none of them will have any real fantasy value. Meaning that, after Bosh, there'll be a huge drop-off down to Bargnani, Ford, and Calderon as contributors of note; and then no one else. Anthony Parker is getting plenty of good publicity as a worthy 80-something type draft pick, but I just don't see it. As you'll soon discover, Parker is one of the 'rated' guys I'd be going out of my way to avoid...
There's less significance in Toronto's boxscore, given that they ran out 12 guys, and only played one --Carlos Delfino-- more than 24 minutes. Although, that said, those who got on the court are clearly their top 12; and it seems as if Sam Mitchell is leaning towards having a first unit and a second unit once more. That in itself holds huge fantasy concerns, for if their wings --Anthony Parker and Jason Kapono as starters, Juan Dixon and Delfino as reserves-- do anything that resembles splitting-time, none of them will have any real fantasy value. Meaning that, after Bosh, there'll be a huge drop-off down to Bargnani, Ford, and Calderon as contributors of note; and then no one else. Anthony Parker is getting plenty of good publicity as a worthy 80-something type draft pick, but I just don't see it. As you'll soon discover, Parker is one of the 'rated' guys I'd be going out of my way to avoid...
On May Day, May Day, listen for the sound, of the ambulances singing rounds.
The Elvis Perkins-inspired news, today, that Sean May’ll miss the entire upcoming slate was big for two reasons. Firstly, you can pull the big Bobcat from your draft-board. As someone who’s selected May the past two seasons, I know the promise that the cuddly son-of-a-gun holds. If he was actually healthy and actually played 40 minutes per game, May would be some sort of Al-Jefferson-esque young super-stud; his two-year career producing per-40 averages of 19.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 2.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG. Those numbers, of course, are a stat-crunching pipedream. May has, in fact, never played 40 minutes in any single NBA game. And has played 30 minutes only six times. He’s only played 58 games, total, in two years; and his longest consecutive stretch of games has been 23. AC Green he ain’t. Given that former coach Bernie Bickerstaff implied, last season, that May was seemingly unwilling, or unable, to play through pain, the likelihood of him coming back strong from this surgery seems, well, unlikely; his far-in-the-future returns more likely to be a few more years dogged by injuries, then a mid-20s retirement. This May Day may mark the day that May’s career was over before it ever really begun; he going the way of his father, Scott, whose career was curtailed by degenerative knees.
Yet, even before May was completely ruled out for the season, I had already warmed to the following idea: the Bobcats were going to start Walter Herrmann and Gerald Wallace at forwards. Wallace, the Marion-esque specimen he is, actually excels as an undersized four, and Herrmann, like his countryman Andres Nocioni, is more than capable of mixing it up with bigger, burlier players. As interchangeable forwards, they could switch defensive assignments to suit; Wallace able, for example, to chase the quicker perimeter wings, Herrmann to bang with the larger fours. Where the Argentine Fabio really seems a lineup necessity, though, is in his shooting ability. If you signed off early on last season, either as Fantasy GM or NBA viewer, too tired of teams shelving their star players in the chase for lottery balls, you may’ve missed the amazing statistical explosion that happened down in Charlotte. Not only that the team played .500 ball for the final four months of the year —including a 22-18 record the last 40 games both Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor were in the lineup together— but that a big part of that late surge was Herrmann. The Argentine’d spent the first half of his rookie year in warm-ups, gazing on; he appearing in just 8 of the Bobcats’ first 37 contests, every appearance reeking of eau de garbage. It was mid-March before the human ponytail entered the rotation in any permanent capacity, yet in his final 18 games, Herrmann’s first go-round was infinitely more successful than lottery-pick teammate Adam Morrison, whose name has become but a punchline. Because, in that stretch —in which the ever-improving ’Cats went 10-8— Herrmann averaged 17.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG, all whilst shooting a ridiculous 40/83 from three-point range (48.1%!). That late-season splurge was actually just a match of Herrmann’s productivity; his per-40 minute averages 18.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 2.26 3PTM. Herrmann wasn’t simply a guy putting up more numbers in more minutes; he’d been that efficient all year long. By the time the season ended, his statistical prowess wasn’t just theoretical; his 46.1% clip from range (53/115) ranking second in the entire NBA, behind Jason Kapono. With Kapono on the move from Miami to Toronto, you could easily make the case that Herrmann could be going into the year as the league’s most reliable deep-ball threat. And that’s the very reason that the Bobcats need Herrmann on the floor, and the reason I believed he was bound to be a starter even before Sean May’s year was lost to the surgeon’s scalpel. Three of the Bobcats’ starters —Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor— aren’t shooters; even if Crash did cash in 120 three-pointers last year (at, we note, a career-‘high’ 32.5%). To make Sam Vincent’s hoped-for up-tempo offence really work, the Bobcats need as many shooters as possible on the floor. With May out, and Charlotte’s frontcourt depth suddenly looking scant, Herrmann should be a natural for major minutes. And, as any Fantasy GM knows, major minutes are the key to any player’s statistical productivity.
Yet, even before May was completely ruled out for the season, I had already warmed to the following idea: the Bobcats were going to start Walter Herrmann and Gerald Wallace at forwards. Wallace, the Marion-esque specimen he is, actually excels as an undersized four, and Herrmann, like his countryman Andres Nocioni, is more than capable of mixing it up with bigger, burlier players. As interchangeable forwards, they could switch defensive assignments to suit; Wallace able, for example, to chase the quicker perimeter wings, Herrmann to bang with the larger fours. Where the Argentine Fabio really seems a lineup necessity, though, is in his shooting ability. If you signed off early on last season, either as Fantasy GM or NBA viewer, too tired of teams shelving their star players in the chase for lottery balls, you may’ve missed the amazing statistical explosion that happened down in Charlotte. Not only that the team played .500 ball for the final four months of the year —including a 22-18 record the last 40 games both Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor were in the lineup together— but that a big part of that late surge was Herrmann. The Argentine’d spent the first half of his rookie year in warm-ups, gazing on; he appearing in just 8 of the Bobcats’ first 37 contests, every appearance reeking of eau de garbage. It was mid-March before the human ponytail entered the rotation in any permanent capacity, yet in his final 18 games, Herrmann’s first go-round was infinitely more successful than lottery-pick teammate Adam Morrison, whose name has become but a punchline. Because, in that stretch —in which the ever-improving ’Cats went 10-8— Herrmann averaged 17.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG, all whilst shooting a ridiculous 40/83 from three-point range (48.1%!). That late-season splurge was actually just a match of Herrmann’s productivity; his per-40 minute averages 18.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG and 2.26 3PTM. Herrmann wasn’t simply a guy putting up more numbers in more minutes; he’d been that efficient all year long. By the time the season ended, his statistical prowess wasn’t just theoretical; his 46.1% clip from range (53/115) ranking second in the entire NBA, behind Jason Kapono. With Kapono on the move from Miami to Toronto, you could easily make the case that Herrmann could be going into the year as the league’s most reliable deep-ball threat. And that’s the very reason that the Bobcats need Herrmann on the floor, and the reason I believed he was bound to be a starter even before Sean May’s year was lost to the surgeon’s scalpel. Three of the Bobcats’ starters —Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor— aren’t shooters; even if Crash did cash in 120 three-pointers last year (at, we note, a career-‘high’ 32.5%). To make Sam Vincent’s hoped-for up-tempo offence really work, the Bobcats need as many shooters as possible on the floor. With May out, and Charlotte’s frontcourt depth suddenly looking scant, Herrmann should be a natural for major minutes. And, as any Fantasy GM knows, major minutes are the key to any player’s statistical productivity.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Bounce-Back Candidates.
You drafted them last year, they honked it up, now you hate them. You steered clear of them last year, poured scorn on your fellow GMs who picked them, and have vowed never to go there. They weren’t simple injury-victims, but pure under-performers, sometimes drastically. Their names’re now poison, their games now in question. They’re former fantasy contributors who’ve earned the rep as statsheet underachievers. But, my dearest fantasy dorks, their tainted reputation could be your draft-day blessing. Here’s a list of 06/07 strugglers who could be better-than-expected in the coming season:
RAYMOND FELTON, Bobcats.
Plenty of GMs got on Ray-Ray early last year, predicting the big breakout sophomore season for the Tarheel PG. But, whilst peers like Monta Ellis and Deron Williams took hold of greater second-year opportunities and turned in evolutionary seasons, Felton was disappointing. Technically, he’s not a ‘bounce back’ player, because last year he posted career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, et al. But after a second-year leap was expected, Felton actually did a lot of things worse. Even though he posted plenty of career-highs, when taken on a per-minute rate, his scoring, rebounding, and steals were all down in his second year. His turnovers were way up, any way you look at it: jumping from 2.3 to 3.0; almost negating his extra passing productivity (7.0 APG) that came from spending more time quarterbacking the club. But, most painfully, his FG% and 3PFG% both dropped to sinking new depths. Many thought, going into last year, that Felton’s shooting struggles were, in part, the problems of an overmatch’d rookie; but his 06/07 numbers —38.4 from the floor, 30.0 from deep— were atrocious. Now that we’ve established Felton as having been worse in his second year, thinking of him as a ‘bounce back’ guy makes more sense. And coming into this season, Felton has plenty of good karma working for him. Mostly: Brevin Knight has, finally!, left town, meaning Felton'll spend far less time looking over his shoulder. Maybe Brittle Brevin only started 25 games last year, but he was always there. And not merely as some perceived threat to Felton’s job, but as a cat who, more often than not, played alongside Felton, pushing the bigger, younger baller to the two-guard spot. True to such, Felton’s career numbers with/without Knight in the lineup are like night and day: 15.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 8.6 APG in the games BK missed, compared to 11.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 5.2 APG with. Whilst much of this is to do with the extra burn (38.3 MPG to 30.9), on a per-minute basis, whilst Felton’s rebounds are slightly down, his points are a shade better, and his assists soar. Finally, now, installed as a full-time point-guard, Felton could easily average 8+ APG on the year in 07/08, something only five players (Nash, Deron, Kidd, Paul, B-Diddy) did in the league last year. Other optimistic signs for this year are more circumstantial than statistical: Sam Vincent is promising an up-tempo offence, which would only generate more offensive opportunities, and the new coach has been, reportedly, cajoling his young PG to penetrate more. Which should make for a higher FG%, and more free-throw opportunities for the 80% shooter. Things feel good with Felton —again!— going into the season. Hopefully, this year, he can capitalise on his opportunities, and actually make his fantasy owners happy.
RICHARD JEFFERSON, Nets.
Though his fantasy game never really has lived up to its rep, I was astonished to see Richard Jefferson’s default Yahoo! ranking introduced at #153 for this coming season, behind such fantasy luminaries as Chris Duhon, Rasho Nesterovic, Anthony Parker, and Damien Wilkins, and a host of guys whose ranking got a boost last year, but will tumble this year as their minutes are sliced (Jarrett Jack, Chuck Hayes, Ime Udoka, Mikki Moore). True, Jefferson was nowhere near his former self in 06/07, his PPG, RPG, APG, FG%, and especially FT% all on the wane. But, Jefferson spent the year battling injuries; with two lengthy IL stretches limiting him to 55 banged-up games on the season. However, if you look at how Jefferson came back from injuries, and there’re good signs on the horizon. Over the last 19 games of last season, Jefferson averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG and, impressively, 28/71 3PG at 39.4%. Whilst I’m not sold on a return to the fantasy elite for RJ, you can expect those numbers for an entire season, with Jefferson’s percentages from the floor and the charity-stripe hopefully back to their career norms. Whilst it’s not star-making stuff, it certainly sounds like a lot more than you’re going to get from Juan Dixon this season; and Jefferson should easily justify being a fifth-round selection.
CHRIS KAMAN, Clippers.
The K-Monster established himself as a rock-solid, bonafide centre in his third pro campaign in 05/06; posting averages of 12.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 52.3% from the floor. Having shown steady improvements in each season, the thinking on Kaman going into last season was that he was a solid middle-round C selection, with potential for growth. The Clippers, fresh off of almost landing in the Conference Finals, obviously agreed, inking him to a 5-year, $55mil contract extension before the season. Yet, Kaman took a nosedive; his numbers dropping back to 10.1 PPG and 7.8 RPG, with his percentages also taking a hit (although, his blocked shots rose from 1.4 to 1.6). Coach Dunleavy seemed to lose confidence in Kaman, and Kaman lost confidence in himself; the Kamaniac ending up playing 4 MPG less, and being much more erratic than reliable. This year, with Elton Brand done for the foreseeable future, and no real backup centre of note, Kaman is guaranteed to get minutes. PF court-time seems to be, at this stage, totally up for grabs between Ruben Patterson, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton, and Josh Powell; all of whom would probably be better suited to minutes at the SF, and none of whom seem like potential answers as a 5. So, Kaman is going to play. And, with Brand out, he’ll also shuffle up the offensive totem-pole. Corey Maggette is clearly going to be the #1 option, but guys #2 and #3 are Sam Cassell, the perennially-injured playmaker, and the just-turned-32-year-old Cuttino Mobley, who history says will —like Glen Rice, Mitch Richmond, Latrell Sprewell et al— soon be on his way to being washed up. So, Kaman has the potential for greater minutes, and greater responsibility. It wouldn’t be unimaginable for Captain Caveman to bump his numbers back towards 13 and 10. If he could block close to 2 shots per game, too, whilst getting his shooting back above 50%, Kaman would have great value as a centre. And, after last year’s swandive, you can probably claim him in the 8th round.
TROY MURPHY, Pacers.
Yeah, another white centre. Murphy got lost last year in the Don Nelson revolution; which turned him from rebounding rock into chronically inconsistent tease. By the time he was shipped to Indiana in a dud deadline deal, Murphy was having a year from hell. Once suiting up for the Pacers, Murphy got only marginally better; he seemingly never winning the favour of soon-to-be-axed coach Rick Carlisle. On the year, the one-time double-double machine averaged a pathetic 6.0 RPG; making Murphy a complete and utter disaster for those who drafted him on the promise of plentiful rebounds in Nellie’s stat-happy system. This year, Murphy could turn things around. Reports are that he’s spent the off-season adding muscle to his frame, after the previous summer found him shedding weight in a vain attempt to conform to Nelson’s aspirations for him. Which should help when it comes to banging inside. The full-time switch to a slower-pace will also help in that regard. But, most importantly, Murphy has a coach, Jim O’Brien, who might be perfect for utilising his talents. O’Brien has a history of letting his teams fly from long-range; he the guy who let Antoine Walker chuck with impunity, and the one who turned a rookie called Kyle Korver into a deluxe fantasy specialist. Lacking three-point threats on the wings —where Marquis Daniels is a perpetual driver, Mike Dunleavy a struggler, and Danny Granger an accurate if not overwhelming bomber— O’Brien may choose to use Murphy as a matchup nightmare; playing him at the 5, then letting him launch from long-range. Murphy has made a handy 58 threes in each of the last two seasons; but last year saw his percentage jump from 32% to 40%. If O’Brien gives him the greenlight, it wouldn’t be too great a stretch to imagine Murphy hitting 100 3PFG. If he can grab somewhere north of 8 RPG —not a huge stretch given he’s posted three double-double seasons in his career— Murphy could be an intriguing later-round pick. He’s currently going in the 10th round of many drafts, but his deep-range potential and C eligibility make him much more intriguing than more one-dimensional rebounders like Udonis Haslem and Chris Wilcox.
MORRIS PETERSON, Hornets.
Completely falling out of favour with Sam Mitchell last season in the T-Dot, Peterson went from under-the-radar fantasy stud —he averaged 16.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and hit 177 3PFG at 39.5% in 05/06— to a guy so inconsistent he couldn’t justify a place on any fantasy roster. Given he’d been pegged as a solid third-round pick, Peterson was the kind of player who ruined fantasy campaigns. Yet, even in his ‘lost season’ —when his minutes plummeted to 21 a game, and he received 11 DNP-CDs— Peterson still found time to hit 106 threes, and post per-40-minute averages of 16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. Meaning, more than any other player on this list, Peterson could be due the mother of all bounce-back seasons. The smooth southpaw is essentially walking into the role vacated by Desmond Mason; who, given the Hornets' dearth of wing players and numerous injuries, played 34 minutes each night last season. Whilst a return from Peja Stojakovic could curb Mo-Pete’s tick, banking on the Serbian sniper’s health, or that of backup combo-guard Bobby Jackson, is a far larger risk than betting on Peterson, a veritable NBA iron-man. And, with Devin Brown recently inked by the Cavs, the Hornets are going into the season with the same sort of numbers on the wings as last season. I can’t see how Peterson won’t start at the SG, and won’t average at least 30 MPG. And if Peja isn’t good to go, or breaks down again, Mo Pete could be called on to play close to 40 minutes every night. 16, 5, and 200 threes shouldn’t be out of the question. And from a potential 9th-rounder, that’s golden.
RAYMOND FELTON, Bobcats.
Plenty of GMs got on Ray-Ray early last year, predicting the big breakout sophomore season for the Tarheel PG. But, whilst peers like Monta Ellis and Deron Williams took hold of greater second-year opportunities and turned in evolutionary seasons, Felton was disappointing. Technically, he’s not a ‘bounce back’ player, because last year he posted career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, et al. But after a second-year leap was expected, Felton actually did a lot of things worse. Even though he posted plenty of career-highs, when taken on a per-minute rate, his scoring, rebounding, and steals were all down in his second year. His turnovers were way up, any way you look at it: jumping from 2.3 to 3.0; almost negating his extra passing productivity (7.0 APG) that came from spending more time quarterbacking the club. But, most painfully, his FG% and 3PFG% both dropped to sinking new depths. Many thought, going into last year, that Felton’s shooting struggles were, in part, the problems of an overmatch’d rookie; but his 06/07 numbers —38.4 from the floor, 30.0 from deep— were atrocious. Now that we’ve established Felton as having been worse in his second year, thinking of him as a ‘bounce back’ guy makes more sense. And coming into this season, Felton has plenty of good karma working for him. Mostly: Brevin Knight has, finally!, left town, meaning Felton'll spend far less time looking over his shoulder. Maybe Brittle Brevin only started 25 games last year, but he was always there. And not merely as some perceived threat to Felton’s job, but as a cat who, more often than not, played alongside Felton, pushing the bigger, younger baller to the two-guard spot. True to such, Felton’s career numbers with/without Knight in the lineup are like night and day: 15.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 8.6 APG in the games BK missed, compared to 11.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 5.2 APG with. Whilst much of this is to do with the extra burn (38.3 MPG to 30.9), on a per-minute basis, whilst Felton’s rebounds are slightly down, his points are a shade better, and his assists soar. Finally, now, installed as a full-time point-guard, Felton could easily average 8+ APG on the year in 07/08, something only five players (Nash, Deron, Kidd, Paul, B-Diddy) did in the league last year. Other optimistic signs for this year are more circumstantial than statistical: Sam Vincent is promising an up-tempo offence, which would only generate more offensive opportunities, and the new coach has been, reportedly, cajoling his young PG to penetrate more. Which should make for a higher FG%, and more free-throw opportunities for the 80% shooter. Things feel good with Felton —again!— going into the season. Hopefully, this year, he can capitalise on his opportunities, and actually make his fantasy owners happy.
RICHARD JEFFERSON, Nets.
Though his fantasy game never really has lived up to its rep, I was astonished to see Richard Jefferson’s default Yahoo! ranking introduced at #153 for this coming season, behind such fantasy luminaries as Chris Duhon, Rasho Nesterovic, Anthony Parker, and Damien Wilkins, and a host of guys whose ranking got a boost last year, but will tumble this year as their minutes are sliced (Jarrett Jack, Chuck Hayes, Ime Udoka, Mikki Moore). True, Jefferson was nowhere near his former self in 06/07, his PPG, RPG, APG, FG%, and especially FT% all on the wane. But, Jefferson spent the year battling injuries; with two lengthy IL stretches limiting him to 55 banged-up games on the season. However, if you look at how Jefferson came back from injuries, and there’re good signs on the horizon. Over the last 19 games of last season, Jefferson averaged 17.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.6 APG and, impressively, 28/71 3PG at 39.4%. Whilst I’m not sold on a return to the fantasy elite for RJ, you can expect those numbers for an entire season, with Jefferson’s percentages from the floor and the charity-stripe hopefully back to their career norms. Whilst it’s not star-making stuff, it certainly sounds like a lot more than you’re going to get from Juan Dixon this season; and Jefferson should easily justify being a fifth-round selection.
CHRIS KAMAN, Clippers.
The K-Monster established himself as a rock-solid, bonafide centre in his third pro campaign in 05/06; posting averages of 12.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG, and 52.3% from the floor. Having shown steady improvements in each season, the thinking on Kaman going into last season was that he was a solid middle-round C selection, with potential for growth. The Clippers, fresh off of almost landing in the Conference Finals, obviously agreed, inking him to a 5-year, $55mil contract extension before the season. Yet, Kaman took a nosedive; his numbers dropping back to 10.1 PPG and 7.8 RPG, with his percentages also taking a hit (although, his blocked shots rose from 1.4 to 1.6). Coach Dunleavy seemed to lose confidence in Kaman, and Kaman lost confidence in himself; the Kamaniac ending up playing 4 MPG less, and being much more erratic than reliable. This year, with Elton Brand done for the foreseeable future, and no real backup centre of note, Kaman is guaranteed to get minutes. PF court-time seems to be, at this stage, totally up for grabs between Ruben Patterson, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton, and Josh Powell; all of whom would probably be better suited to minutes at the SF, and none of whom seem like potential answers as a 5. So, Kaman is going to play. And, with Brand out, he’ll also shuffle up the offensive totem-pole. Corey Maggette is clearly going to be the #1 option, but guys #2 and #3 are Sam Cassell, the perennially-injured playmaker, and the just-turned-32-year-old Cuttino Mobley, who history says will —like Glen Rice, Mitch Richmond, Latrell Sprewell et al— soon be on his way to being washed up. So, Kaman has the potential for greater minutes, and greater responsibility. It wouldn’t be unimaginable for Captain Caveman to bump his numbers back towards 13 and 10. If he could block close to 2 shots per game, too, whilst getting his shooting back above 50%, Kaman would have great value as a centre. And, after last year’s swandive, you can probably claim him in the 8th round.
TROY MURPHY, Pacers.
Yeah, another white centre. Murphy got lost last year in the Don Nelson revolution; which turned him from rebounding rock into chronically inconsistent tease. By the time he was shipped to Indiana in a dud deadline deal, Murphy was having a year from hell. Once suiting up for the Pacers, Murphy got only marginally better; he seemingly never winning the favour of soon-to-be-axed coach Rick Carlisle. On the year, the one-time double-double machine averaged a pathetic 6.0 RPG; making Murphy a complete and utter disaster for those who drafted him on the promise of plentiful rebounds in Nellie’s stat-happy system. This year, Murphy could turn things around. Reports are that he’s spent the off-season adding muscle to his frame, after the previous summer found him shedding weight in a vain attempt to conform to Nelson’s aspirations for him. Which should help when it comes to banging inside. The full-time switch to a slower-pace will also help in that regard. But, most importantly, Murphy has a coach, Jim O’Brien, who might be perfect for utilising his talents. O’Brien has a history of letting his teams fly from long-range; he the guy who let Antoine Walker chuck with impunity, and the one who turned a rookie called Kyle Korver into a deluxe fantasy specialist. Lacking three-point threats on the wings —where Marquis Daniels is a perpetual driver, Mike Dunleavy a struggler, and Danny Granger an accurate if not overwhelming bomber— O’Brien may choose to use Murphy as a matchup nightmare; playing him at the 5, then letting him launch from long-range. Murphy has made a handy 58 threes in each of the last two seasons; but last year saw his percentage jump from 32% to 40%. If O’Brien gives him the greenlight, it wouldn’t be too great a stretch to imagine Murphy hitting 100 3PFG. If he can grab somewhere north of 8 RPG —not a huge stretch given he’s posted three double-double seasons in his career— Murphy could be an intriguing later-round pick. He’s currently going in the 10th round of many drafts, but his deep-range potential and C eligibility make him much more intriguing than more one-dimensional rebounders like Udonis Haslem and Chris Wilcox.
MORRIS PETERSON, Hornets.
Completely falling out of favour with Sam Mitchell last season in the T-Dot, Peterson went from under-the-radar fantasy stud —he averaged 16.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and hit 177 3PFG at 39.5% in 05/06— to a guy so inconsistent he couldn’t justify a place on any fantasy roster. Given he’d been pegged as a solid third-round pick, Peterson was the kind of player who ruined fantasy campaigns. Yet, even in his ‘lost season’ —when his minutes plummeted to 21 a game, and he received 11 DNP-CDs— Peterson still found time to hit 106 threes, and post per-40-minute averages of 16.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.2 SPG. Meaning, more than any other player on this list, Peterson could be due the mother of all bounce-back seasons. The smooth southpaw is essentially walking into the role vacated by Desmond Mason; who, given the Hornets' dearth of wing players and numerous injuries, played 34 minutes each night last season. Whilst a return from Peja Stojakovic could curb Mo-Pete’s tick, banking on the Serbian sniper’s health, or that of backup combo-guard Bobby Jackson, is a far larger risk than betting on Peterson, a veritable NBA iron-man. And, with Devin Brown recently inked by the Cavs, the Hornets are going into the season with the same sort of numbers on the wings as last season. I can’t see how Peterson won’t start at the SG, and won’t average at least 30 MPG. And if Peja isn’t good to go, or breaks down again, Mo Pete could be called on to play close to 40 minutes every night. 16, 5, and 200 threes shouldn’t be out of the question. And from a potential 9th-rounder, that’s golden.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Super Sleepers.
To fit the definition of a ‘sleeper’, a player has to be someone that barely any fantasy GMs are even thinking of drafting. Every man and Qyntel Woods’ dog is poised to pounce upon the likely likes of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rajon Rondo; second-year guys who circumstance has handed way more responsibility/opportunity than they had last year. And injury-comeback cats like Peja Stojakovic and Kenyon Martin can hardly count; never should a former All-Star be considered an under-the-radar prospect (except maybe Steve Francis). The five guys I’ve honed in on as my super-sleepers are the players no one’s ever dreamed of owning; guys that, at the moment, would be going undrafted even in deep leagues. But they’re all ballers who have enough potential that I’m going to be keeping a careful eye on their preseason form. Of course, any fool can hop onto a sleeper bandwagon after a whole slate of preseason games, so I’m going out on a shaky limb bright and early, picking five ‘who?’ players who I’m thinking may go from non-entity to surprising contributor this coming season; all of whom would be, at this stage, even an outrageous flyer to let loose with in a draft’s final round.
TRAVIS DIENER, Pacers.
All those mocking pundits who dismissed the Pacers’ off-season with “the only addition has been Travis Diener” will soon be eating their words. Sure, Larry Bird’s term at the helm of the Pacers has been absolutely atrocious; he bringing in gangsta after gangsta, seemingly believing that chemistry is best left to four-eyed weenies in white coats. Whilst I’m not promising anything from this Pacers team —except a trip to the lottery— and wouldn’t want to go anywhere near drafting their “franchise player”, Jermaine O’Neal, I’m here to say that the Diener signing will soon be so much more than a punchline. Mostly, because Jim O’Brien has taken over as Pacers coach. See, kids, Obie loves that longball. His 02/03 Celtics cranked up 2155 threes, and 1573 of them were chucked up by guys who weren’t Antoine Walker. And whilst bricklayers like Marquis Daniels and Mike Dunleavy won’t be given too verdant a green light, there’s room for guys other than Troy Murphy and Danny Granger to get it up from range. Coincidentally enough, in his 532 career minutes, Diener has shown he can do exactly one thing in the league: hitting on 43/107 three-pointers in his limited-edition appearances. With no other backup point-guards on the roster and starter Jamaal Tinsley being, well, Jamaal Tinsley (ie. the guy who’s sat an average of 28 games over the last four seasons), Diener looks likely to, at the very least, be given the opportunity to find a role as a three-ball specialist. Yet, if the crusty, cleft-chin’d old coach —a guy promising fans naught but hustle— warms to the furry little white gym-rat, it could all amount to so much more.
REGGIE EVANS, Sixers.
Up until, oh, a couple weeks ago, Philadelphia had a cavernous hole at the four-spot that they planned to plug with, um, I’m not sure. Kyle Korver’s hair, perhaps. With one deal that few NBA fans would’ve even paid attention to, all that’s changed. Gone is the galloping goose Steven Hunter, and in his place is the rebounding machine Reggie Evans. Once again, Evans had the highest rebound rate in the league last year, grabbing a board every 147 seconds he was on the floor. Though he played only 17 minutes a night for Furious George’s Nuggets, Evans hauled in a hefty 7.0 RPG (aka: what Eddy Curry did in twice the tick). Such productivity wasn’t simply a product of the Nuggets’ fast pace and bricklaying ways, but was consistent with Evans’ career form. The wingnut’d warrior has found a place in the league solely through his single skill; he a sub-par performer by nearly every other measure. But every fantasy squad needs a rebounder, and with Philadelphia’s ultra-thin frontcourt needing all the brawn it can cop, Evans is going to be a rebounder deluxe. And, if he can replicate last year’s career-high 54.4% FG clip, he’ll alleviate a lot of the damage that comes from having someone so offensively challenged in the roster. I see no reason why Evans shouldn’t match the 9.3 RPG he grabbed two years ago for the Sonics, and it’s even possible he could crack the double-digit mark on the glass. Whilst his single-skill skillset makes him a late-round, for-need pick at best, here’s the kicker. Right now, Yahoo! has him default ranked at #393. So, in all likelihood, he should be there right at the end.
EDDIE HOUSE, Celtics.
Whilst Rondo’s breakout potential is obvious, I’m playing the hunch that he won’t be the only Celtics guard who cuts the boxscore mustard playing alongside the neo-Big-Three. Sure, it does help that Eddie House has, since back in his Sun Devil days, been a favourite of mine. See, on the blacktop court where I cut my pickup game teeth, when you caught the rock, you jacked it up. No second thoughts, no questions asked. Few players in the League ball with as much ‘Monty Primary’ flavour as House, the high-sock’d, off-the-bench sniper beloved by conscience-free chuckers the globe over. Already on his eighth NBA team in his eighth NBA season, House hasn’t let his itinerate travels become baggage. At every stop, Fast Eddie quickly becomes the fan-favourite. Maybe for the simple fact that, no matter where he lands, he shoots the ball like it’s burning his hands. Throughout his career, House has averaged a three-point attempt roughly every 7 minutes he’s on the floor. Two years ago, playing for Phoenix, he took that to an extreme; attempting 4 deep-balls a night in only 17 minutes per. Playing for a Boston squad that, outside of its superstars, seems a little like a patchwork job, the guess is that House will be able to find minutes. When Boston needs scoring off the bench, he’ll be there. When they need a shooter at guard, to space things away from their man men, House will be there. And, when Rondo is having his obligatory work-in-progress struggles, it may indeed be Eddie who’s brought on to be the ‘veteran’ presence. At the moment, no one’d dare draft House, but I get the feeling that once the Boston minutes shake out, he’ll definitely have a place in whatever passes for Doc Rivers’ rotation.
KYLE LOWRY, Grizzlies.
Whilst we’re working from the incredibly small sample-size that was his 174-minute rookie season, Kyle Lowry’s limited-yet-incredibly-impressive per-40 minute stats look like this: 12.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 7.3 APG, and 3.2 SPG, with 5.7 FTM to boot. Frighteningly aggressive, Lowry’s like a power-forward in a 6-foot point-guard’s built-like-a-power-forward frame: a prolific offensive rebounder, a guy who loves to draw contact, and a bullish defender. Lowry was a huge reason that, two years ago, his Villanova squad could run with four guards; he often playing point-guard whilst really (or spiritually, perhaps) moonlighting as the team’s power-forward. In his scant time in the league last year, before a broken wrist ended his season, Lowry had looked like Jerry West’s first good draft pick of the millennium; and, if he’d stuck around, when the Griz went into tank mode, we would’ve got to see a lot more of him. This year, Lowry comes back into a new fast-paced offence that should suit him to a ‘t’. Whilst Memphis’s backcourt situation is cloudy —Mike Conley, Jr. seems a frontrunner for minutes, Damon Stoudamire doesn’t look like he’s about to be bought out, Juan Carlos Navarro is going to play plenty (though, let’s get this straight: he’s very much a SG), and late-season fantasy hero Tarence Kinsey is looming— I can’t help but believe that Lowry will force Marc Iavaroni to give him some sort of role. Especially if Mike Miller and Rudy Gay end up as the starting forwards, rather than playing the wings; for multi-guard sets are primed for a guy like Lowry, who plays bigger than his stature. As it stands, Memphis’s due-to-be-stat-friendly situation is too loaded with questions to feel safe betting on Lowry; outside of Miller and top-ten guy Pau Gasol, I’m not sure who else will earn enough burn to be a fantasy factor. At the moment, Lowry stands as the longest of shots to be a contributor (Navarro is much more likely), but I like taking the rough(ie) with the smooth, so I'm calling it now. Yeah.
J.J. REDICK, Magic.
Let’s get this straight: Redick is going to start. Even before Tony Battie went down for the year, Stan Van Gundy was always going to shift gears. After the young Magic played at a soporific snail's speed last year under the miserable Brian Hill —wasn’t the second time around so much worse?— there was never any doubt that the Hedgehog would push the pace. Rashard Lewis is bound for the four spot; just as Stan the rookie coach switched Lamar Odom to PF in his first year in Miami. With rebounder deluxe Dwight Howard anchoring the middle, playing Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu at the forwards won’t hurt too much on the glass; and, let’s not forget, both the $116 Million Dollar Man and the Fat Turk stand 6’10, so it’s not like Orlando will be giving up size. What this opens up is a huge spot at the shooting-guard. Into which Redick will step. Trevor Ariza, the other legit candidate, carved out a fine role as a high-energy hustle guy off the bench last year, and that should be one of the few things from the Hill regime that stay the same; this desperately-thin Magic squad needing scoring off the bench. Redick will play with the first five, providing scoring and, in what makes him a fantasy factor, sure three-point abilities. Last year, in his scant rookie-season action, Redick went 38/98 from deep, for a decent 38.8% clip. But, in the 5 games in which he played over 24 minutes, he shot 44.0%, suggesting that, with more minutes, and thus confidence, Redick could be a three-point weapon. And this year, it looks like he’s actually going to get a lot of minutes. If we project him to average a conservative 25 per, and use last year’s numbers as a guide, that’d make for 128; or, exactly the same amount three-point specialist supreme Brent Barry hit last year. But, given that Van Gundy’s pace will generate more offensive opportunities, and more open looks, and create more confidence, and, then, given Redick could cop even more burn, 150 threes isn’t out of the question. So, how many guys made that many last year? Just 14. And two of those, Rocket bench buddies Luther Head and Rafer Alston, look certain not to make a return to such ranks. Meaning, Redick could be in elite three-ball company. Making him more than worth that late flyer.
TRAVIS DIENER, Pacers.
All those mocking pundits who dismissed the Pacers’ off-season with “the only addition has been Travis Diener” will soon be eating their words. Sure, Larry Bird’s term at the helm of the Pacers has been absolutely atrocious; he bringing in gangsta after gangsta, seemingly believing that chemistry is best left to four-eyed weenies in white coats. Whilst I’m not promising anything from this Pacers team —except a trip to the lottery— and wouldn’t want to go anywhere near drafting their “franchise player”, Jermaine O’Neal, I’m here to say that the Diener signing will soon be so much more than a punchline. Mostly, because Jim O’Brien has taken over as Pacers coach. See, kids, Obie loves that longball. His 02/03 Celtics cranked up 2155 threes, and 1573 of them were chucked up by guys who weren’t Antoine Walker. And whilst bricklayers like Marquis Daniels and Mike Dunleavy won’t be given too verdant a green light, there’s room for guys other than Troy Murphy and Danny Granger to get it up from range. Coincidentally enough, in his 532 career minutes, Diener has shown he can do exactly one thing in the league: hitting on 43/107 three-pointers in his limited-edition appearances. With no other backup point-guards on the roster and starter Jamaal Tinsley being, well, Jamaal Tinsley (ie. the guy who’s sat an average of 28 games over the last four seasons), Diener looks likely to, at the very least, be given the opportunity to find a role as a three-ball specialist. Yet, if the crusty, cleft-chin’d old coach —a guy promising fans naught but hustle— warms to the furry little white gym-rat, it could all amount to so much more.
REGGIE EVANS, Sixers.
Up until, oh, a couple weeks ago, Philadelphia had a cavernous hole at the four-spot that they planned to plug with, um, I’m not sure. Kyle Korver’s hair, perhaps. With one deal that few NBA fans would’ve even paid attention to, all that’s changed. Gone is the galloping goose Steven Hunter, and in his place is the rebounding machine Reggie Evans. Once again, Evans had the highest rebound rate in the league last year, grabbing a board every 147 seconds he was on the floor. Though he played only 17 minutes a night for Furious George’s Nuggets, Evans hauled in a hefty 7.0 RPG (aka: what Eddy Curry did in twice the tick). Such productivity wasn’t simply a product of the Nuggets’ fast pace and bricklaying ways, but was consistent with Evans’ career form. The wingnut’d warrior has found a place in the league solely through his single skill; he a sub-par performer by nearly every other measure. But every fantasy squad needs a rebounder, and with Philadelphia’s ultra-thin frontcourt needing all the brawn it can cop, Evans is going to be a rebounder deluxe. And, if he can replicate last year’s career-high 54.4% FG clip, he’ll alleviate a lot of the damage that comes from having someone so offensively challenged in the roster. I see no reason why Evans shouldn’t match the 9.3 RPG he grabbed two years ago for the Sonics, and it’s even possible he could crack the double-digit mark on the glass. Whilst his single-skill skillset makes him a late-round, for-need pick at best, here’s the kicker. Right now, Yahoo! has him default ranked at #393. So, in all likelihood, he should be there right at the end.
EDDIE HOUSE, Celtics.
Whilst Rondo’s breakout potential is obvious, I’m playing the hunch that he won’t be the only Celtics guard who cuts the boxscore mustard playing alongside the neo-Big-Three. Sure, it does help that Eddie House has, since back in his Sun Devil days, been a favourite of mine. See, on the blacktop court where I cut my pickup game teeth, when you caught the rock, you jacked it up. No second thoughts, no questions asked. Few players in the League ball with as much ‘Monty Primary’ flavour as House, the high-sock’d, off-the-bench sniper beloved by conscience-free chuckers the globe over. Already on his eighth NBA team in his eighth NBA season, House hasn’t let his itinerate travels become baggage. At every stop, Fast Eddie quickly becomes the fan-favourite. Maybe for the simple fact that, no matter where he lands, he shoots the ball like it’s burning his hands. Throughout his career, House has averaged a three-point attempt roughly every 7 minutes he’s on the floor. Two years ago, playing for Phoenix, he took that to an extreme; attempting 4 deep-balls a night in only 17 minutes per. Playing for a Boston squad that, outside of its superstars, seems a little like a patchwork job, the guess is that House will be able to find minutes. When Boston needs scoring off the bench, he’ll be there. When they need a shooter at guard, to space things away from their man men, House will be there. And, when Rondo is having his obligatory work-in-progress struggles, it may indeed be Eddie who’s brought on to be the ‘veteran’ presence. At the moment, no one’d dare draft House, but I get the feeling that once the Boston minutes shake out, he’ll definitely have a place in whatever passes for Doc Rivers’ rotation.
KYLE LOWRY, Grizzlies.
Whilst we’re working from the incredibly small sample-size that was his 174-minute rookie season, Kyle Lowry’s limited-yet-incredibly-impressive per-40 minute stats look like this: 12.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 7.3 APG, and 3.2 SPG, with 5.7 FTM to boot. Frighteningly aggressive, Lowry’s like a power-forward in a 6-foot point-guard’s built-like-a-power-forward frame: a prolific offensive rebounder, a guy who loves to draw contact, and a bullish defender. Lowry was a huge reason that, two years ago, his Villanova squad could run with four guards; he often playing point-guard whilst really (or spiritually, perhaps) moonlighting as the team’s power-forward. In his scant time in the league last year, before a broken wrist ended his season, Lowry had looked like Jerry West’s first good draft pick of the millennium; and, if he’d stuck around, when the Griz went into tank mode, we would’ve got to see a lot more of him. This year, Lowry comes back into a new fast-paced offence that should suit him to a ‘t’. Whilst Memphis’s backcourt situation is cloudy —Mike Conley, Jr. seems a frontrunner for minutes, Damon Stoudamire doesn’t look like he’s about to be bought out, Juan Carlos Navarro is going to play plenty (though, let’s get this straight: he’s very much a SG), and late-season fantasy hero Tarence Kinsey is looming— I can’t help but believe that Lowry will force Marc Iavaroni to give him some sort of role. Especially if Mike Miller and Rudy Gay end up as the starting forwards, rather than playing the wings; for multi-guard sets are primed for a guy like Lowry, who plays bigger than his stature. As it stands, Memphis’s due-to-be-stat-friendly situation is too loaded with questions to feel safe betting on Lowry; outside of Miller and top-ten guy Pau Gasol, I’m not sure who else will earn enough burn to be a fantasy factor. At the moment, Lowry stands as the longest of shots to be a contributor (Navarro is much more likely), but I like taking the rough(ie) with the smooth, so I'm calling it now. Yeah.
J.J. REDICK, Magic.
Let’s get this straight: Redick is going to start. Even before Tony Battie went down for the year, Stan Van Gundy was always going to shift gears. After the young Magic played at a soporific snail's speed last year under the miserable Brian Hill —wasn’t the second time around so much worse?— there was never any doubt that the Hedgehog would push the pace. Rashard Lewis is bound for the four spot; just as Stan the rookie coach switched Lamar Odom to PF in his first year in Miami. With rebounder deluxe Dwight Howard anchoring the middle, playing Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu at the forwards won’t hurt too much on the glass; and, let’s not forget, both the $116 Million Dollar Man and the Fat Turk stand 6’10, so it’s not like Orlando will be giving up size. What this opens up is a huge spot at the shooting-guard. Into which Redick will step. Trevor Ariza, the other legit candidate, carved out a fine role as a high-energy hustle guy off the bench last year, and that should be one of the few things from the Hill regime that stay the same; this desperately-thin Magic squad needing scoring off the bench. Redick will play with the first five, providing scoring and, in what makes him a fantasy factor, sure three-point abilities. Last year, in his scant rookie-season action, Redick went 38/98 from deep, for a decent 38.8% clip. But, in the 5 games in which he played over 24 minutes, he shot 44.0%, suggesting that, with more minutes, and thus confidence, Redick could be a three-point weapon. And this year, it looks like he’s actually going to get a lot of minutes. If we project him to average a conservative 25 per, and use last year’s numbers as a guide, that’d make for 128; or, exactly the same amount three-point specialist supreme Brent Barry hit last year. But, given that Van Gundy’s pace will generate more offensive opportunities, and more open looks, and create more confidence, and, then, given Redick could cop even more burn, 150 threes isn’t out of the question. So, how many guys made that many last year? Just 14. And two of those, Rocket bench buddies Luther Head and Rafer Alston, look certain not to make a return to such ranks. Meaning, Redick could be in elite three-ball company. Making him more than worth that late flyer.
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